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Monitoring Climate Sensitivity Shifts in Tree-Rings of Eastern Boreal North America Using Model-Data Comparison

Shifts in Tree Growth Sensivity to Climate

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Abstract

The growth of high-latitude temperature-limited boreal forest ecosystems is projected to become more constrained by soil water availability with continued warming. The purpose of this study was to document ongoing shifts in tree growth sensitivity to the evolving local climate in unmanaged black spruce (Picea mariana (Miller) B.S.P.) forests of eastern boreal North America (49°N–52°N, 58°W–82°W) using a comparative study of field and modeled data. We investigated growth relationships to climate (gridded monthly data) from observed (50 site tree-ring width chronologies) and simulated growth data (stand-level forest growth model) over 1908–2013. No clear strengthening of moisture control over tree growth in recent decades was detected. Despite climate warming, photosynthesis (main driver of the forest growth model) and xylem production (main driver of radial growth) have remained temperature-limited. Analyses revealed, however, a weakening of the influence of growing season temperature on growth during the mid- to late twentieth century in the observed data, particularly in high-latitude (> 51.5°N) mountainous sites. This shift was absent from simulated data, which resulted in clear model-data desynchronization. Thorough investigations revealed that desynchronization was mostly linked to the quality of climate data, with precipitation data being of particular concern. The scarce network of weather stations over eastern boreal North America (> 51.5°N) affects the accuracy of estimated local climate variability and critically limits our ability to detect climate change effects on high-latitude ecosystems, especially at high altitudinal sites. Climate estimates from remote sensing could help address some of these issues in the future.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Emeline Chaste for GIS analyses, Xiao Jing Guo for assistance with StandLEAP, Williams F. J Parsons for language revision and two anonymous reviewers and the Associate Editor for helpful comments on an earlier version of this manuscript. This study was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC Strategic and Discovery Grants), the Nordic Forest Research Cooperation Committee (SNS), the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) and the Research Council of Norway (Grant 160022/E50). This work was also supported by a fellowship from the Forest Complexity Modelling program (NSERC Strategic and Discovery Grants). The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose.

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Author notes

  1. CO, MPG and ID designed research; CO and MPG performed research; CO and MPG contributed new analytic tools; CO and MPG analyzed the data; and CO, MPG, ID, AH and YB wrote the paper.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 boul. de l’Université, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, J9X 5E4, Canada

    Clémentine Ols, Yves Bergeron & Igor Drobyshev

  2. Laboratoire d’Inventaire Forestier, Institut National de l’Information Géographique et Forestière, 14 Rue Girardet, 54000, Nancy, France

    Clémentine Ols

  3. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S., Stn. Sainte-Foy, P.O. Box 10380, Quebec, Québec, G1V 4C7, Canada

    Martin P. Girardin

  4. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, P.O. Box 5685, Sluppen, NO-7485, Trondheim, Norway

    Annika Hofgaard

  5. Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 49, SE-230 53, Alnarp, Sweden

    Igor Drobyshev

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  1. Clémentine Ols
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Ols, C., Girardin, M.P., Hofgaard, A. et al. Monitoring Climate Sensitivity Shifts in Tree-Rings of Eastern Boreal North America Using Model-Data Comparison. Ecosystems 21, 1042–1057 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0203-3

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