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The effect of climate change on malaria transmission in the southeast of Iran

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Abstract

Malaria is a vector-borne disease, likely to be affected by climate change. In this study, general circulation model (GCM)-based scenarios were used for projecting future climate patterns and malaria incidence by artificial neural networks (ANN) in Zahedan district, Iran. Daily malaria incidence data of Zahedan district from 2000 to 2019 were inquired. The gamma test was used to select the appropriate combination of parameters for nonlinear modeling. The future climate pattern projections were obtained from HadGEM2-ES. The output was downscaled using LARS-WG stochastic weather generator under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The effect of climate change on malaria transmission for 2021–2060 was simulated by ANN. The designed model indicated that the future climate in Zahedan district will be warmer, more humid, and with more precipitation. Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the incidence of malaria by ANN showed the number of malaria cases in Zahedan under both scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5). It should be noted that due to the lack of daily malaria data before 2013, monthly data from 2000 were used only for initial analysis; and in preprocessing and simulation analyses, the daily malaria data from 2013 to 2019 were used. Therefore, if proper interventions are not implemented, malaria will continue to be a health issue in this region.

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Notes

  1. Normalized root mean square error.

  2. Normalized mean absolute error.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express sincere thanks to Deputy of Health of Sistan-Baluchistan University of Medical Science and the Meteorological Organization of Iran (IRIMO).

Funding

This work was supported by Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran (grant no. 9900307).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Public Health, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran

    Sairan Nili

  2. Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran

    Sairan Nili

  3. Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Zahra Asadgol

  4. Research Deputy of Iranian Meteorological Organization (IRIMO), Tehran, Iran

    Hamideh Dalaei

  5. Environmental Health Engineering Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

    Narges Khanjani

  6. Monash Centre for Occupational & Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

    Narges Khanjani

  7. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

    Narges Khanjani

  8. Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

    Bahram Bakhtiari

  9. Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

    Younes Jahani

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  1. Sairan Nili
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Correspondence to Narges Khanjani.

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Nili, S., Asadgol, Z., Dalaei, H. et al. The effect of climate change on malaria transmission in the southeast of Iran. Int J Biometeorol 66, 1613–1626 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02305-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02305-2

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