Abstract
Rock mechanical properties are complex but essential for reservoir stimulation. Both experimental and empirical equation method have inevitable defects, and artificial neural network model (ANN) shows great potential in rock mechanics. This paper established a preliminary rock database from the Keshen block in Tarim Basin and improved clustering algorithm to assess the similarity between wells, creating sub-databases and realizing data sharing among similar wells. 18 parameters are used to predict ten rock mechanical properties and corresponding model inputs are optimized by correlation and sensitivity analysis separately. The results show that more accurate predictions can be obtained using optimized sample data and model inputs. The average predicted loss value using all 31 wells (221 samples) was 7.28%, while the value was reduced to 5.4% after clustering analysis using seven wells (95 samples). The average loss value can be further reduced to 4.3% using the optimized model inputs. As for rock peak stress, the predicted loss value is 2.5%, the determination coefficient (R2) is 0.983, and the root mean square error (RMSE) is 0.03. By optimizing training method, improving training sample quality, and optimizing model inputs, the problem of overfitting can be alleviated and a more reliable ANN model can be obtained.
Highlights
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(1)
Defined homogeneity coefficient based on computed tomography and image recognition, which is important for predicting rock mechanical properties.
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(2)
A preliminary database was established based on the rock samples from 31 wells for the training of the artificial neural network model.
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(3)
Improved clustering algorithm and performed similarity analysis between wells, created sub-databases, and improved data quantity and quality.
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(4)
18 parameters are used to predict 10 rock mechanical properties, and model inputs are optimized by correlation and sensitivity analysis.
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Data Availability
The raw/processed data required to reproduce these findings will be made available on request.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the data support from the Tarim oilfield and the financial support from National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52174045).
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This study was supported and supervised by FZ. All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by YT, HL, LH and XT. The first draft of the manuscript was written by YT and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Tian, Y., Zhou, F., Hu, L. et al. Optimization of Rock Mechanical Properties Prediction Model Based on Block Database. Rock Mech Rock Eng 56, 5955–5978 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-023-03378-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-023-03378-0