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Comprehensive assessment of RegCM4 towards interannual variability of Indian Summer Monsoon using multi-year simulations

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Abstract

In this study, the interannual variability (IAV) of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is investigated using multi-year (1982‒2016) seasonal scale simulations (May‒September) of the regional climate model RegCM4. Model-simulated fields such as surface temperature, wind and rainfall are validated initially to testify the climatological behaviour of ISM. Subsequently, different aspects of IAV associated with ISM are discussed primarily focusing on model simulated rainfall and are verified against high-resolution rainfall analysis from India Meteorological Department (IMD). Analysis indicated that RegCM4 shows reasonable accuracy in simulating major large-scale features, however, has cold bias over entire India and wet (dry) bias over northwest and peninsular (central) India. Easterly (westerly) bias is noticed in the model simulated low (upper) level wind that affects regional Hadley circulation. The cold bias is found to be associated with the feedback cycle of land–atmosphere interaction. Surface evaporative cooling likely affects the static instability in the atmospheric column, thereby limiting the convection and thus reducing rainfall. While categorizing, it is noticed that the efficacy of the model is found to be better in simulating normal monsoon as compared to contrasting monsoon (deficit and excess) year, thereby reducing the simulation skill for the entire period. EOF analysis revealed that first two leading modes of IMD rainfall are linked with large-scale variabilities, viz. El-Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, respectively, but RegCM4 could not well reproduce these relationships. The spectral analysis showed 2–7 year periodicity in the model. However, the associated spectral peaks are close to the red noise spectrum due to their weak power suggesting limited model skill to capture large-scale variability. Overall, this study advocates that the RegCM4 could capture the climatological features of ISM fairly well, but needs further improvement in representing the IAV more accurately.

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Availability of data and material

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Code availability

The model code is publicly available. The codes (third party software) used for analysis may be available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur for providing necessary facilities to conduct the research work. ICTP, Italy, is gratefully acknowledged for providing the RegCM4 model. IMD is duly acknowledged for providing the high resolution temperature and rainfall datasets. NOAA is properly recognized for providing SST datasets. Contributions of reanalysis data from ERA-Interim as well as ERA5, etc., are also rightly confessed.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 236‑0001, Yokohama, Japan

    Suman Maity

  2. Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University, Gokasho Uji, Kyoto, 6110011, Japan

    Sridhara Nayak

  3. Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA

    Hara Prasad Nayak

  4. Department of Geophysics, Institute of Science Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    R. Bhatla

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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Model setup, simulation and data analysis were performed by Suman Maity (corresponding author). The first draft of the manuscript was written by Suman Maity, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Maity, S., Nayak, S., Nayak, H.P. et al. Comprehensive assessment of RegCM4 towards interannual variability of Indian Summer Monsoon using multi-year simulations. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 491–516 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03961-5

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