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Precipitation anomalies over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during Bay of Bengal Storm double-peak periods

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Abstract

The Bay of Bengal Storm (BBS) frequently occurs during the “double-peak periods” in (1) May (pre-peak period) and (2) October to November (post-peak period). Exploring precipitation variation and its anomalies during these periods is crucial for understanding climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Precipitation products of MSWEP v2 (Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation Version 2) along with precipitation observations from meteorological stations and BBS data from the Guam Joint Typhoon Warning Center from 1979 to 2020 were employed for the analysis. The objective of the present study was to investigate the anomalous characteristics and multi-temporal variability of regional precipitation over the QTP and its relationship with the BBS using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), and percentage calculation method. There was a consistent spatial distribution of precipitation on the QTP during double-peak periods based on the first mode of EOF. However, the second mode of EOF identified a northeast-southwest reverse in precipitation distribution. The QTP was categorized into five precipitation anomalous subregions during double-peak periods using REOF. Precipitation showed significant increases (12.6 mm/10a in May and 5.1 mm/10a in October to November) in specific regions. Precipitation anomalies on the QTP during double-peak periods exhibited positive anomalies at various timescales (monthly, ten-day, and pentad), with stronger BBS influence in the pre-peak period. From 1979 to 2020, all monthly precipitation anomalies on the QTP during double-peak periods were accompanied by BBS, with an 8% probability. The rates of precipitation anomalies under the influence of BBS were about 18% and 28% in the ten-day and pentad timescales, respectively, with BBS contributing the most to pentad precipitation anomalies. Daily precipitation anomalies during the pre-peak and post-peak periods were influenced by BBS to varying extents (30%, 20%, and 25% in May, October, and November, respectively). Extreme daily precipitation days affected by BBS represented 19%, 16%, and 21% of the statistical period extreme precipitation days in May, October, and November, respectively, with higher rates in the post-peak period.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the data providers and Editage (www.editage.cn) for English language editing. And the authors also appreciate the constructive opinions from the editor of this paper and the two anonymous reviewers.

Funding

The study was supported by the National Key Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41930972) and the Youth Science and Technology Fund Program of Gansu Province (grant no. 20JR5RA112).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, No. 2070 Donggang East Rd, Lanzhou, 730020, China

    Jinsong Wang

  2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, No. 46 Zhongguancun South Rd, Beijing, 100081, China

    Ying Li

  3. Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, No. 2070 Donggang East Rd, Lanzhou, 730020, China

    Jing Wu

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  1. Jinsong Wang
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  2. Ying Li
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Jinsong Wang ,Ying Li and Jing Wu wrote the main manuscript text and Jing Wu prepared all figures. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Jinsong Wang or Jing Wu.

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Wang, J., Li, Y. & Wu, J. Precipitation anomalies over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during Bay of Bengal Storm double-peak periods. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 3133–3146 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04806-5

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