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Comparative performance of different probability distribution functions for maximum rainfall estimation at different time scales

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Abstract

The estimation of maximum rainfall at different return periods (T) receives a crucial role in the precise planning of irrigation systems, hydraulic structures, and drainage systems. The design of such structures should be done in such a way that these structures should not be damaged due to extreme rainfall events in their entire life. The probability/frequency analysis of maximum rainfall is necessary for the selection of an appropriate model that could anticipate extreme natural processes like rainfall and flood. This study aims to select the best probability distribution function (PDF) and extrapolate maximum rainfall magnitudes at different time scales for higher durations of T in the Parbhani district of Maharashtra state of India. The maximum rainfall analysis for the study area was accomplished using daily rainfall data of 49 years (1971 to 2019). Weibull’s plotting position (WPP) formula was used to estimate observed rainfall magnitudes at different durations of T. Different PDFs like Gumbel extreme value (GEV), log-Pearson type III (LP-III), Pearson type III (P-III), log normal (L-NM), and normal (NM) were used at different time scales for estimation of annual, maximum monthly, and consecutive 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 days of maximum rainfall. The estimated magnitudes of maximum rainfall were compared with the results of the WPP. The chi-square test was used for the selection of the best-fitting PDF for the study area. In this study, GEV PDF performed the best for annual, maximum monthly, and 1 day and consecutive 5 days of maximum rainfall estimation while LP-III PDF performed the best for consecutive 2, 3, and 4 days of maximum rainfall estimation of the study area. The values of maximum rainfall at different time scales were extrapolated for the 100- and 200-year durations of T using the selected PDF for the study area. These findings will help design engineers and planners in the construction of adequate drainage systems and hydraulic structures. The result of this study will be useful to formulate the appropriate strategy against flood hazards and damages.

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  1. Department of Soil Science and Agriculture Chemistry, School of Agriculture, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, 144411, India

    Tarate Suryakant Bajirao

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Bajirao, T.S. Comparative performance of different probability distribution functions for maximum rainfall estimation at different time scales. Arab J Geosci 14, 2138 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08580-4

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