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An event-duration based rainfall threshold model for landslide prediction in Uttarkashi region, North-West Himalayas, India

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Abstract

The present study is aimed to develop an early warning system for temporal landslide prediction by analysing rainfall and landslide occurrence data of almost a decade along a 50 km road stretch in Uttarkashi district of the Uttarakhand State, India. In the study, an empirical cumulated rainfall event-rainfall duration (ED) model is used to determine the rainfall threshold for landslide occurrences for different exceedance probabilities. The model was validated using the data of the year 2014 and a contingency matrix involving different validation parameters and Receiver Operating Characteristic curve. Additionally, the study analysed the effect of different periods of antecedent rainfall on landslide occurrence by studying the number of landslides triggered by daily rainfall on the landslide event day and antecedent rainfall of different periods before the occurrence of any landslide event.

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Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analysed during this study are available from the corresponding author on request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Director, CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee for his kind permission to publish the research work. Reviewers, Prof. Reginald Hermanns and Prof. Bodo Bookhagen, and the Editor-in-Chief, Prof. Ulrich Riller are duly acknowledged for their constructive and invaluable suggestions which helped immensely to improve the manuscript. The authors are also highly thankful to Dr Mauro Rossi, Abhirup Dikshit, Prodip Mandal and Dr Shraban Sarkar for their valuable suggestions. The Border Roads Organisation (BRO) is also acknowledged for the support during field investigation.

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The authors declare that no funds were received for the research work carried out in the present study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India

    Shantanu Sarkar, Prachi Chandna, Koushik Pandit & Neeraj Dahiya

  2. Academy of Scientific and Innovation Research, Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Shantanu Sarkar, Prachi Chandna, Koushik Pandit & Neeraj Dahiya

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  1. Shantanu Sarkar
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SS conceptualised the research objective and interpreted the results along with drafting the manuscript; PC analysed the data, interpreted the results and prepared the figures; KP interpreted the results and edited the manuscript; ND collected the field data.

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Correspondence to Shantanu Sarkar.

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Sarkar, S., Chandna, P., Pandit, K. et al. An event-duration based rainfall threshold model for landslide prediction in Uttarkashi region, North-West Himalayas, India. Int J Earth Sci (Geol Rundsch) 112, 1923–1939 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-023-02337-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-023-02337-y

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