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CSM-CROPGRO model to simulate safflower phenological development and yield

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Abstract

Crop simulation models are valuable tools for decision making regarding evaluation and crop improvement under different field conditions. CSM-CROPGRO model integrates genotype, environment and crop management portfolios to simulate growth, development and yield. Modeling the safflower response to varied climate regimes are needed to strengthen its productivity dynamics. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the performance of DSSAT-CSM-CROPGRO-Safflower (Version 4.8.2) under diverse climatic conditions. The model was calibrated using the field observations for phenology, biomass and safflower grain yield (SGY) of the year 2016–17. Estimation of genetic coefficients was performed using GLUE (Genetic Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) program. Simulated results for days to flowering, maturity, biomass at flowering and maturity and SGY were predicted reasonably with good statistical indices. Model evaluation results elucidate phenological events with low root mean square error (6.32 and 6.52) and high d-index (0.95 and 0.96) for days to flowering and maturity respectively for all genotypes and climate conditions. Fair prediction of safflower biomass at flowering and maturity showed low RMSE (887.3 and 564.3 kg ha−1) and high d-index (0.67 and 0.93) for the studied genotypes across the environments. RMSE for validated safflower grain yield (101.8 kg ha−1) and d-index (0.95) depicted that model outperformed for all genotypes and growing conditions. Longer appropriate growing conditions at NARC-Islamabad took optimal duration to assimilate photosynthetic products lead to higher grain yield. Safflower resilience to different environments showed that it can be used as an alternate crop for different agroecological regions. Furthermore, CROPGRO-Safflower model can be used as tool to further evaluate inclusion of safflower in the existing cropping systems of studied regions.

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Data Availability

Data is available on request to the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

First author is highly thankful to Higher Education Commission of Pakistan for awarding HEC PhD fellowship under the umbrella of International Research Support Initiative Program (IRSIP) to visit Prof. Dr. Gerrit Hoogenboom, Global Food Systems Institute & Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA for getting expertise in the field of crop modeling. Similarly, all authors are thankful to National Agriculture Research Centre Islamabad, University Research Farm Koont and Bahuddin Zakariya University Multan for providing access to all facilities.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, 46300, Pakistan

    Obaid Afzal, Mukhtar Ahmed &  Fayyaz-ul-Hassan

  2. Department of Plant Breeding and Genetics, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, 46300, Pakistan

    Ghulam Shabbir

  3. Institute of Agronomy, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, 60800, Pakistan

    Shakeel Ahmed

  4. Global Food Systems Institute & Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32608, USA

    Gerrit Hoogenboom

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  1. Obaid Afzal
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Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: OA, MA and GH; conducted the experiments OA; made the major contributions to conducting experiments, drafting of the manuscript: OA and MA; provision of lab facilities: SA and GH; analyzed the data: OA and MA; reviewed, edited and prepared the MS for submission: OA, MA, FUH, SA and GH.

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Correspondence to Mukhtar Ahmed.

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Afzal, O., Ahmed, M., Fayyaz-ul-Hassan et al. CSM-CROPGRO model to simulate safflower phenological development and yield. Int J Biometeorol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02662-0

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