Abstract
Climate change-induced aridity changes are observed globally and in India, with variable spatial and temporal distribution. Unlike droughts, aridity denotes a persistent climate condition requiring in-depth analysis utilising long-term data to identify any significant spatio-temporal shifts. Given the absence of a comprehensive assessment covering the entire Indian subcontinent, the primary objective of this study is to investigate the spatial change in aridity, its temporal trend, and the change point of its mean values across Indian mainland considering a time period of 1902–2021. Furthermore, this study also investigates the spatio-temporal variations in desertification vulnerability across the Indian mainland. Findings from the study reveal the potential for both desertification and oasification across India’s diverse climate regions. Analysis over a period of 120 years (1902 to 2021), the aridity index (AI), which is calculated as a ratio of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), reveals that eastern and northeast states (20% of total area) show a significant decreasing trend in the aridity index (i.e., increased aridity). In contrast, parts of north-western and southern peninsular India (21% of the total area) show a significant increasing trend (i.e., decreased aridity). This pattern shows a tendency to shift towards dryer condition in the eastern and northeast regions of India, while oasification propensity is seen in the north-western and southern regions. Wherever these changes were observed, 59% of the area experienced a sudden change in mean AI (change point at 5% significance level) between 1950 and 1980, which can be attributed to the shift in the global climate regime during the 1970s and 1980s. Furthermore, spatial extent of sub-humid regions has increased by 6.3% between pre-change point (1902–1951) and post-change point (1982–2021) time period, while semi-arid zones have been found to shrink with time. The change can be mainly attributed to changes in P and PET across India. Overall, this study emphasizes on the potential oasification and desertification trends and the vulnerability towards desertification across India. The findings enhance the understanding of impending desertification/oasification, aiding future agricultural and hydrological planning.
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Data availability
Monthly precipitation and PET data are obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset (https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/ accessed in October 2022). Digital elevation model (DEM) is obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) (https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/ accessed on August 2023). Soil texture data is obtained from Regridded Harmonized World Soil Database v1.2 (https://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds_id=1247 accessed on August 2023) (Wieder 2014) and soil depth data is obtained from the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRCS) archive of Bhuvan (https://bhuvan-app3.nrsc.gov.in/data/download/index.php accessed on August 2023).
Code availability
The codes required for the analysis are written in MATLAB R2021a. The codes may be available on request from the authors.
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Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the partial support given by the Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India to conduct this research.
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This work was partially supported by the sponsored projects supported by Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India through a sponsored project.
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Rajib Maity conceptualized the central idea and methodological outline. Material preparation, data curation and formal analysis were performed by Rohit Prasad Shaw and Subhra Sekhar Maity. Rajib Maity performed the investigation and review of the results. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Subhra Sekhar Maity and Rohit Prasad Shaw and it was edited by Rajib Maity. All authors commented on the previous versions of the manuscript and approved the final version of the manuscript. The work was done under the supervision of Rajib Maity.
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Maity, S.S., Shaw, R.P. & Maity, R. Climate change may cause oasification or desertification both: an analysis based on the spatio-temporal change in aridity across India. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 1167–1184 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04686-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04686-9