Balancing agricultural production with other ecosystem services is a vexing challenge. The Yahara River watershed in southern Wisconsin is a place where tensions among farmers, policymakers, and citizens at-large run high because nutrient loss from the agricultural practices of a few drive the impairment of surface waters for many. Reducing manure and fertilizer application, as well as increasing perennial grass cover have been proposed as potential solutions. Using the Agro-IBIS agroecosystem model, we examined 48 scenarios of future land management and climate for the Yahara River watershed to the year 2070. Scenarios included combinations of reduced livestock and increased perennial grassland under alternative climate trajectories. Results suggested that business as usual will lead to further environmental degradation with phosphorus-loading to waterways increasing 13, 7, and 23% under baseline, warmer and drier, and warmer and wetter climates, respectively. Watershed-wide phosphorous yield and nitrate leaching could be reduced by 50%, but only when nutrient application was reduced 50% and grassland cover was increased 50%. Furthermore, water quality improvements only materialized 50 years after modified land management practices were implemented under the most likely future climate. Our findings highlight that improving water quality under a changing climate will require long-term investment and transformative changes to current agricultural land use and land cover. Agricultural management solutions exist but are unlikely to be implemented without policies that incentivize transformative agricultural change.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
Buy single article
Instant access to the full article PDF.
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.
Ahiablame L, Sheshukov AY, Mosase E, Hong J. 2019. Modelling the impacts of grassland to cropland conversion on river flow regimes in Skunk Creek watershed, Upper Midwest United States. River Res Appl 35:1454–65.
Andersson E, Nykvist B, Malinga R, Jaramillo F, Lindborg R. 2015. A social–ecological analysis of ecosystem services in two different farming systems. Ambio 44:102–12.
Asbjornsen H, Hernandez-Santana V, Liebman M, Bayala J, Chen J, Helmers M, Ong CK, Schulte LA. 2013. Targeting perennial vegetation in agricultural landscapes for enhancing ecosystem services. Renew Agric Food Syst 29:101–25.
Bellamy PH, Loveland PJ, Bradley RI, Lark RM, Kirk GJD. 2005. Carbon losses from all soils across England and Wales 1978-2003. Nature 437:245–8.
Bharati L, Lee KH, Isenhart TM, Schultz RC. 2002. Soil-water infiltration under crops, pasture, and established riparian buffer in Midwestern USA. Agrofor Syst 56:249–57.
Bohlen PJ, Lynch S, Shabman L, Clark M, Shukla S, Swain H. 2009. Paying for environmental services from agricultural lands: An example from the northern Everglades. Front Ecol Environ 7:46–55.
Booth EG, Qiu J, Carpenter SR, Schatz J, Chen X, Kucharik CJ, Loheide SP, Motew MM, Seifert JM, Turner MG. 2016. From qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios: Translating storylines into biophysical modeling inputs at the watershed scale. Environ Model Softw 85:80–97. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.008
Brye KR, Norman JM, Gower ST, Bundy LG. 2013. Effects of management practices on annual net N-mineralization in a restored prairie and maize agroecosystems. Biogeochemistry 63:135–60.
Bundy LG et al. 2005. Determining Optimum Nitrogen Application Rates for Corn. New Horizons Soil Sci:2–8.
Carpenter SR. 2008. Phosphorus control is critical to mitigating eutrophication. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105:11039–40. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806112105
Carpenter SR, Booth EG, Gillon S, Kucharik CJ, Loheide S, Mase AS, Motew M, Qiu J, Rissman AR, Seifert J, Soylu E, Turner M, Wardropper CB. 2015. Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA. Ecol Soc 20.
Carpenter SR, Booth EG, Kucharik CJ. 2017. Extreme precipitation and phosphorus loads from two agricultural watersheds. Limnol Oceanogr 2006.
Castellano MJ, Valone TJ. 2006. Effects of livestock removal and perennial grass recovery on the lizards of a desertified arid grassland. J Arid Environ 66:87–95.
Cates AM, Ruark MD, Hedtcke JL, Posner JL. 2016. Long-term tillage, rotation and perennialization effects on particulate and aggregate soil organic matter. Soil Tillage Res 155:371–80. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2015.09.008
Cates AM, Braus MJ, Whitman TL, Jackson RD. 2019. Separate drivers for microbial carbon mineralization and physical protection of carbon. Soil Biol Biochem 133:72–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2019.02.014
U.S. Census Bureau. Quick Facts.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2017. Annual Estimates of the Resident Opulation: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017.
Chen D, Hu M, Guo Y, Dahlgren RA. 2015. Influence of legacy phosphorus, land use, and climate change on anthropogenic phosphorus inputs and riverine export dynamics. Biogeochemistry 123:99–116.
Christianson R, Christianson L, Wong C, Helmers M, Mcisaac G, Mulla D, Mcdonald M. 2018. Beyond the nutrient strategies : Common ground to accelerate agricultural water quality improvement in the upper Midwest. J Environ Manage 206:1072–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.11.051
Clean Lakes Alliance. 2012. Yahara CLEAN Strategic Action Plan for Phosphorus Reduction.
Collick AS, Veith TL, Fuka DR, Kleinman PJA, Buda AR, Weld JL, Bryant RB, Vadas PA, White MJ, Harmel RD, Easton ZM. 2016. Improved Simulation of Edaphic and Manure Phosphorus Loss in SWAT. J Environ Qual 45:1215–25.
Culman SW, Snapp SS, Ollenburger M, Basso B, DeHaan LR. 2013. Soil and water quality rapidly responds to the perennial grain Kernza wheatgrass. Agron J 105:735–44.
Dahal S, Franklin D, Subedi A, Cabrera M, Hancock D, Mahmud K, Ney L, Park C, Mishr D. 2020. Strategic grazing in beef-pastures for improved soil health and reduced runoff-nitrate-a step towards sustainability. Sustain 12.
Dale VH, Kline KL, Wiens JA, Fargione JE. 2010. Biofuels: Implications for Land Use and Biodiversity. Biofuels Sustain Reports:13. www.esa.org/biofuelsreports
Dartt BA, Lloyd JW, Radke BR, Black JR, Kaneene JB. 1999. A comparison of profitability and economic efficiencies between management-intensive grazing and conventionally managed dairies in Michigan. J Dairy Sci 82:2412–20. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(99)75492-5
Davidson EA, Janssens IA. 2006. Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change. Nature 440:165–73.
Diederich KM, Ruark MD, Krishnan K, Arriaga FJ, Silva EM. 2019. Increasing Labile Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Fractions Require a Change in System, Rather Than Practice. Soil Sci Soc Am J 83:1733–45.
Doll JE, Baranski M. 2011. Field Crop Agriculture and Climate Change. 2008:3–6.
El Maayar M, Price DT, Delire C, Foley JA, Black TA, Bessemoulin P. 2001. Validation of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator over Canadian deciduous and coniferous boreal forest stands. J Geophys Res Atmos 106:14339–55.
Ericksen PJ, Ingram JSI, Liverman DM. 2009. Food security and global environmental change: emerging challenges. Environ Sci Policy 12:373–7.
Expo D. 2014. Dane County Agriculture : Value & Economic Impact. :10–1.
Foley JA, Ramankutty N, Brauman KA, Cassidy ES, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Mueller ND, O’Connell C, Ray DK, West PC, Balzer C, Bennett EM, Carpenter SR, Hill J, Monfreda C, Polasky S, Rockström J, Sheehan J, Siebert S, Tilman D, Zaks DPM. 2011. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478:337–42. http://www.nature.com/doifinder/https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10452
Fornara D, Olave R, Higgins A. 2020. Evidence of low response of soil carbon stocks to grassland intensification. Agric Ecosyst Environ 287:106705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2019.106705
Gelfand I, Hamilton SK, Kravchenko AN, Jackson RD, Thelen KD, Robertson GP. 2020. Empirical Evidence for the Potential Climate Benefits of Decarbonizing Light Vehicle Transport in the U.S. With Bioenergy from Purpose-Grown Biomass with and without BECCS. Environ Sci Technol 54:2961–74.
Gillon S, Booth EG, Rissman AR. 2015. Shifting drivers and static baselines in environmental governance: challenges for improving and proving water quality outcomes. Reg Environ Chang 16:759–75. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0787-0
Good LW, Vadas P, Panuska JC, Bonilla CA, Jokela WE. 2012. Testing the Wisconsin Phosphorus Index with Year-Round, Field-Scale Runoff Monitoring. J Environ Qual 41:1730–40.
Goodwin BK, Smith VH. 2003. An ex post evaluation of the conservation reserve, federal crop insurance, and other government programs: Program participation and soil erosion. J Agric Resour Econ 28:201–16.
Graham JL, Foster GM, Kramer AR. 2017. Twenty Years of Water-Quality Studies in the Cheney Reservoir Watershed, Kansas, 1996–2016.
Grolleau G, McCann LMJ. 2012. Designing watershed programs to pay farmers for water quality services: Case studies of Munich and New York City. Ecol Econ 76:87–94. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.006
Hampe A, Petit RJ. 2005. Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters. Ecol Lett 8:461–7. http://doi.wiley.com/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00739.x
Hanson JC, Johnson DM, Lichtenberg E, Minegishi K. 2013. Competitiveness of management-intensive grazing dairies in the mid-Atlantic region from 1995 to 2009. J Dairy Sci 96:1894–904. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2011-5234
Hatfield JL, Boote KJ, Kimball BA, Ziska LH, Izaurralde RC, Ort D, Thomson AM, Wolfe D. 2011. Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production. Agron J 103:351–70.
Helms D. 1991. Readings in the History of the Soil Conservation Service. https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb1043484.pdf
Huisman J, Codd GA, Paerl HW, Ibelings BW, Verspagen JMH, Visser PM. 2018. Cyanobacterial blooms. Nat Rev Microbiol 16:1. http://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-018-0040-1
IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116437108
Jackson RD. 2017. Chapter 15 - Targeted Use of Perennial Grass Biomass Crops in and Around Annual Crop Production Fields to Improve Soil Health A2 - Al-Kaisi, Mahdi M. In: Lowery BBT-SH and I of A, editor. Academic Press. pp 335–52. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128053171000154
Jackson RD, Oates LG, Schacht WH, Klopfenstein TJ, Undersander DJ, Greenquist MA, Bell MM, Gratton C. 2015. Nitrous oxide emissions from cool-season pastures under managed grazing. Nutr Cycl Agroecosystems 101:365–76.
Jarvie HP, Sharpley AN, Spears B, Buda AR, May L, Kleinman PJA. 2013. Water quality remediation faces unprecedented challenges from ‘legacy Phosphorus’. Environ Sci Technol 47:8997–8.
Jarvie HP, Sharpley AN, Flaten D, Kleinman PJA, Jenkins A, Simmons T. 2015. The Pivotal Role of Phosphorus in a Resilient Water–Energy–Food Security Nexus. J Environ Qual 44:1049. https://dl.sciencesocieties.org/publications/jeq/abstracts/44/4/1049
Jarvie HP, Johnson LT, Sharpley AN, Smith DR, Baker DB, Bruulsema TW, Confesor R. 2017. Increased Soluble Phosphorus Loads to Lake Erie: Unintended Consequences of Conservation Practices? J Environ Qual 46:123. https://dl.sciencesocieties.org/publications/jeq/abstracts/46/1/123
Jordan JL, Elnagheeb AH. 1993. Willingness to pay for improvements in drinking water quality. Water Resour Res 29:237–45.
Kragt ME, Gibson FL, Maseyk F, Wilson KA. 2016. Public willingness to pay for carbon farming and its co-benefits. Ecol Econ 126:125–31.
Kucharik CJ. 2003. Evaluation of a process-based agro-ecosystem model (Agro-IBIS) across the U.S. Corn Belt: Simulations of the interannual variability in maize yield. Earth Interact 7:1–33.
Kucharik CJ. 2008. Contribution of planting date trends to increased maize yields in the central United States. Agron J 100:328–36.
Kucharik CJ, Brye KR. 2003. Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) Yield and Nitrate Loss Predictions for Wisconsin Maize Receiving Varied Amounts of Nitrogen Fertilizer. J Environ Qual 32:247. https://www.agronomy.org/publications/jeq/abstracts/32/1/247
Kucharik CJ, Twine TE. 2007. Residue, respiration, and residuals: Evaluation of a dynamic agroecosystem model using eddy flux measurements and biometric data. Agric For Meteorol 146:134–58.
Kucharik CJ, Foley JA, Delire C, Fisher VA, Coe MT, Lenters JD, Young-Molling C, Ramankutty N. 2000. Testing the performance of a dynamic global ecosystem model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. Global Biogeochem Cycles 14:795–825.
Kucharik CJ, Barford CC, Maayar M El, Wofsy SC, Monson RK, Baldocchi DD. 2006. A multiyear evaluation of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model at three AmeriFlux forest sites: Vegetation structure, phenology, soil temperature, and CO2 and H2O vapor exchange. Ecol Modell 196:1–31.
Kucharik CJ, Serbin SP, Vavrus S, Hopkins EJ, Motew MM. 2010. Patterns of Climate Change Across Wisconsin From 1950 to 2006. Phys Geogr 31:1–28. http://bellwether.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=article&id=doi:https://doi.org/10.2747/0272-36188.8.131.52
Laboski C a. M, Peters JB, Bundy LG. 2012. Nutrient application guidelines for field , vegetable , and fruit crops in Wisconsin. :76.
Landis DA, Gratton C, Jackson RD, Gross KL, Duncan DS, Liang C, Meehan TD, Robertson BA, Schmidt TM, Stahlheber KA, Tiedje JM, Werling BP. 2016. Biomass and biofuel crop effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services in the North Central US. Biomass and Bioenergy. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2017.02.003
Larson RA, Sharara M, Good LW, Porter P, Runge T, Zavala V, Sampat A, Smith A. 2016. Evaluation of Manure Storage Capital Projects in the Yahara River Watershed.
Lathrop RC, Carpenter SR. 2014. Water quality implications from three decades of phosphorus loads and trophic dynamics in the Yahara chain of lakes. Inl Waters 4:1–14.
Lathrop RC, Carpenter SR, Rudstam LG. 1996. Water clarity in Lake Mendota since 1900: responses to differing levels of nutrients and herbivory. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 53:2250–61. http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/https://doi.org/10.1139/f96-187
Lathrop RC, Carpenter SR, Stow CA, Soranno PA, Panuska JC. 1998. Phosphorus loading reductions needed to control blue-green algal blooms in Lake Mendota. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 55:1169–78. http://www.nrc.ca/cgi-bin/cisti/journals/rp/rp2_abst_e?cjfas_f97-317_55_ns_nf_cjfas55-98
Liu Y, Engel BA, Flanagan DC, Gitau MW, McMillan SK, Chaubey I. 2017. A review on effectiveness of best management practices in improving hydrology and water quality: Needs and opportunities. Sci Total Environ 601–602:580–93. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.212
Long SP. 2006. Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO2 Concentrations. Science (80- ) 312:1918–21. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114722
Long SP, Ort DR. 2010. More than taking the heat: Crops and Global Change. Curr Opin Plant Biol 13:241–8. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pbi.2010.04.008
Loomis J, Kent P, Strange L, Fausch K, Covich A. 2000. Measuring the total economic value of restoring ecosystem services in an impaired river basin: Results from a contingent valuation survey. Ecol Econ 33:103–17.
Lubofsky E. 2016. The promise of perennials: Working through the challenges of perennial grain crop development. CSA News 61:4.
Lubowski RN, Bucholtz S, Claassen R, Roberts MJ, Cooper JC, Gueorguieva A, Johansson R. 2006. Environmental Effects of Agricultural Land-Use Change The Role of Economics and Policy. Changes:1–82.
Maharjan B, Rosen CJ, Lamb JA, Venterea RT. 2016. Corn response to nitrogen management under fully-irrigated vs. water-stressed conditions. Agron J 108:2089–98.
Mathworks T. 2017. Matlab v. 2017a.
Meals DW, Dressing SA, Davenport TE. 2010. Lag Time in Water Quality Response to Best Management Practices: A Review. J Environ Qual 39:85. https://www.agronomy.org/publications/jeq/abstracts/39/1/85
Meehan TD, Hurlbert AH, Gratton C. 2010. Bird communities in future bioenergy landscapes of the Upper Midwest. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:18533–8. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1008475107
Meehan TD, Gratton C, Diehl E, Hunt ND, Mooney DF, Ventura SJ, Barham BL, Jackson RD. 2013. Ecosystem-service tradeoffs associated with switching from annual to perennial energy crops in Riparian zones of the US Midwest. PLoS One 8:1–13.
Mitchell RC, Carson RT. 1981. An experiment in determining willingness to pay for national water quality improvments. EPA Rep:1–81.
Mitchell RB, Schmer MR, Anderson WF, Jin V, Balkcom KS, Kiniry J, Coffin A, White P. 2016. Dedicated Energy Crops and Crop Residues for Bioenergy Feedstocks in the Central and Eastern USA. Bioenergy Res 9:384–98.
Motew M, Chen X, Booth EG, Carpenter SR, Pinkas P, Zipper SC, Loheide SP, Donner SD, Tsuruta K, Vadas PA, Kucharik CJ. 2017. The Influence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed. Ecosystems:1–15.
Motew M, Booth EG, Carpenter SR, Chen X, Kucharik CJ. 2018. The synergistic effect of manure supply and extreme precipitation on surface water quality. Environ Res Lett 13:044016. http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=4/a=044016?key=crossref.6a31b3285fdbb5a6e957be71da5f87b7
Motew M, Chen X, Carpenter SR, Booth EG, Seifert J, Qiu J, Loheide SP, Turner MG, Zipper SC, Kucharik CJ. 2019. Comparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios. Sci Total Environ 693:133484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.290
NOAA. Daily Summaries Station Details. Natl Centers Environ Inf. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00014837/detail
NRCS. 2013. Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database for Wisconsin.
Oates LG, Undersander DJ, Gratton C, Bell MM, Jackson RD. 2011. Management-intensive rotational grazing enhances forage production and quality of subhumid cool-season pastures. Crop Sci 51:892–901.
Oates LG, Duncan DS, Gelfand I, Millar N, Robertson GP, Jackson RD. 2016. Nitrous oxide emissions during establishment of eight alternative cellulosic bioenergy cropping systems in the North Central United States. GCB Bioenergy 8:539–49.
Panagopoulos Y, Gassman PW, Arritt RW, Herzmann DE, Campbell TD, Jha MK, Kling CL, Srinivasan R, White M, Arnold JG. 2014. Surface water quality and cropping systems sustainability under a changing climate in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. J Soil Water Conserv 69:483–94. http://www.jswconline.org/cgi/doi/https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.69.6.483
Pimentel D, Berger B, Filiberto D, Newton M, Wolfe B, Karabinakis E, Clark S, Poon E, Abbett E, Nandagopal S. 2013. Water Resources : Agricultural and Environmental Issues. Bioscience 54:909–18.
Porter PA, Mitchell RB, Moore KJ. 2015. Reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico: Reimagining a more resilient agricultural landscape in the Mississippi River Watershed. J Soil Water Conserv 70:63A-68A.
Qin Z, Dunn JB, Kwon H, Mueller S, Wander MM. 2016. Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel production: Empirical evidence. GCB Bioenergy 8:66–80.
R Core Team. 2020. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. https://www.r-project.org
Robertson GP, Hamilton SK, Barham BL, Dale BE, Izaurralde RC, Jackson RD, Landis DA, Swinton SM, Thelen KD, Tiedje JM. 2017. Cellulosic biofuel contributions to a sustainable energy future: Choices and outcomes. Science (80- ) 356.
Rodríguez-Ortega T, Oteros-Rozas E, Ripoll-Bosch R, Tichit M, Martín-López B, Bernués A. 2014. Applying the ecosystem services framework to pasture-based livestock farming systems in Europe. Animal 8:1361–72.
Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Müller C, Arneth A, Boote KJ, Folberth C, Glotter M, Khabarov N, Neumann K, Piontek F, Pugh TAM, Schmid E, Stehfest E, Yang H, Jones JW. 2014. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111:3268–73. http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222463110
Russelle MP, Entz MH, Franzluebbers AJ. 2007. Reconsidering integrated crop-livestock systems in North America. Agron J 99:325–34.
Sacks WJ, Kucharik CJ. 2011. Crop management and phenology trends in the U.S. Corn Belt: Impacts on yields, evapotranspiration and energy balance. Agric For Meteorol 151:882–94. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.02.010
Sanderson MA, Adler PR. 2008. Perennial forages as second generation bioenergy crops. Int J Mol Sci 9:768–88.
Sanford GR, Posner JL, Jackson RD, Kucharik CJ, Hedtcke JL, Lin TL. 2012. Soil carbon lost from Mollisols of the North Central U.S.A. with 20 years of agricultural best management practices. Agric Ecosyst Environ 162:68–76. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2012.08.011
Schauberger B, Archontoulis S, Arneth A, Balkovic J, Ciais P, Deryng D, Elliott J, Folberth C, Khabarov N, Müller C, Pugh TAM, Rolinski S, Schaphoff S, Schmid E, Wang X, Schlenker W, Frieler K. 2017. Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. Nat Commun 8.
Schlenker W, Roberts MJ. 2009. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:15594–8. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106
Schreiner KM, Blair NE, Levinson W, Egerton-Warburton LM. 2014. Contribution of Fungal Macromolecules to Soil Carbon Sequestration. http://link.springer.com/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04084-4_16
Schulte LA, Asbjornsen H, Crow TR, Liebman M. 2006. Agroecosystem restoration through strategic integration of perennials. J Soil Water Conserv 61:164A-169A.
Schulte LA, Niemi J, Helmers MJ, Liebman M, Arbuckle JG, James DE, Kolka RK, O’Neal ME, Tomer MD, Tyndall JC, Asbjornsen H, Drobney P, Neal J, Van Ryswyk G, Witte C. 2017. Prairie strips improve biodiversity and the delivery of multiple ecosystem services from corn–soybean croplands. Proc Natl Acad Sci 114:11247–52. http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1620229114
Sen S, Srivastava P, Vadas PA, Kalin L. 2012. Watershed-level Comparison of Predictability and Sensitivity of Two Phosphorus Models. J Environ Qual 41:1642–52.
Sharpley AN, Daniel TC, Edwards DR. 1993. Phosphorus Movement in the Landscape. J Prod Agric 6:492–500.
Sharpley A, Jarvie HP, Buda A, May L, Spears B, Kleinman P. 2013. Phosphorus Legacy: Overcoming the Effects of Past Management Practices to Mitigate Future Water Quality Impairment. J Environ Qual 42:1308. https://www.agronomy.org/publications/jeq/abstracts/42/5/1308
Skopec MM, Lewinsohn J, Sandoval T, Wirick C, Murray S, Pence V, Whitham L. 2018. Managed grazing is an effective strategy to restore habitat for the endangered autumn buttercup (Ranunculus aestivalis). Restor Ecol 26:629–35.
Smith VH, Joye SB, Howarth RW. 2006. Eutrophication of freshwater and marine ecosystems. Limnol Oceanogr 51:351–5.
Smith TE, Kolka RK, Zhou X, Helmers MJ, Cruse RM, Tomer MD. 2014. Effects of native perennial vegetation buffer strips on dissolved organic carbon in surface runoff from an agricultural landscape. Biogeochemistry 120:121–32.
Southworth J, Pfeifer RA, Habeck M, Randolph JC, Doering OC, Johnston JJ, Rao DG. 2002. Changes in soybean yields in the Midwestern United States as a result of future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization. Clim Change 53:447–75.
Soylu ME, Kucharik CJ, Loheide SP. 2014. Influence of groundwater on plant water use and productivity: Development of an integrated ecosystem - Variably saturated soil water flow model. Agric For Meteorol 189–190:198–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.019
Spiesman BJ, Kummel H, Jackson RD. 2017. Carbon storage potential increases with increasing ratio of C4 to C3 grass cover and soil productivity in restored tallgrass prairies. Oecologia 186:565–76. http://link.springer.com/https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-017-4036-8
Storm DE, Ph D, Stevens EW, Ph D, Asce M. 2010. Comparison of Targeted Replacement and Vegetative Filter. 135:406–9.
Sulc RM, Tracy BF. 2007. Integrated crop-livestock systems in the U.S. corn belt. Agron J 99:335–45.
Thomey ML, Slattery RA, Bernacchi CJ, Köhler IH, Ort DR. 2019. Yield response of field - grown soybean exposed to heat waves under current and elevated [ CO 2 ]. :435–268.
Tomer MD, Schilling KE. 2009. A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology. J Hydrol 376:24–33. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.029
Tomer MD, Schilling KE, Cole KJ. 2019. Nitrate on a Slow Decline: Watershed Water Quality Response during Two Decades of Tallgrass Prairie Ecosystem Reconstruction in Iowa. J Environ Qual 48:579–85.
Twine TE, Bryant JJ, T. Richter K, Bernacchi CJ, Mcconnaughay KD, Morris SJ, Leakey ADB. 2013. Impacts of elevated CO2 concentration on the productivity and surface energy budget of the soybean and maize agroecosystem in the Midwest USA. Glob Chang Biol 19:2838–52.
USDA. 2019. Economic Research Service.
Usinowicz J, Qiu J, Kamarainen A. 2017. Flashiness and Flooding of Two Lakes in the Upper Midwest During a Century of Urbanization and Climate Change. Ecosystems 20:601–15.
Vadas PA, Kleinman PJA, Sharpley AN. 2004. A Simple Method to Predict Dissolved Phosphorus in Runoff from Surface-Applied Manures. J Environ Qual 33:749–56.
Vadas PA, Gburek WJ, Sharpley AN, Kleinman PJA, Moore PA, Cabrera ML, Harmel RD. 2007. A Model for Phosphorus Transformation and Runoff Loss for Surface-Applied Manures. J Environ Qual 36:324–32.
Vadas PA, Joern BC, Moore PA. 2012. Simulating Soil Phosphorus Dynamics for a Phosphorus Loss Quantification Tool. J Environ Qual 41:1750–7.
Vadas PA, Busch DL, Powell JM, Brink GE. 2015. Monitoring runoff from cattle-grazed pastures for a phosphorus loss quantification tool. Agric Ecosyst Environ 199:124–31. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2014.08.026
Van Meter KJ, Basu NB. 2017. Time lags in watershed-scale nutrient transport: an exploration of dominant controls. Environ Res Lett 12:084017. http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/12/i=8/a=084017?key=crossref.1a17de92c2bc7e557846e75a12341e51
Van Meter KJ, Basu NB, Veenstra JJ, Burras CL. 2016. The nitrogen legacy: evidence of soil nitrogen accumulations in anthropogenic landscapes. Environ Res Lett 11:1–12.
Van Meter KJ, Basu NB, Van Cappellen P. 2017. Two centuries of nitrogen dynamics: Legacy sources and sinks in the Mississippi and Susquehanna River Basins. Global Biogeochem Cycles 31:2–23.
Van Meter KJ, Van Cappellen P, Basu NB. 2018. Legacy nitrogen may prevent achievement of water quality goals in the Gulf of Mexico. Science (80- ) 4462:1–8.
VanLoocke A, Twine TE, Kucharik CJ, Bernacchi CJ. 2016. Assessing the potential to decrease the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone with Midwest US perennial cellulosic feedstock production. GCB Bioenergy 9:858–75.
Varvel GE, Vogel KP, Mitchell RB, Follett RF, Kimble JM. 2008. Comparison of corn and switchgrass on marginal soils for bioenergy. Biomass and Bioenergy 32:18–21.
Villamagna AM, Angermeier PL, Bennett EM. 2013. Capacity, pressure, demand, and flow: A conceptual framework for analyzing ecosystem service provision and delivery. Ecol Complex 15:114–21. http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2013.07.004
Wang Z, Zhang TQ, Tan CS, Vadas P, Qi ZM, Wellen C. 2018. Modeling phosphorus losses from soils amended with cattle manures and chemical fertilizers. Sci Total Environ 639:580–7.
Wardropper C, Gillon S, Rissman A. 2018. Innovation in Outcomes-Based Water Quality Policy: A Case Study from the Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA. Case Stud Environ:1–7.
Werling BP, Dickson TL, Isaacs R, Gaines H, Gratton C, Gross KL, Liere H, Malmstrom CM, Meehan TD, Ruan L, Robertson BA, Robertson GP, Schmidt TM, Schrotenboer AC, Teal TK, Wilson JK, Landis DA. 2014. Perennial grasslands enhance biodiversity and multiple ecosystem services in bioenergy landscapes. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111:1652–7. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1309492111
Wiesner S, Duff AJ, Desai AR, Panke-Buisse K. 2020. Increasing Dairy Sustainability with Integrated Crop–Livestock Farming. Sustainability 12:765.
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts. 2011. The first report of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts. :226.
Wisconsin DNR. CAFO Permittees.
Yahara WINS. 2017. Progress through Partnership, 2017 Annual Report. https://www.dndi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/DNDi_AR_2016.pdf
Zeng N, Zhao F, Collatz GJ, Kalnay E, Salawitch RJ, West TO, Guanter L. 2014. Agricultural Green Revolution as a driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude. Nature 515:394–7. http://www.nature.com/doifinder/https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13893
Zhang X, Liu X, Zhang M, Dahlgren RA, Eitzel M. 2010. A Review of Vegetated Buffers and a Meta-analysis of Their Mitigation Efficacy in Reducing Nonpoint Source Pollution. J Environ Qual 39:76. https://www.agronomy.org/publications/jeq/abstracts/39/1/76
Zhao C, Liu B, Piao S, Wang X, Lobell DB, Huang Y, Huang M, Yao Y, Bassu S, Ciais P, Durand J-L, Elliott J, Ewert F, Janssens IA, Li T, Lin E, Liu Q, Martre P, Müller C, Peng S, Peñuelas J, Ruane AC, Wallach D, Wang T, Wu D, Liu Z, Zhu Y, Zhu Z, Asseng S. 2017. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proc Natl Acad Sci 114:9326–31. http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114
Zhou X, Helmers MJ, Asbjornsen H, Kolka R, Tomer MD, Cruse RM. 2014. Nutrient removal by prairie filter strips in agricultural landscapes. J Soil Water Conserv 69:54–64. http://www.jswconline.org/cgi/doi/https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.69.1.54
Zipper SC, Motew M, Booth EG, Chen X, Qiu J, Christopher J, Carpenter SR, Sciences P. Continuous separation of land use and climate effects on the water balance using principal components regression. :1–41.
Zipper SC, Soylu ME, Booth EG, Loheide SP. 2015. Untangling the effects of shallow groundwater and soil texture as drivers of subfield-scale yield variability. Water Resour Res 51:6338–58. http://doi.wiley.com/https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017522
The authors thank Melissa Motew and Pavel Pinkas for their crucial roles in model development and execution. The authors also thank three anonymous reviewers for their feedback and improvement of this manuscript. Funding for this project was provided by the College of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a National Science Foundation Innovations at the Nexus of Food-Energy-Water Systems (INFEWS) Track 1 grant (award #1855996).
Author Contributions CK and TC designed the study. EB and TC contributed code to alter model input. TC generated scenarios and analyzed data. The first draft was written by TC and CK, and all authors contributed to the final version.
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Campbell, T.A., Booth, E.G., Gratton, C. et al. Agricultural Landscape Transformation Needed to Meet Water Quality Goals in the Yahara River Watershed of Southern Wisconsin. Ecosystems 25, 507–525 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-021-00668-y
- Water quality
- Watershed management
- Agricultural runoff
- Perennial grass
- Climate change