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Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

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Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters, often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide. It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes. The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs). The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, student’s t-test, and probability density function approach. Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed, including wet days (RR1mm), heavy precipitation days (RR10mm), very heavy precipitation days (RR20mm), severe precipitation days (RR50mm), consecutive wet days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day), and simple daily intensity index (SDII). The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21st century (i.e., near future (NF; 2021–2060) and far future (FF; 2061–2100)) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21st century (2061–2100). Moreover, from the results of multimodel ensemble means (MMEMs), extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm, RR10mm, RR20mm, CWD, and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part. The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent (intense) occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00–35.00 d for CWD. The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding, soil erosion, water resource management, food security, and agriculture development.

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Acknowledgements

The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42130405), the Innovative and Entrepreneurial Talent Program of Jiangsu Province (R2020SC04), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA2006030201), and the Research Fund for International Young Scientists of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42150410381).

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  1. The first and second authors contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Land Science Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Adnan Abbas, Waheed Ullah, Chengyi Zhao & Xin Dou

  2. Department of Geology, Bacha Khan University, Charsadda, 24420, Pakistan

    Asher S. Bhatti

  3. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China

    Safi Ullah

  4. Center of Excellence in Water Resources, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, 54890, Pakistan

    Muhammad Waseem

  5. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Sector H-8/2, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Gohar Ali

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Abbas, A., Bhatti, A.S., Ullah, S. et al. Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs. J. Arid Land 15, 274–296 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-023-0050-3

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