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Modeling and imaging land-cover influences on air temperature in and near Baltimore, MD

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Abstract

Over the course of 1681 hours between May 5 and September 30, 2006, air temperatures measured at the 1.5-m height at seven sites in and near the city of Baltimore, MD were used to empirically model Δ \( \widehat{T} \) R-p , the difference in air temperature between a site in downtown Baltimore and the six other sites. Variables in the prediction equation included difference between the downtown reference and each of the other sites in upwind tree cover and impervious cover as obtained from 10-m resolution geographic information system (GIS) data. Other predictor variables included an index of atmospheric stability, topographic indices, wind speed, vapor pressure deficit, and antecedent precipitation. The model was used to map predicted hourly Δ \( \widehat{T} \) R-p across the Baltimore region based on hourly weather data from the airport. Despite the numerous sources of variability in the regression modeling, the method produced reasonable map patterns of Δ \( \widehat{T} \) R-p that, except for some areas evidently affected by sea breeze from the Chesapeake, closely matched results of mesoscale modeling. Potential applications include predictions of the effect of changing tree cover on air temperature in the area.

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Notes

  1. The numerical model used by Zhang et al. (2011)is a two-way interactive, “quadruply” nested version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-V2.2) model, coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model with a finest grid size of 0.5 km (Chen et al. 2010). Zhang et al. found generally good agreement of the spatial pattern of their simulated ground surface temperatures (TSKIN) with observations of TSKIN by MODIS satellite measurements at 1840 UTC July 8 and 1745 UTC July 9, 2007. Reasonable agreement was also found between simulated air temperature 2 m agl at four ASOS stations (BWI, Aberdeen Proving Grounds, downtown Baltimore, and Washington National Airport) and the 1.5-m height temperature measurements there. Similar comparisons were made for wind.

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Acknowledgments

Many individuals contributed in various ways to this study including Gregory Bacon, Kenneth Belt, Michelle Bunny, Richard Grant, Eric Greenfield, Sue Grimmond, Peter Groffman, Morgan Grove, John Hom, Karla Hyde, Andrew Lee, Jarlath O’Neil-Dunne, Richard Pouyat, Emma Powell, Hang Ryeol Na, Baohua Tao, Jeffrey Walton, and Yingjie Wang. John Stanovick, statistician with the USDA Forest Service, made numerous suggestions on the statistical analyses. This paper benefited from reviews of an earlier version by Anthony J. Brazel and Winston Chow. The Baltimore Ecosystem Study LTER, operating with contributions from the National Science Foundation grant DEB 0423476, provided some of the technical support staff and instrumentation. Two anonymous reviewers provided unusually helpful and detailed suggestions for improving the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, c/o State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 5 Moon Library, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA

    Gordon M. Heisler & David J. Nowak

  2. The Davey Institute, c/o USDA Forest Service, 5 Moon Library, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA

    Alexis Ellis

  3. Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, c/o Baltimore Ecosystem Study, 5523 Research Park, Suite 350, Baltimore, MD, 21228, USA

    Ian Yesilonis

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  1. Gordon M. Heisler
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Correspondence to Gordon M. Heisler.

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Heisler, G.M., Ellis, A., Nowak, D.J. et al. Modeling and imaging land-cover influences on air temperature in and near Baltimore, MD. Theor Appl Climatol 124, 497–515 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1416-z

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