Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Future projection of precipitation and temperature changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on CMIP6

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Temperature and precipitation are among the most important climatic elements in the study of climate change due to significant temporal and spatial changes, and the projection of their changes is very important in environmental hazards and planning. Therefore, in this study, the future of temperature and precipitation changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was projected. For this purpose, the data of 23 global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used as networks under the influence of two scenarios SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 for temperature and precipitation changes in the two future periods (2020–2049 and 2050–2079) were investigated comparing to the base period (1985–2014). The results showed that the temperature will increase in both periods, which will be between 0.8 and 3.3 °C in the period 2020–2079 compared to the base period. The highest and lowest temperature changes are related to the eastern and northern regions of the study area, respectively. Projection of precipitation changes also showed that the precipitation in most of the study area will decrease in the next two periods compared to the base period, which will be between 5 and 133 mm on average. Most of its changes are related to the northern regions and in the form of a strip from Morocco to the northwest of Iran. In both studied periods, the SSP5–8.5 scenario shows the highest temperature and precipitation changes in the study area.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The data used in this paper have been prepared by referring to Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) from this link: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/

Code availability

In this paper, custom code in MATLAB software has been used to re-gridding the models.

References

  • Akbary M, Salimi S, Hosseini SA, Hosseini M (2019) Spatio-temporal changes of atmospheric rivers in the Middle East and North Africa region. Int J Climatol 39(10):3976–3986

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Almazroui M, Saeed F, Saeed S et al (2021) Projected changes in climate extremes using CMIP6 simulations over SREX regions. Earth Syst Environ 5:481–497

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bates B, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof J (2008) Climate change and water. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 200 p.

  • Beecham S, Rashid M, Chowdhury RK (2014) Statistical downscaling of multi-site daily rainfall in a South Australian catchment using a generalized linear model. Int J Climatol 34(14):3654–3670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dibike YB, Coulibaly P (2005) Hydrologic impact of climate change in the Saguenay Watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. J Hydrol 307(1–4):145–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira RN, Nissenbaum MR, Rickenbach THM (2018) Climate change effects on summertime precipitation organization in the Southeast United States. Atmos Res 214:348–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grose MR, Narsey S, Delage FP, Dowdy AJ, Bador M, Boschat G, Chung C, Kajtar JB, Rauniyar S, Freund MB, Lyu K, Rashid H, Zhang X, Wales S, Trenham C, Holbrook NJ, Cowan T, Alexander L, Arblaster JM, Power S (2020) Insights from CMIP6 for Australia’s Future Climate. Earth’s Future 8(5):1–24

    Google Scholar 

  • Heydari Sh, Hosseini SA, Heydari AA (2020) Investigating the effects of climate change on stream flows of Urmia Lake basin in Iran. Model Earth Syst Environ 1:329–339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hyun Cha D, Kyou Lee D, Jin C-S, Kim G, Choi Y, Suh M-S, Ahn J-B, Hong S-Y, Min S-K, Park S-C, Kang H-S (2016) Future changes in summer precipitation in regional climate simulations over the Korean Peninsula forced by multi-RCP scenarios of HadGEM2-AO. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 52:139–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Summary for policymarkers, in Climate change 2007. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (Eds.). The physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental

  • IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change.

  • IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

  • Jiang J, Zhou T, Chen X, Zhang L (2020) Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections. Environ Res Lett 15:1–4

    Google Scholar 

  • Kay AL, Davies HN, Bell VA, Jones RG (2009) Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impactsL flood frequency in England. Clim Change 92:41–63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kilsby CG, Jones PD, Burton A, Ford AC, Fowler HJ (2007) A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environ Model Soft 22:1705–1719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leong Tan M, LatifIbrahim AB, Yusop Z, Chua V, WengChan N (2017) Climate change impacts under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. Atmos Res 189:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo N, Guo Y, Gao Z, Chen K, Chou J (2020) Assessment of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance for extreme temperature in China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 13(6):589–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meinshausen M et al (2019) The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geosci Model Dev 13(8):3571–3605

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moss R, Edmonds J, Hibbard K et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nilawar AP, Waikar ML (2019) Impacts of climate change on stream flow and sediment concentration under RCP 4.5 and 8.5: a case study in Purna River basin. India Science of the Total Environment 2:2685–2696

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Neill BC et al (2016) The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci Model Dev 9:3461–3482

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pal J, Eltahir E (2016) Future temperature in Southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability. Nature Clim Change 6:197–200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qin J, Su B, Tao H, Wang Y, Huang, j., Jiang, T. (2021) Projection of temperature and precipitation under SSPs-RCPs Scenarios over northwest China. Front Earth Sci 15:23–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rasouli AA, Rezaei banafsheh, M., Msah Bovany, A. R. Khorshiddoust, A. M., Qermzcheshmeh, B. (2014) Investigation impact of morpho-climatic parameters on accuracy of LARS-WG model. J Sci Watershed Eng 8(24):9–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Riahi K, van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E, Edmonds J, O’Neill BC, Fujimori Sh, Bauer N, Calvin K, Dellink R, Fricko O, Lutz W (2017) The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview. Glob Environ Chang 42:153–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarkar J, Chicholikar JR, Rathore LS (2015) Predicting future changes in temperature and precipitation in arid climate of Kutch, Gujarat: analyses based on LARS-WG model. Curr Sci 109:2084–2093

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaemi A, Habibinokhandan M (2009) Global warming and bio-ecological consequences. Ferdowsi University of Mashhad publication, Mashhad, Iran

    Google Scholar 

  • Tagliapietra, S. 2019. The impact of the global energy transition on MENA oil and gas producers, Energy Strategy Reviews, 26, 100397.

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waha K, Krummenauer L, Adams S, Aich V, Baarsch F, Coumou D, Fader M, Hoff H, Jobbins G, Marcus R, Menge M, Otto I, Perrette M, Rocha M, Robinson A, Schleussner CF (2017) Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. Reg Environ Change 17:1623–1638

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilks DS, Wilby RL (1999) The weather generation game: a review of stochastic weather models. Prog Phys Geogr 23:329–357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Bank. 2017. Beyond scarcity: water security in the Middle East and North Africa, MENA Development Report, World Bank, Washington, D.C.

  • You Q, Cai Z, Wu F, Jiang Z, Pepin N, Shen SP (2021) Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty. Clim Dyn 57:17–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue Y, Yan D, Yue Q, Ji G, Wang Zh (2021) Future changes in precipitation and temperature over the Yangtze River Basin in China based on CMIP6 GCMs, Atmospheric Research, 264.

  • Zahabioun B, Goudarzi MR, Msahbovani A (2010) Application of SWAT model for estimating runoff in future periods affected by climate change. J Climatol Res 1–2:43–58

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu HH, Jiang ZH, LI, J., Li, W., Sun, C. X., Li, L. (2020) Does CMIP6 inspire more confidence in simulating climate extremes over China? Adv Atmos Sci 37:1119–1132

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors of the present paper are grateful to Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for providing the data needed to conduct this research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Climatology, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

    Fereshteh Majdi & Alireza Karbalaee

  2. Department of Climatology, Mohaghegh Ardabili University, Ardabil, Iran

    Seyed Asaad Hosseini

  3. Department of Climatology, Noor Branch, Islamic Azad University, Noor, Iran

    Maryam Kaseri

  4. Department of Climatology, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

    Sara Marjanian

Authors
  1. Fereshteh Majdi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Seyed Asaad Hosseini
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Alireza Karbalaee
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Maryam Kaseri
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Sara Marjanian
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Authors 1 and 3: conceived of the presented idea and developed the theory and performed the computations. Authors 2 and 4: verified the analytical methods and supervised the findings of this work. Author 5: encouraged and developed the theoretical formalism. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Seyed Asaad Hosseini.

Ethics declarations

Ethical approval

Not applicable, because this article does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects.

Consent to participate

The data of this research were not prepared through a questionnaire.

Consent for publication

There is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this article. The authors of the article make sure that everyone agrees to submit the article and is aware of the submission.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher's note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Majdi, F., Hosseini, S.A., Karbalaee, A. et al. Future projection of precipitation and temperature changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on CMIP6. Theor Appl Climatol 147, 1249–1262 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03916-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03916-2

Search

Navigation