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Modeling and forecasting of Neopanamax vessel transit time for traffic management in the Panama Canal

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Abstract

In response to an increased reliance on bigger, Neopanamax-sized vessels for shipping, the Panama Canal has been expanded. Whilst the way that vessels transit the newly expanded canal has stayed the same, maneuvering operations have changed. As a result, transit times have been affected. In accordance with the size and cargo of vessels, canal navigation rules restrict how access channels (Culebra Cut, Gatún Lake, and seaways) and new locks (Cocolí and Agua Clara) are used. Larger sized, Neopanamax vessels will benefit most from the expanded canal. Since the canal opened on 26 June 2016, data on transit times have been gathered. With these data, a thorough statistical analysis should be carried out. The most influential variables on overall time in transit (TET), such as pilot skill and Culebra Cut or Gatun Lake transit times, are identified. Formulae based on multivariate linear regression can be extracted that will make it possible to establish a conductive methodology for estimating the transit time of a Neopanamax vessel. Taking into account the results of the statistical analysis, a proposal is included for improving Neopanamax traffic management, with views to reduce the TET, from a transit policy point of view. This is the first work in scientific literature that analyzes in detail, from qualitative and statistical approaches, the total time in transit through the set of navigable routes and locks that compose the new expanded Panama Canal.

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Fig. 1

Source: author’s own, using Panama Canal Authority (PCA) data

Fig. 2

Source: [20]

Fig. 3

Source: author’s own

Fig. 4

Source: author’s own

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Source: author’s own

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Abbreviations

ANOVA:

Analysis of variance

CC:

Clear cut

CCDL:

Clear-cut daylight locks

CCTM:

Maritime traffic control center

CL:

Control limit

DLCC:

Daylight cut clear cut

LCL:

Lower control limit

LNG:

Liquefied natural gas

LOA:

Overall length

LPG:

Liquefied petroleum gas

MARS:

Multivariate adaptive regression splines

MT:

Maritime transport

PC:

Panama canal

PCA:

Panama canal authority

RMSE:

Root-mean-squared error

SVM:

Support vector machines

TET:

Transit time

UCL:

Upper control limit

USL:

Upper specification limit

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Autoridad del Canal de Panamá and the Universidad Internacional Marítima de Panamá their valuable help.

Funding

This research/work has been supported by MINECO Grants MTM2014-52876- R and MTM2017-82724-R, and by the Xunta de Galicia (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva ED431C-2016- 015 and Centro Singular de Investigación de Galicia ED431G/01), all of them through the ERDF.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Mixed Engineering Group, Department of Naval and Industrial Engineering, Higher Polytechnic University College, Universidade da Coruña, El Ferrol, Spain

    Luis Carral & José-Carlos Álvarez-Feal

  2. MODES Group, Department of Mathematics, CITIC and ITMATI, Higher Polytechnic University College, Universidade da Coruña, El Ferrol, Spain

    Javier Tarrío-Saavedra & Salvador Naya

  3. Universidad Marítima Internacional de Panamá, Panama City, Panama

    Rodolfo Sabonge

Authors
  1. Luis Carral
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  2. Javier Tarrío-Saavedra
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  3. José-Carlos Álvarez-Feal
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  4. Salvador Naya
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  5. Rodolfo Sabonge
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Correspondence to Luis Carral.

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Carral, L., Tarrío-Saavedra, J., Álvarez-Feal, JC. et al. Modeling and forecasting of Neopanamax vessel transit time for traffic management in the Panama Canal. J Mar Sci Technol 25, 379–396 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00773-019-00650-3

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