Abstract
Northeast monsoon season over the southern peninsular India during October–December 2015 and 2016 saw two back-to-back extreme seasonal rainfall performances with excess rainfall leading to floods in 2015 and largely deficient rainfall leading to drought conditions in 2016. Contrasting climate settings and Asian winter monsoon circulation features and the modulations in the seasonal flow pattern over the peninsular India and the dynamical and thermo-dynamical features associated with such contrasting seasons are discussed. During 2015, strong El Niño and positive IOD led to strengthening of easterlies over the peninsular India which resisted the eastward propagation of MJO and confined it mostly in phase 2–4. Associated with positive IOD, enhanced warming prevailed over western Indian Ocean, which led to anomalous ascending motion over the Arabian Sea and adjoining southern peninsula in the winter monsoon Walker circulation feature with anomalous upper tropospheric divergent outflow over these regions. During 2016, weak La Niña, negative to neutral IOD, MJO in the other half of the hemisphere, anomalous low-level cyclonic circulation over the central parts of southern Bay of Bengal and anomalous subsidence over the peninsular India in the Walker circulation with the upper tropospheric divergent outflow shifted to east of 100° E were associated with weakening of easterlies and penetration of continental northerlies into the southern peninsula. Associated with good rainfall activity, there was mid-tropospheric warming of about 1–3 K/day during November 2015, but, in 2016, only a heat sink is observed over most parts of the peninsular India in the mid-troposphere.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Chang CP, Lau KM (1980) Northeasterly cold surges and near-equatorial disturbances over the winter MONEX area during December 1974. Part II: planetary-scale aspects. Mon Weather Rev 108:298–312
Chang CP, Erickson J, Lau KM (1979) Northeasterly cold surges and near-equatorial disturbances over the winter-MONEX area during 1974. Part I: synoptic aspects. Mon Weather Rev 107:812–829
Das PK (1986) Monsoons. Fifth IMO lecture, WMO- Note No.613
Geetha B (2012) Indian Northeast Monsoon as a component of Asian Winter Monsoon and its association with large scale global and regional circulation features. Ph. D Thesis, University of Madras
India Meteorological Department (2012) Indian Northeast Monsoon. Monsoon Monograph, Vol.1, Chapter-13
Kriplani RH, Kumar P (2004) Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over south peninsular India vis-à-vis the Indian Ocean dipole mode. Int J Climatol 24:1267–1282
Luo H, Yanai M (1984) The large-scale circulation and heat sources over the Tibetan plateau and surrounding areas during the early summer of 1979, Part II: heat and moisture budgets. Mon Wea Rev 112:966–989
Prasanna V, Yasunari T (2008) Interannual variability of atmospheric water balance over south peninsular India and Sri Lanka during northeast monsoon season. Int J Climatol 28:1997–2009
Raj YEA, Geetha B (2008) Relation between Southern Oscillation Index and Indian northeast monsoon as revealed in antecedent and concurrent modes. Mausam 59:1,15–1,34
Sreekala PP, Rajeevan K, Bhaskara Rao SV, Srinivasan MA (2018) Combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India. Clim Dyn 51:3865–3882
Sumi A, Murakami T (1981) Large scale aspects of the 1978-79 winter circulation over the greater WMONEX region. Part I: monthly and seasonal mean fields. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 59:625–645
Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2004) An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon Weather Rev 132(8):1917–1932
Yanai M, Tomita T (1998) Seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks as determined from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. J Clim 11:463–482
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department for providing facilities to undertake this study. Use of meteorological data and products of IMD, US-NOAA and BoM, Australia are duly acknowledged.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
B., G., S., B. Diagnostic analysis of two dos-à-dos extreme northeast monsoon seasons with dipolar rainfall performance. Theor Appl Climatol 144, 675–690 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03528-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03528-w