Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Changes in future climate indices using Statistical Downscaling Model in the upper Baro basin of Ethiopia

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate indices are the diagnostic tools used to define the state of climate system. The main objective of this study was to investigate the climate index change in future time periods in the upper Baro basin of Ethiopia. The daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature data were downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The precipitation and temperature data were estimated according to UK Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) global circulation model with medium-high (A2) and medium-low emission (B2) scenarios in three future time interval periods. The De Martonne Aridity Index and Pinna Combinative Index change of the future time periods centered at 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s was computed. The analysis was based on percentage change between the baseline and three future time periods. The monthly De Martonne Aridity Index result showed that there are months in the dry season classified as semi-dry with value of less than 20 and the land needs irrigation in these months. The Pinna Combinative Index value also showed the same trend like that of the De Martonne Aridity Index and a high correlation coefficient was noticed, verifying similar trend of the two indices for the three future time period changes. Overall, humidity is expected to decrease in most of the months in the three future time periods for both A2 and B2 emission scenarios because of the increment of temperature in the future.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abdo KS, Fiseha BM, Rientjes THM, Gieske ASM, Haile AT (2009) Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of Gilgel Abay catchment in Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia. Hydrol Process 23:3661–3669

    Google Scholar 

  • Akonkwa B, Muhigwa B, Montcho SA, Laleye P (2015) Climate change and its impact on the fisheries in Lake Kivu, East Africa Bénin. J Bio Environ Sci 6(2):312–327

    Google Scholar 

  • Awulachew SB, Yilma AD, Loulseged M, Loiskandl W, Ayana M, Alamirew T (2007) Water resources and irrigation development in Ethiopia. Colombo, Siri Lanka. International Water Management Institute (IWMI) working paper 123

  • Baltas E (2007) Spatial distribution of climatic indices in northern Greece. Meteorol Appl 14:69–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baltas EA, Mimikou MA (2005) Climate change impacts on the water supply of Thessaloniki. Int J Water Resour D 21(2):341‒353

  • Boroneant C, Plaut G, Giorgi F, Bi X (2006) Extreme precipitation over the Maritime Alps and associated weather regimes simulated by a regional climate model: present-day and future climate scenarios. Theor Appl Climatol 86(1–4):81–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chadwick R, Coppola E, Giorgi F (2011) An artificial neural network technique for downscaling GCM outputs to RCM spatial scale. Nonlin Process Geophys 18(6):1013–1028

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croitoru AE, Piticar A, Imbroane AM, Burada DC (2013) Spatiotemporal distribution of aridity indices based on temperature and precipitation in the extra-Carpathian regions of Romania. Theor Appl Climatol 112:597–607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deniz A, Toros H, Incecik S (2011) Spatial variations of climate indices in Turkey. Int J Climatol 31(3):394–403

  • Elshamy ME, Seierstad IA, Sorteberg A (2008) Impacts of climate change on Blue Nile flows using bias-corrected GCM scenarios. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 5(3):1407–1439

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fenta AA, Kifle A, Gebreyohannes T, Hailu G (2015) Spatial analysis of groundwater potential using remote sensing and GIS-based multi-criteria evaluation in Raya Valley, northern Ethiopia. Hydrogeol J 23(1):195–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh S, Misra C (2010) Assessing hydrological impacts of climate change: modeling techniques and challenges. Open Hydrol J 4:115–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh S, Mujumdar PP (2006) Future rainfall scenario over Orissa with GCM projections by statistical downscaling. Curr Sci 90(3):396–404

    Google Scholar 

  • Gilroy KL, McCuen RH (2012) A nonstationary flood frequency analysis method to adjust for future climate change and urbanization. J Hydrol 414-415:40–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hadgu G, Tesfaye K, Mamo G (2015) Analysis of climate change in northern Ethiopia: implications for agricultural production. Theor Appl Climatol 121(3–4):733–747

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hassan Z, Harun S (2012) Application of statistical downscaling model for long lead rainfall prediction in Kurau River catchment of Malaysia. Mal J Civ Eng 24(1):1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hrnjak I, Lukić T, Gavrilov MB, Marković SB, Unkašević M, Tošić I (2014) Aridity in Vojvodina, Serbia. Theor Appl Climatol 115(1–2):323–332

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: a special report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacob D (2008) Short communication on regional climate change scenarios and their possible use for impact studies on vector-borne diseases. Parasitol Res 103:3–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kassie BT, Rötter RP, Hengsdijk H, Asseng S, Van Ittersum MK, Kahiluoto H, Van Keulen H (2014) Climate variability and change in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: challenges for rainfed crop production. J Agri Sci 152(01):58–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Z, Xu Z, Charles SP, Fu G, Liu L (2011) Evaluation of two statistical downscaling models for daily precipitation over an arid basin in China. Int J Climatol 31(13):2006–2020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mareuil A, Leconte R, Brissette F, Minville M (2007) Impact of climate change on the frequency and severity of floods in the Châteauguay River basin, Canada. Can J Civ Eng 34(9):1048–1060

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mengistu DT, Sorteberg A (2011) Validation of SWAT simulated streamflow in the eastern Nile and sensitivity to climate change. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 8(5):9005–9062

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Montazerolghaem M, Vervoort W, Minasny B, McBratney A (2016) Spatiotemporal monthly rainfall forecasts for south-eastern and eastern Australia using climatic indices. Theor Appl Climatol 124:1045–1063

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moral FJ, Rebollo FJ, Paniagua LL, García-Martín A, Honorio F (2015) Spatial distribution and comparison of aridity indices in Extremadura, southwestern Spain. Theor Appl Climatol DOI. doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1615-7

  • Nicholls N, Murray W (1999) Workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes: Asheville, NC, USA, 3-6 June 1997 breakout group B: precipitation. Clim Chang 42(1):23–29

  • Niroshinie MAC, Babel MS (2011) Analysis of extreme flooding under future climate change scenarios for Colombo. Annual Research J SLSAJ 11:26–34

    Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S (2010) Spatio-temporal variation of aridity and dry period in terms of irrigation demand in Bangladesh. American-Eurasian J Agric Environ Sci 7(4):386–396

    Google Scholar 

  • Tesfagiorgis K, Gebreyohannes T, De Smedt F, Moeyersons J, Hagos M, Nyssen J, Deckers J (2011) Evaluation of groundwater resources in the Geba basin, Ethiopia. Bull Eng Geol Environ 70(3):461–466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thornton PK, Jones PG, Alagarswamy G, Andresen J (2009) Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in East Africa. Glob Environ Chang 19(1):54–65

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tomozeiu R, Cacciamani C, Pavan V, Morgillo A, Busuioc A (2007) Climate change scenarios for surface temperature in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) obtained using statistical downscaling models. Theor Appl Climatol 90(1–2):25–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilby RL, Dawson CW (2007) Statistical DownScaling Model SDSM version 4.2: a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. User manual

  • Wilby RL, Wigley TM (1997) Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Prog Phys Geogr 21(4):530–548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeleke T, Giorgi F, Tsidu GM, Diro GT (2013) Spatial and temporal variability of summer rainfall over Ethiopia from observations and a regional climate model experiment. Theor Appl Climatol 111(3–4):665–681

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors greatly appreciate the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network for providing the reanalysis products of the NCEP and HadCM3 outputs for the downscaling tool and would like to acknowledge the developers of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The authors would like to thank the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency for providing climatic data for this study. This work was supported by Mekelle University.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geo-information and Earth Observation Sciences, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Mewcha Amha Gebremedhin & Ayele Almaw Fenta

  2. Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Amanuel Zenebe Abraha

  3. Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori, 680-0001, Japan

    Ayele Almaw Fenta

Authors
  1. Mewcha Amha Gebremedhin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Amanuel Zenebe Abraha
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ayele Almaw Fenta
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mewcha Amha Gebremedhin.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Gebremedhin, M.A., Abraha, A.Z. & Fenta, A.A. Changes in future climate indices using Statistical Downscaling Model in the upper Baro basin of Ethiopia. Theor Appl Climatol 133, 39–46 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2151-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2151-4

Search

Navigation