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Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment

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Abstract

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km2 area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km2) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.

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Acknowledgments

The research in this paper has been partially supported by a doctoral grant from FICYT Fundation (Fundación para el Fomento en Asturias de la Investigación Científica Aplicada y la Tecnología) and by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science Grant MTM2006-07501. Its financial support is gratefully acknowledged. We acknowledge Michel Jaboyedoff an other anonymous revisor for their suggestions and comments that have improved the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Geología, Universidad de Oviedo, 33005, Oviedo, Spain

    María José Domínguez-Cuesta & Montserrat Jiménez-Sánchez

  2. Departamento de Estadística e I.O. y D.M., Universidad de Oviedo, 33007, Oviedo, Spain

    Ana Colubi

  3. European Centre for Soft Computing, 33600, Mieres, Spain

    Gil González-Rodríguez

Authors
  1. María José Domínguez-Cuesta
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  2. Montserrat Jiménez-Sánchez
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  3. Ana Colubi
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  4. Gil González-Rodríguez
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Correspondence to María José Domínguez-Cuesta.

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Domínguez-Cuesta, M.J., Jiménez-Sánchez, M., Colubi, A. et al. Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment. Int J Earth Sci (Geol Rundsch) 99, 661–674 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-008-0414-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-008-0414-0

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