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Impact of climate change on future productivity and water use efficiency of wheat in eastern India

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Abstract

High temperature and elevated CO2 under future climate change will influence the agricultural productivity worldwide. Burgeoning population along with climate change situation is going to threaten the food security of India. According to IPCC 5th Assessment Report, global mean surface temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) at the end of twenty-first century will increase by 4.8 °C and 539 ppm respectively under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Considering the burning issue, the present study aims to find out the probable change in different climatic parameters under high greenhouse gas emission (RCP 8.5) scenario during 2021–2095 and their impact on wheat yield and water productivity over six locations (Jalpaiguri, Nadia, Murshidabad, Malda, Birbhum, and South 24 Parganas) covering five major agro-climatic zones of West Bengal, a state of eastern India. Results showed that maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) will increase by 5.3 °C and 5.9 °C during the end of this century. The increase in annual rainfall will be maximum (22%) at Murshidabad. Wheat yield will increase by 3 to 28% across the study sites. The seasonal crop evapotranspiration value will decline by 1 to 21%. Both water use efficiency (WUE) and transpiration use efficiency (TUE) will increase at all the study sites.

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Not applicable or the data obtained and/or analysed during the study are available from the corresponding author upon request by e-mail.

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Acknowledgements

We are thankful to the Department of Education and Training, Govt. of Australia, for providing “Endeavour Research Fellowship” 2016 to Dr. Asis Mukherjee to carry out post-doctoral research programme entitled, “Impact assessment of climate variability and climate change on crop water productivity of wheat at selected Indian and Australian locations: a crop growth simulation approach”. This manuscript is a part of the research programme.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. AICRP On Agrometeorology, Directorate of Research, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, 741235, Mohanpur, WB, India

    Asis Mukherjee

  2. School of Science, Western Sydney University, Hawkesbury Campus, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia

    Abul Kalam Samsul Huda

  3. AMFU, Majhian, RRS (OAZ), Uttar Banga Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Dakshin Dinajpur, Majhian, 733133, Patiram, West Bengal, India

    Salil Saha

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  1. Asis Mukherjee
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Contributions

1. A Mukherjee: conceptualization, methodology, data collection and compilation, data analysis, data curation, writing—original draft preparation.

2. AKS Huda: supervision and writing—correction

3. S Saha: writing, reviewing, and editing.

All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Salil Saha.

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Mukherjee, A., Huda, A.K.S. & Saha, S. Impact of climate change on future productivity and water use efficiency of wheat in eastern India. Theor Appl Climatol 152, 421–434 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04409-0

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