Abstract
Extreme climate event (ECE) had exerted great impacts on human life, and the study of extreme climate can reduce the risks caused by ECEs for social and economic development. In the study, we evaluated the spatiotemporal change characteristics of 26 extreme climate indices (ECIs) during 1971–2100 in the North China Plain (NCP) based on observed climate data and 33 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The independence weighted mean (IWM) and arithmetic mean (AM) were used to compare with the performance of individual GCM. The projected ECIs from IWM had smaller normalized root-mean-square error (nRMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) with observations compared to that from the individual GCM and AM, which can better reproduce the temporal trends of ECIs in the historical period (1971–2005). Across the NCP, the extreme low-temperature indices showed significant decreasing trends during 2031–2100 under both of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. However, the extreme high-temperature indices showed significant increasing trends and the change amplitude was larger than that of the extreme low-temperature indices. Most extreme precipitation events (except drought events) will increase across the NCP. Moreover, the change magnitude under RCP8.5 was much higher than that under RCP4.5. Overall, the results indicated that there was great application potential in multi-model ensemble for IWM. Meanwhile, there would be more heat stress and intense precipitation across the NCP in the coming decades of the twenty-first century.
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Data availability and materials
The climatological data that support the findings of this study during manuscript preparation were available from the corresponding author on reasonable request, under links: http://data.cma.cn/ and https://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/index.html.
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Acknowledgements
We are grateful to the NSW Department of Primary Industries, Australia, for providing the statistically downscaled climate data for 33 GCMs from CMIP5.
Funding
This research was supported by the Hebei Provincial Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars (No. D2022205010), Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (No. D2020403016), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41901128) and Technology Program of Hebei Academy of Sciences (22102).
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DX conceptualized the study; YZ helped in methodology and data analysis and writing of original draft preparation; DX, HB, JT, and DL contributed to writing of review and editing; all authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
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Zhao, Y., Xiao, D., Bai, H. et al. Future projection for climate extremes in the North China plain using multi-model ensemble of CMIP5. Meteorol Atmos Phys 134, 90 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00929-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00929-y