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Status of NCEP CFS vis-a-vis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon

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Abstract

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System (CFS) is selected to play a lead role for monsoon research (seasonal prediction, extended range prediction, climate prediction, etc.) in the ambitious Monsoon Mission project of Government of India. Thus, as a prerequisite, a detail analysis for the performance of NCEP CFS vis-a-vis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is attempted. It is found that the mean monsoon simulations by CFS in its long run are at par with the IPCC models. The spatial distribution of rainfall in the realm of Indian subcontinent augurs the better results for CFS as compared with the IPCC models. The major drawback of CFS is the bifurcation of rain types; it shows almost 80–90 % rain as convective, contrary to the observation where it is only 50–65 %; however, the same lacuna creeps in other models of IPCC as well. The only respite is that it realistically simulates the proper ratio of convective and stratiform rain over central and southern part of India. In case of local air–sea interaction, it outperforms other models. However, for monsoon teleconnections, it competes with the better models of the IPCC. This study gives us the confidence that CFS can be very well utilized for monsoon studies and can be safely used for the future development for reliable prediction system of ISM.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the support from B. N. Goswami, Director IITM, and Dr. Surya Chandra Rao, Program Manager “Development of a System for Seasonal Prediction of Monsoon,” IITM, for pursuing the research. Ferret and NCL Freeware are used extensively in plotting.

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  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune, 411008, India

    Samir Pokhrel, Ashish Dhakate, Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari & Subodh K. Saha

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  1. Samir Pokhrel
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Correspondence to Samir Pokhrel.

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Pokhrel, S., Dhakate, A., Chaudhari, H.S. et al. Status of NCEP CFS vis-a-vis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon. Theor Appl Climatol 111, 65–78 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0652-8

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