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Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

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Abstract

The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought in Shandong Province of Eastern China were investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. Monthly precipitation and air temperature time series during the period 1960–2012 were collected at 23 meteorological stations uniformly distributed over the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the temporal trends of precipitation, air temperature, and the SPEI drought index. S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify the spatial patterns of drought. The results showed that an insignificant decreasing trend in annual total precipitation was detected at most stations, a significant increase of annual average air temperature occurred at all the 23 stations, and a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI was mainly detected at the coastal stations for all the time scales. The frequency of occurrence of extreme and severe drought at different time scales generally increased with decades; higher frequency and larger affected area of extreme and severe droughts occurred as the time scale increased, especially for the northwest of Shandong Province and Jiaodong peninsular. The spatial pattern of drought for SPEI-1 contains three regions: eastern Jiaodong Peninsular and northwestern and southern Shandong. As the time scale increased to 3, 6, and 12 months, the order of the three regions was transformed into another as northwestern Shandong, eastern Jiaodong Peninsular, and southern Shandong. For SPEI-24, the location identified by REOF1 was slightly shifted from northwestern Shandong to western Shandong, and REOF2 and REOF3 identified another two weak patterns in the south edge and north edge of Jiaodong Peninsular, respectively. The potential causes of drought and the impact of drought on agriculture in the study area have also been discussed. The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought obtained in this study provide valuable information for water resources planning and drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Eastern China.

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Acknowledgments

This study is jointly supported by the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2013BAC05B04); National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51309010); Special Fund for Research on Public Interests (Grant No. 201401036); the Ministry of Water Resources, PR China; the International Science and Technology Cooperation Program of China (Grant No. 2012DFG22140); the Ministry of Science and Technology, PR China; Water Ecological Civilization Pilot Key Technology Research and Development Program (Grant No. SSTWMZCJH-SD02); Department of Water Resources of Shandong Province; and Shandong Province Finance Bureau, PR China.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Depeng Zuo, Siyang Cai, Zongxue Xu, Wenchao Sun, Xiaojing Yang & Pin Liu

  2. Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, 100875, China

    Depeng Zuo, Zongxue Xu & Wenchao Sun

  3. Water Conservancy Research Institute of Shandong Province, Jinan, 250013, China

    Fulin Li

  4. Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    Guangyuan Kan

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  1. Depeng Zuo
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  3. Zongxue Xu
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Correspondence to Zongxue Xu.

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Zuo, D., Cai, S., Xu, Z. et al. Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China. Theor Appl Climatol 131, 271–284 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1969-5

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