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Investigation of the relationship between very warm days in Romania and large-scale atmospheric circulation using multiple linear regression approach

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Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the frequency of very warm days (TX90p) in Romania and large-scale atmospheric circulation for winter (December–February) and summer (June–August) between 1962 and 2010. In order to achieve this, two catalogues from COST733Action were used to derive daily circulation types. Seasonal occurrence frequencies of the circulation types were calculated and have been utilized as predictors within the multiple linear regression model (MLRM) for the estimation of winter and summer TX90p values for 85 synoptic stations covering the entire Romania. A forward selection procedure has been utilized to find adequate predictor combinations and those predictor combinations were tested for collinearity. The performance of the MLRMs has been quantified based on the explained variance. Furthermore, the leave-one-out cross-validation procedure was applied and the root-mean-squared error skill score was calculated at station level in order to obtain reliable evidence of MLRM robustness. From this analysis, it can be stated that the MLRM performance is higher in winter compared to summer. This is due to the annual cycle of incoming insolation and to the local factors such as orography and surface albedo variations. The MLRM performances exhibit distinct variations between regions with high performance in wintertime for the eastern and southern part of the country and in summertime for the western part of the country. One can conclude that the MLRM generally captures quite well the TX90p variability and reveals the potential for statistical downscaling of TX90p values based on circulation types.

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Acknowledgments

The authors Barbu N. and Stefan S. thank the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) for the research funds in the research project CLIMHYDEX “Changes in climate extremes and associated impacts in hydrological events in Romania,” cod PNII-PCCE-ID-2011-2-0073. Author Barbu’s work was supported by the strategic grant POSDRU/159/1.5/9.137750, “Project Doctoral and Postdoctoral programs, support for increased competitiveness in Exact Sciences research”, co-financed by the European Social Founds within the Sectoral Operational Program Human Resources Development 2007–2013.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Magurele, P.O.box MG-11, RO-077125, Bucharest, Romania

    N. Barbu, V. Cuculeanu & S. Stefan

  2. National Meteorological Administration, 97 Bucuresti-Ploiesti Str, Bucharest, Romania

    N. Barbu

  3. Academy of Romanian Scientists, Splaiul Independentei 54, RO-050094, Bucharest, Romania

    V. Cuculeanu

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Correspondence to N. Barbu.

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Barbu, N., Cuculeanu, V. & Stefan, S. Investigation of the relationship between very warm days in Romania and large-scale atmospheric circulation using multiple linear regression approach. Theor Appl Climatol 126, 273–284 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1579-7

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