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Assessing future changes in daily precipitation tails over India: insights from multimodel assessment of CMIP6 GCMs

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Abstract

The tails of the probability distribution host extremes. The distributions are typically classified into heavy or light-tailed distributions subjected to their tail behavior, out of which the former signifies frequent happenings of extreme events. The present study demonstrates the analysis where the outputs from 13 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used to evaluate changes in the tail behavior of precipitation extremes that will preside over India for the twenty-first century. A straightforward empirical index known as the “obesity index” (OB) is utilized to measure the tail heaviness for each of the 4801 daily precipitation records over India for historical (1970–2019) and future (2020–2100) time periods. The same approach was used to characterize daily precipitation tails in the Indian meteorological subdivisions and across different climate types during various periods. The results highlight that heavy-tailed distributions are well-suited for daily precipitation extremes in India, with OB values above 0.75 observed in nearly all grids for both present and future scenarios. Notably, in the case of the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 585 climate scenario, which is the worst climate scenario, approximately 42.82% of grids exhibit the highest range of OB from 0.85 to 0.9 relative to other SSP scenarios. The findings also show that the largest to smallest heavy tails are associated with major climate types E (polar), B (arid), A (tropical), and C (temperate). Large heavy-tailed extremes are observed in ET, BSh, BWh, and Aw for climate subtypes, while relatively lighter-tailed extremes were observed in Am and Cwb. Furthermore, the variation in the OB is found to be non-linear with the elevation. In climatic zones Aw, BSh, Cwa, and ET, a U-shaped pattern is observed, while in climate zone Cwb, it shows a concave increase. Conversely, curves are convex decreasing for As, BWh, Csa, and convex increasing for zone Am. The conclusions from this study can help policymakers in designing adaptation plans in response to the anticipated effects of climate change.

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Data availability

Daily gridded precipitation data having a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° was procured from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Code availability

Codes are developed by the authors to perform the analysis in this paper.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are obliged to the Indian Institute of Technology, Ropar (IIT Ropar) for facilitating this study. The authors are thankful to the India Meteorological Department for providing the precipitation data. The authors are thankful to an anonymous reviewer for the constructive and encouraging comments on the manuscript.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Ropar, Punjab, India

    Neha Gupta & Sagar Rohidas Chavan

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  1. Neha Gupta
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  2. Sagar Rohidas Chavan
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Neha Gupta. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Sagar Rohidas Chavan.

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Gupta, N., Chavan, S.R. Assessing future changes in daily precipitation tails over India: insights from multimodel assessment of CMIP6 GCMs. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 3791–3809 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04849-2

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