Abstract
This study investigated the relationship between ocean-atmospheric indices and drought in Iran. Using > 30-year precipitation data from 37 synoptic stations (ending 2015), standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for periods of 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 15-, 18-, 24-, and 48-month time scales. A set of monthly ocean-atmospheric oscillations (OA) indices including Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO): (NINO 1.2, NINO 3, NINO 3.4, NINO 4, SOI), and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMo) were also included in our analysis. The simultaneous relationship between SPI and ocean-atmospheric oscillations was investigated using Spearman’s correlation test. The cross correlation function (CCF) coefficient was also utilized to investigate their asynchronous relationships at 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 15-, 18-, 24-, 48-month lag time. Finally, the multivariate linear regression was used to model the end relationships among SPI time-scales and OA indices. AMO and NINO 4 had the most significant and most frequent relationship with SPI in the western and northern parts of Iran. Except for southeastern parts, AMO, NINO 3.4, and NINO 4 had the most significant and most frequent relationship with SPI. Moreover, results showed that asynchronous relationships outperformed simultaneous ones. AMO was recognized as the most important index in modeling the relationship between drought and OA indices across all stations with high potentials to be used for predicting climatic conditions and drought management in Iran.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alijani, B. (1995). The climate of Iran, Tehran, publisher of Payam Noor University
Azhdari Moghaddam M, Khosravi M, Pour Niknam H, Jafari Nadoushan A (2012) Prediction of Drought using fuzzy-neural model, climatic indices, rainfall and drought index (case study: Zahedan). Quarterly Journal of Geography and Development 26:61–72
Darand M (2014) Drought monitoring of Iran by Palmer Drought Index and its relation to atmospheric-oceanic teleconnection patterns. Quarterly Journal of Geographic Research 4(13):82–67
Dezfuli AK, Karamouz M, Araghinejad S (2010) On the relationship of regional meteorological drought with SOI and NAO over southwest Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 100(1):57–66
Dinpashoh Y, Fakheri-Fard A, Moghadamnia M, Jahanbakhsh S, Mirnia M (2004) Selection of variables for the purpose of regionalization of Iran’s precipitation climate using multivariate methods. J Hydrol 297:109–123
Ghasemi AR, Khalili D (2008) The association between regional and global atmospheric pattern and winter precipitation in Iran. Atmos Res 88:116–133
Halabian, A. (2016). Estimation of rainfall spatial and temporal variations in Iran, desert ecosystem engineering journal, Year 5, No13, pp. 101–116
Jafarzadeh, F., Salahi, B., Sobhani, B. (2009). Evaluating effect of ENSO on the droughts and wetness of Ardabil Province, Master's Thesis, Department of Literature and Humanities, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili
Khosravi M (2004) Evaluating relationship between north-hemisphere large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns with annual droughts in Sistan and Baluchestan. Geography and development magazine 2(3):167–188
Komuscu AU (2001) An analysis of recent drought conditions in Turkey in relation to circulation patterns. Drought Network News 13(2–3):5–6
Lim YK, Kim KY (2007) ENSO impact on the space-time evolution of the regional Asian summer monsoons. J Clim 20:2397–2415
Lyon B (2005) ENSO and the spatial extent of interannual precipitation extremes in tropical land areas. Journal of climate 18:5095–5109
Masoudian, SA. (2011). Iran’s climate, Mashhad toos publishing, Mashhad, first edition, autumn 2011, Mashhad
Matyasovszky I (2003) The relationship between NAO and rainfall in Hungary and its nonlinear connection with ENSO Theor. Appl.Climatol. 76:69–75
McCabe, GJ. Betancourt, JL., Gray, ST., Palecki, MA. Hidalgo, HG. (2008. ( Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought. Quaternary International, 188:31–40
McKee, TB. Doesken, NJ. Kleist, J. (1993).“The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales”, 8th conference on Applied Climatology, 17–22 January, Anaheim, pp. 176–184
Modarres R (2006) Regional precipitation climates of Iran. J Hydrol 45:13–27
Mokhtari, A., Islamian, SS., Mousavi, SF. (2012). Evaluation of drought indices and oscillations in Iran with indicators of oceanic oscillations, master’s degree of irrigation and drainage, Department of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology
Nazemosadat, MJ., Ghasemi, A. (2002). Drought and excess rainfall in Sistan and Baluchestan and its relation with the El Niño - south oscillation. Collection of the articles’ first conference on reviewing the water crisis response strategies, pp 24–31
Nazemosadat, MJ., Mostafa Zadeh, K.. (2014). Effect AMO phenomenon on the fluctuation of winter rainfall and the occurrence of dry and wet periods of Iran, second National Conference of water Crisis, Shahrekord of University
Negaresh H, Armesh M (2011) Using the neural network for drought forecasting in Khash. Geographic Studies of Arid Regions 6:33–50 (in Farsi)
Nikzad M, Behbahani khub, A. (2013) Detection of dependencies between ocean-atmospheric and climatic parameters for drought monitoring using data (case study: Khuzestan province). Journal of Iran Water Research 7(13):175–183
Oladipio EO (1985) A comparative performance analysis of three meteorological drought indices. Int J Climatol 5:655–664
Partridge, IJ. (2001. ( Will it rain? The effects of the southern oscillation and El Nino on Australia,3ed :Dept. of primary industries, Brisbane
Qaed Amini H, Nazemosadat MJ, Kuhizadeh M, Sabziparvar A (2014) Separate and simultaneous demonstration of PDO and ENSO phenomena on drought and wetness occurrence in southern Iran. Iranian Geophysics Journal vol. 8(2):92–109
Raziei, T., Daneshkar-Arasteh P., Saghfian, B. (2005). "Annual rainfall trend in arid (Oder) and semi-arid regions of Iran", in ICID 21st European Regional Conference, Frankfurt, Germany, and Słubice, Poland, pp 20–28
Roughani, R., Soltani, S., Bashari, h. (2010). Investigation of rainfall changes in Iran with oceanic-atmospheric indices, master’s thesis of watershed management, Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology
Salahi B, Hajizadeh Z (2013) Analysis on temporal relation of North Atlantic oscillation and Atlantic surface temperature indexes with variability of precipitation and temperature in Lorestan Province. Quarterly journal of geographic research 3:117–128
Salahi B, Khorshiddost A, Ghavidel Rahimi Y (2005) Relationship northern Atlantic oceanic circulation oscillation with East Azarbaijan droughts. University of Tehran, Geographical Research 60:156–147
Salas JD (1993) Analysis and modeling of hydrologic time series. In: Maidment DR (ed) Handbook of hydrology. McGraw Hill, New York, pp 19.1–19.72
Shimizu M, Ambrizzi T (2015) MJO influence on ENSO effects in precipitation and temperature over South America. Theor Appl Climatol 124(1):291–301
Thom HCS (1958) A note on the gamma distribution. Mon Weather Rev 86:117–122
WWW. http://co-public.lboro.ac.uk/cocwd/HydroTest/Details.html. Accessed June 2017
WWW.bom.gov.au/climate. Accessed January 2017
WWW.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Accessed January 2017
WWW.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list Accessed January 2017
WWW.irimo.ir. Accessed December 2016
Yarahmadi D, Azizi Q (2008) Analysis multivariable of seasonal precipitation of Iran and climate indices. Geogr Res 39(62):161–174
Acknowledgements
The authors thank Iran’s Meteorology Organization, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), and NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction for supplying the data used in this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mohammadrezaei, M., Soltani, S. & Modarres, R. Evaluating the effect of ocean-atmospheric indices on drought in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 219–230 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03058-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03058-6