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Frequency analysis of annual maximum daily precipitation in northeastern Algeria: mapping and implications under climate variability

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Abstract

Precipitation in northeastern Algeria is irregular, often exhibiting exceptional values. Extreme precipitation events, such as annual maximum daily precipitation (AMDP), can cause major disasters. Changes in global climate have increased the frequency and intensity of AMDP in many areas. This article examines the distribution and quantile mapping of AMDP, using the data from 180 precipitation stations covering eight watersheds in northeastern Algeria between 1970 and 2014. The watersheds, from east to west, are Coastal Algiers, Soummam, El Hoddna, Coastal Constantine, Kebir Rhumel, High Plateaus Constantine, Seybouse, and Medjerdah. By applying different goodness-of-fit tests, the chi-square (χ2), Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS), Anderson–Darling test (AD), and log-likelihood ratio test, the best-fit distribution function for frequency analysis of AMDP was determined to be the generalized extreme value (GEV), with a 95% confidence level. The maximum value of AMDP for the data series generally varied between 60 and 150 mm, with higher values in the humid zone and lower values in the arid zone. The validity of the data used in this study was assessed through a series of tests, including the Wald–Wolfowitz test for independence, the Kendall test for stationarity, and the Wilcoxon test for homogeneity. Results of these tests demonstrated that a majority of the data met the conditions for independence, stationarity, and homogeneity. Results of goodness-of-fit test and graphical fit provided further support for the appropriateness of the GEV probability distribution function as the best fit for the data. Application of various goodness-of-fit tests for the first time on a significant number of stations in northeastern Algeria provided a better understanding of the uncertainties in frequency analysis and helped identify the most suitable distribution function for modeling AMDP in different climate regimes. The findings highlight the high-risk zones for extreme precipitation events and emphasize the need for increased investment in water resource infrastructure and management in order to address the challenges posed by climate change and population growth. This is particularly important in ensuring water security for agricultural and urban needs in northeastern Algeria.

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MB designed the research, performed the experiments and data processing, wrote the manuscript, and contributed to the analysis and discussion of results. MA provided strategic guidance and oversight of the project. MGMA conducted a thorough revision of the manuscript and made important editorial suggestions. VPS supervised the work, verified the methods used, and provided valuable feedback on the results. All authors contributed to the critical evaluation and shaping of the research, analysis, and manuscript.

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Correspondence to Mohammed Benaini.

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Benaini, M., Achite, M., Amin, M.G.M. et al. Frequency analysis of annual maximum daily precipitation in northeastern Algeria: mapping and implications under climate variability. Theor Appl Climatol 153, 1411–1424 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04525-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04525-x

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