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Simulation of extreme precipitation changes in Central Asia using CMIP6 under different climate scenarios

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Abstract

Central Asia has a dry climate, scarce water resources, extremely fragile ecosystems, and frequent extreme precipitation events. Using the data of 22 global climate models in the CMIP6 plan, the trend of the extreme precipitation index under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was estimated by calculating eight extreme precipitation indices in Central Asia and optimizing the best multi-model set using the Taylor evaluation and comprehensive score. The results showed that in Central Asia, the CMIP6 mode and multi-mode collection can reasonably reproduce the regional differences of various severe precipitation indices. However, these results only performed well for consecutive dry days (CDD) and annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), but poorly for the replication of extreme high- and low-value regions. We found that the simulation effect of the multi-mode ensemble results was better than that of a single mode, and that CMIP6 can roughly depict the evolving characteristics of extreme precipitation events. However, the CMIP6 data performed poorly in terms of spatial divergence ability characteristics. According to the estimated results, mountainous regions have experienced considerable changes, and a significant increase in the range of change was observed for severe precipitation (consecutive wet days (CWD), single day maximum precipitation (Rx1day), and PRCPTOT) in wet and dry regions during the twenty-first century. Simultaneously, the humidification trend accelerated after 2050, and four shared socioeconomic paths showed similar trends; however, the extreme precipitation rate was higher under the high forcing path. Consecutive dry days (CDD) in Central Asia decreased by 90% under SSP5-8.5 relative to SSP1-2.6, whereas CWD, Rx1day, and PRCPTOT increased by 20%, 150%, and 118%, respectively.

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Acknowledgements

The authors express their appreciation to the Regional Collaborative Innovation Program of Xinjiang Province (2022E01014) for the sponsorship.

Funding

This research was funded by the 2022 Special Regional Collaborative Innovation in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2022E01014).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, No.102 Xinyi Road, Urumqi, 830054, China

    Xin Huang & Yonghui Wang

  2. Xinjiang Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Zone, Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, 830054, Xinjiang, China

    Xin Huang & Yonghui Wang

  3. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China

    Xiaofei Ma

  4. Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of CA, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China

    Xiaofei Ma

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Contributions

Xin Huang: conceptualization, methodology, software, data curation, writing—original draft preparation.

Yonghui Wang: visualization, investigation, writing—reviewing and editing.

Xiaofei Ma: methodology, software, data curation, writing—reviewing and editing.

Xiaofei Ma and Yonghui Wang: supervision, software, validation, writing—reviewing and editing.

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Correspondence to Yonghui Wang.

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Huang, X., Wang, Y. & Ma, X. Simulation of extreme precipitation changes in Central Asia using CMIP6 under different climate scenarios. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 3203–3219 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04802-9

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