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An analysis of the impact of SST drift in the ECMWF system 3 on simulation of the Indian summer climatology

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Abstract

In this paper, the impact of the SST drifts in the ECMWF system 3 forecasting system on the simulated monsoon climatology is investigated. It is shown that hindcasts initialized in February show paradoxically better climatological rainfall in the early monsoon season compared to the hindcasts initialized in the May. The differences in rainfall and SST evolution in the two hindcast sets point to the SST differences as the crucial factor that improves the February initialized hindcasts. Further experiments with the atmospheric component of the ECMWF system 3 forecasting system confirm this by showing similar rainfall biases in the early monsoon season as the hindcasts initialized in the May. This study points to the potential beneficial impacts of reducing systematic biases in the atmospheric components forecasting systems, and of an anomaly initialization technique to improve Indian Monsoon forecasts.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Abdus Salam Centre for Theoratical Physics, Italy which helped this work through its Associate scheme and ECMWF, UK for providing data. SR would like to thank Department of Science and Technology (DST), New Delhi for financial support under the fast track proposals for young scientists.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, 211002, UP, India

    Shailendra Rai

  2. Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Strada Costiera, 11, 34151, Trieste, Italy

    Fred Kucharski

  3. European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, Berkshire, RG2 9AX, UK

    Franco Molteni

  4. Department of Meteorology, Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    Fred Kucharski

Authors
  1. Shailendra Rai
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  2. Fred Kucharski
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  3. Franco Molteni
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Correspondence to Shailendra Rai.

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Responsible Editor: J. T. Fasullo.

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Rai, S., Kucharski, F. & Molteni, F. An analysis of the impact of SST drift in the ECMWF system 3 on simulation of the Indian summer climatology. Meteorol Atmos Phys 128, 629–638 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-015-0429-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-015-0429-6

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