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Projection of changes in late spring frost based on CMIP6 models and SSP scenarios over cold regions of Iran

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Abstract

Occurrence of extreme climatic phenomena such as frost will cause significant risks and costs to many sectors, especially agriculture, horticulture, and forests. Frost will cause the worst damage when it occurs at the critical stages of crops, especially in spring. The frost phenomena are one of the important climatic and environmental hazards that cause a lot of damage to the agricultural sector of Iran every year. In this respect, the present study intends to highlight the projection of late spring rost by global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). For this purpose, minimum temperature data of 17 synoptic stations were used in the period 1985–2014 in cold regions of Iran. For projecting the changes of LSF, the ACCESS-ESM1-5 and Nor-ESM2-LM Models were used under three (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)) scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for the next three periods (i.e., 2020–2049, 2050–2079, and 2080–2099). Then, the changes were compared to the historical period (1985–2014). The root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), correlation coefficient (CC), and Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) indices evaluated the models’ performances. The results revealed that the latest and earliest dates of LSF during the base period occurred in the western and central parts of Iran, respectively. The model evaluation indicated that the performance of ACCESS-ESM1-5 (MBE = 0.3, CC = 0.87, and NSE = 0.68) exhibited a higher accuracy than the NorESM2-LM model. Based on both GCM under all three SSP scenarios, the projection of changes in future periods (compared to the base period) indicated that the date of occurrence of LSF would be earlier than the base period, with the highest and lowest changes projected based on NorESM2-SSP5-8.5 and ACCESS-ESM1-5-SSP1-2.6 in Arak, Isfahan, Khorramabad, Sabzevar, Shahrekord, and Shahroud stations. In general, depending on the model and climate scenario, the LSF phenomenon occurs earlier or later in cold regions of Iran, and its changes would be between − 76 and + 19 days in the future period.

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Data availability

The data used in this paper have been prepared by referring to Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) from this link: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/.

Code availability

In this paper, custom code in R software has been used for data extraction of GCMs and to determine the start and end dates of frost in the study area.

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Acknowledgements

The authors of the present paper are grateful to Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Atmospheric Science and Meteorology Research Center (ASMERC) for providing the data required to conduct this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

    Jalil Helali

  2. Atmospheric Science and Meteorology Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran, Iran

    Ebrahim Asadi Oskouei & Rahele Modirian

  3. Department of Physical Geography, Mohaqheqh Ardabili University, Ardabil, Iran

    Seyed Asaad Hosseini

  4. Department of Mapping and Surveying, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Vahideh Saeidi

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Authors 1 and 2 conceived of the presented idea and developed the theory and performed the computations. Authors 3 and 4 verified the analytical methods and supervised the findings of this work. Author 5 encouraged and developed the theoretical formalism. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Jalil Helali.

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Helali, J., Oskouei, E.A., Hosseini, S.A. et al. Projection of changes in late spring frost based on CMIP6 models and SSP scenarios over cold regions of Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 149, 1405–1418 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04124-2

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