Abstract
R&D, an important determinant of productivity, is highly concentrated in rich economies because of the slow diffusion of knowledge to developing countries given the cumulative nature of technological progress. This study presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of international trade, innovation, and technology diffusion with a continuum of countries. A point of departure from traditional trade models is that comparative advantage based on innovative and imitative R&D productivities determines the identity of innovators and imitators. Through this mechanism, the division of the world economy into two groups, North and South, endogenously emerges as an equilibrium outcome. The model allows us to explore interesting issues related to economic policy and development, including the following questions. Does strengthening patent policy induce imitating economies to innovate? Does subsidizing innovation or imitation promote the industrialization of developing economies. If so, how does the inequality of the world economy change? We demonstrate that the answers to these important questions crucially depend on knowledge useful to imitative R&D.
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Notes
This fact is often explained by differences in productivity levels. Caselli (2005) summarizes the literature by noting that about half of income differences are attributable to differences in total factor productivity.
It is the average of the mean growth rates of 111 countries during the period. Those numbers are calculated using Penn World Table 9.1.
See Lederman and Maloney (2003) on this point.
China accounted for 9% of world R&D expenditure, which is exceptionally high among non-OECD countries. Eberhardt et al. (2017) analyze the explosion of patent filings by Chinese residents, both domestically and in the USA during the early 2000s.
Those countries were Argentina, China, Romania, Israel, Russia, Singapore, Slovenia, South Africa, and Taiwan.
This amount does not include counterfeited and piracy products that are domestically produced and consumed. If they are included, OECD (2007) estimates that the total magnitude is several hundred billion dollars more.
See the following link on these points. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/3261385.stm (accessed on April 8, 2018). Those counterfeit medicines are often used for malaria, TB, and Aids.
Though migration is ruled out by assumption, we conduct comparative static analysis to examine what would result if some portion of consumers migrate from South to North for exogenous reasons.
We assume that “other” Southern firms do not engage in production if the price is equal to the marginal cost.
This represents a deterministic innovation process. It would be interesting to introduce random elements of innovative R&D, though doing so would not substantially change the main conclusion of our paper.
R&D productivity is an elusive concept in empirical studies. For example, the ratio of patents to R&D expenditure does not represent R&D productivity for a well-known reason that not all innovations are patented. Partly for this reason, it is difficult to directly identify differences in R&D productivity levels across countries in data. Having said this, there are attempts to quantify those differences, for example, see Furman et al. (2002).
A large body of empirical research describes both the localized nature of knowledge spillovers and the international scope of knowledge diffusion (Bottazzi and Peri 2003; Mancusi 2008; Coe et al. 2009; Ang and Madsen 2013). See Keller (2004) for a survey of the various channels through which knowledge spillovers arise.
The complete form of the no-arbitrage conditions associated with \(V_{i}(t)\) and \(V_{S}(t)\) is given by
$$\begin{aligned} r(t)V_{i}(t)dt&= \pi _{i}(t)dt+{\dot{V}}_{i}(t)dt[1-h(t)dt]-h(t)V_{i}(t)dt, \\ r(t)V_{S}(t)dt&= \pi _{S}(t)dt+{\dot{V}}_{S}(t)dt. \end{aligned}$$After dividing by dt and \(dt\rightarrow 0\), we obtain (20) and (21).
For example, Sener (2001) constructs a North–South model with an endogenous education decision and considers R&D productivity with a randomization of comparative advantage through the presence of job-matching frictions.
See “Appendix 1” for the derivation of (25).
See “Appendix 2” for a constant value of \(E/w_{i}\) in the steady state equilibrium.
(32) can be rewritten as \(\rho (1-\delta )\phi ^{2}+\Gamma (g,m)\phi -g=0\), where \(\Gamma (g,m)\equiv (g+\rho )\gamma \dfrac{(1-s_{S})a_{m}}{(1-s_{N})a_{S}}+g(1-\delta )-\rho\). Then, the explicit form of the function of \(\phi (g,m)\) is given by \(\phi (g,m)\equiv \frac{1}{2\rho (1-\delta )}\left[ -\Gamma (g,m)\pm \sqrt{\Gamma (g,m)^{2}+4g\rho (1-\delta )}\right]\). This confirms that one root is positive and the other is negative for all values of (g, m), and that the former is a relevant root.
See “Appendix 4” for the explicit expressions of these partial derivatives of \(\phi =\phi (g,m;\alpha ,\theta ,s_{N},s_{S},a_{S},\delta )\).
The latter two conditions for a decreasing SS curve are satisfied as long as \(\delta\) is small because of \(f'(\phi )=0\) for \(\delta =0\).
For empirical studies, see Dohmen et al. (2016) and Hübner and Vannoorenberghe (2015) which establish that growth is slower with a higher value of the rate of time preference. Regarding the literature on growth theory, the new-classical growth models like the Ramsey model show the same feature, and many endogenous growth models, including the Romer (1990) and Grossman and Helpman (2002), also share the same prediction.
We also believe that analysis of unique equilibrium is sufficient for the aim of the paper to establish the endogenous division of the world economy into innovating North and imitating South.
From (32), we can explicitly derive the partial derivative of \(\phi\) with respect to \(a_{m}\) as \(\frac{\partial \phi }{\partial a_{m}}=-\left[ \frac{g/\phi }{g+\rho \phi }+\frac{1-\delta }{1-\phi (1-\delta )}\right] ^{-1}<0.\)
In fact, mixed results are reported on the impact of IPR protection in the literature on North–South models. Lai (1998), using a model of variety-expanding-type innovation, concludes that strengthening IPR protection promotes innovation, whereas Glass and Saggi (2001), using a model of quality-improvement-type innovation, suggest the opposite. Iwaisako et al. (2011) and Tanaka and Iwaisako (2014) show that strengthening patent protection leads to higher innovation in a North–South quality-ladder model with foreign direct investment by the endogenous location choice of firms. In a economy with opportunities of patents and trade secrets as protection method, Suzuki (2015) show that the effects of IPR protection on economic growth depend on the degree of the risk of leakage of trade secrets. The recent empirical study by Park (2012) finds that IPR protection has a statistically non-significant effect, using a comprehensive database of US multinational firms and their foreign affiliates in developed countries.
Harrison and Rodríguez-Clare (2010) explore a theoretical foundation for industrial policy and review the related empirical literature. Aghion et al. (2015) show that industrial policies allocated to competitive sectors or that foster competition in a sector increase productivity growth using a comprehensive dataset in China.
See Grogger and Hanson (2011) for a theoretical and empirical study of estimating the magnitude of migration costs and the contribution of wage differences to how migrants sort themselves across destination countries.
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Acknowledgements
We are grateful for the valuable comments from the editor (Giacomo Corneo), two anonymous referees, Tatsuro Iwaisako and the participants of the Japanese Economic Association meeting and seminars at ISER, Kobe University, Kyoto University, the University of Hyogo, and National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. This research was financially supported by the joint research program of KIER and Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) and (C) from the JSPS: grant numbers 16K03624, 16H02016, 18K01509 and 19K01638. Any remaining errors in this paper are our own.
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Appendix
Appendix
1.1 Appendix 1. The derivation of (25)
Using (7), we can rewrite (22) for a firm in country i as:
Similarly, we derive a similar condition for Southern economies. For this, log-differentiate (23) to derive \({\dot{V}}_{S}(t)/V_{S}(t)=\dot{w_{S}}\left( t\right) /w_{S}\left( t\right) -\dot{K_{S}}\left( t\right) /K_{S}\left( t\right)\). Making use of this condition, (5), (10), (11) and (23), we can rewrite the Southern arbitrage equation given in (21) as:
From the above two equations, we can obtain the relative value of innovative R&D to imitative R&D given in (25).
1.2 Appendix 2. A constant value of \(E/w_{i}\) in the steady state equilibrium
The total supply of asset value V in this model is given by
Define \(\kappa _{i}\in [0,1]\) as the country \(i'\)s share of total asset wealth, then the asset holdings of the economy i is
Using (18), (22) and (23), we have the following relationships:
Steady-state equilibrium is characterized by constant values of g, m, and \(\phi\). In addition, \(\kappa _{i}\) and \(\epsilon _{i}\) are constant in steady state, because the relative values of \(n_{i}/n_{\iota }\) and \(w_{i}/w_{\iota }\) are constant. Thus, \(\dot{A_{i}}/A_{i}=\dot{n_{i}}/n_{i}+\dot{V_{i}}/V_{i}=g+\dot{V_{i}}/V_{i}\) holds. Moreover, from \(\dot{E_{i}}/E_{i}={\dot{E}}/E(=r-\rho ),\)\(E_{i}=\eta _{i}E\) holds, where \(\eta _{i}\) is constant over time.
Turning to the budget constraint of country i’s household \(\dot{A_{i}}=rA_{i}+w_{i}L-E_{i}-T_{i}\), we can obtain the following relationships
where we used government budget constraint \(T_{i}=s_{N}w_{i}R_{i}\) for \(i\in {\mathcal {N}}\), \(T_{i}=s_{S}w_{i}R_{i}\) for \(i\in {\mathcal {S}}\), \(\dot{A_{i}}/A_{i}=g+\dot{V_{i}}/V_{i}\), \(r=\dot{V_{i}}/V_{i}+\pi _{i}/V_{i}\), (22), (23), (43), \(n_{i}\pi _{i}=(1-\alpha )p_{i}n_{i}x_{i}=\frac{1-\alpha }{\alpha }w_{i}\left( L-R_{i}\right)\) for \(i\in {\mathcal {N}}\), and \(n_{i}\pi _{i}=(1-\theta )p_{i}n_{i}x_{i}=(1-\theta )w_{S}\left( L-R_{i}\right)\) for \(i\in {\mathcal {S}}\). Therefore, \(E/w_{i}\) is constant, because \(n_{i}/N\), \(n_{S}/N_{S}\) and \(R_{i}\) are constant in the steady state equilibrium.
1.3 Appendix 3. Derivation of \(w_{m}/w_{S}=1\)
From (41) and (42) with \({\dot{E}}/E={\dot{w}}_{i}/w_{i}\), (22), (23) and (18), we obtain
From (44) and (45) with (6), (9) and \(N_{S}/N=1-\phi\), we obtain the following equations:
After using (46) and (47) to eliminate E, we can rewrite the resulting equation as
The following two equations can be derived from (22), (23), (46), and (47):
For \(i=m\), using \(V_{S}=V_{m}\) and \(K_{S}/N=(K_{S}/N_{S})(N_{S}/N)=f(\phi )(1-\phi )\) and substituting (49) in \(i=m\) into (26) yields
Equating (48) in \(i=m\) and (50) gives \(w_{m}/w_{S}=1\).
1.4 Appendix 4. Derivation of the partial derivatives of \(\phi =\phi (g,m;\alpha ,\theta ,s_{N},s_{S},a_{S},\delta )\).
We can rewrite (32) as
The total differentiation of \(\phi =\phi (g,m;\alpha ,\theta ,s_{N},s_{S},a_{S},\delta )\) yields
where
From the above equation, we can obtain the partial derivatives of \(\phi\) with respect to \(g,m,\alpha ,\theta ,a_{S},s_{N},s_{S}\) and \(\delta\)
1.5 Appendix 5. \(d(\mathrm {Gini})/dm<0\)
From the definition of the Gini Index, by differentiating it with respect to m, we obtain the following result:
where
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Haruyama, T., Hashimoto, Ki. Innovators and imitators in a world economy. J Econ 130, 157–186 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00712-019-00688-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00712-019-00688-2