Interdecadal changes in TC activities that affect Korea

Abstract

The present study elucidated the fact that remarkable interdecadal variation exists in the time series of the tropical cyclone (TC) frequency that affects Korea during June–October. These variations were identified through statistical change-point analysis, and the results showed that significant variation existed in 1983 and 2004. Therefore, data in 2005 and thereafter were excluded and differences in TC activities during the period after 1983 (1984–2004) and a period before 1983 (1968–1983), as well as differences in large-scale environments were analyzed. During the period of 1984–2004, TCs mainly occurred in the northwest quadrant of the subtropical western North Pacific (SWNP). The TCs move from the east sea of Philippines, pass the East China Sea, recurved, and moved to Korea and Japan. During the period of 1968–1983, TCs occurred in the southeast quadrant of the SWNP and showed a characteristic westward movement from the southeast of Philippines toward the southern coast of China and the Indochina Peninsula. Therefore, the intensity of TCs during the former period, which were supplied with greater heat and water vapor from the sea, were stronger, while TCs during the latter period quickly dissipated after landing in the southern coast of China and the Indochina Peninsula due to the effects of topography. Thus, the lifetimes of the TCs were short and their intensities were weak. The cause of these differences in TC activities between the two periods was identified through differences in stream flows between the 850 hPa level and the 500 hPa level. At the 850 hPa level, anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulations are reinforced in most waters north (south) to 10° N, and thus, more (fewer) TCs occur in the northwest (southeast) quadrant of the SWNP during the period of 1984–2004 (1968–2003). At the 500 hPa level, since the center of anomalous cyclonic circulation is located in the southeastern region of China southeast to the east sea of the Philippines, anomalous southerlies from the east sea of Philippines to Korea and Japan are predominant. Due to the anomalous steering flows of these anomalous southerlies, the TCs during the period of 1984–2004 show the aforementioned paths. On the other hand, anomalous northerlies or northeasterlies are reinforced in regions in the west of the center of these anomalous cyclonic circulations, and thus, these anomalous steering flows serve the role of preventing TCs from moving toward the southern coast of China the Indochina Peninsula during the period of 1984–2004. During the period of 1984–2004, vertical wind shears and sea surface temperatures are high and low, respectively, in most waters of the SWNP. Therefore, more TCs occur and are reinforced during this period.