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Projection of maximum temperatures to 2050 in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté region, France

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Abstract

In this study, we will attempt to spatialize the daily maximum temperature projections estimated for 2050 by the ALADIN-CLIMAT model by using three types of spatial interpolation methods (statistical interpolation by regression, deterministic interpolation by inverse distance weighting and geostatistical interpolation by Kriging) and their results. The 3 interpolation methods tested allow us to establish the following synthesis with regard to the summary table of estimated errors. For the (IDW), this method, simple to apply, presents low errors (0.31). However, the visual representation is not optimal with some inconsistencies in the interpolation result. On the other hand, geostatistical interpolation by kriging: in comparison with the IDW and linear regression methods, this method has the lowest errors (0.23), but visually, this is the interpolation map that includes the most inconsistencies. This result is not surprising, since the distribution of the NORTXAV variable does not meet the distribution normality conditions for applying kriging interpolation. However, statistical interpolation by linear regression: compared to the other methods applied, this method has the largest errors. Nevertheless, this model seems very reliable with an R2 of 91%. Moreover, the different parameters have been validated for the application of the model: linear relationship between x and y, absence of multicollinearity, normality/independence, and relative homoscedasticity of the residuals. However, upon visual analysis, some inconsistencies can also be detected, and one may wonder if there is a risk of over-interpreting the data within the mesh. In conclusion, we recommend the linear regression method as it seems to be the most efficient method to interpolate temperature projections.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the author, [mohammed.ifkirne@etu.unistra.fr], upon reasonable request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Geography and Planning, University of Strasbourg, 3, rue de l’Argonne, 67000, Strasbourg, France

    Mohammed Ifkirne & Zoé Duclos

  2. Department of Geology, Geoscience Geotourism Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing Laboratory (2GRNT), Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, University of Cadi Ayyad, BP 2390, 40000, Marrakesh, Morocco

    Abdelouahed Farah

  3. Faculty of Natural Sciences, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Będzińska street 60, 41-200, Sosnowiec, Poland

    Quoc Bao Pham

Authors
  1. Mohammed Ifkirne
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  2. Zoé Duclos
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  3. Abdelouahed Farah
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  4. Quoc Bao Pham
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Correspondence to Mohammed Ifkirne.

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Ifkirne, M., Duclos, Z., Farah, A. et al. Projection of maximum temperatures to 2050 in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté region, France. Theor Appl Climatol 149, 1153–1166 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04099-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04099-0

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