Abstract
The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981–2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981–2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9–40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3–8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981–2009 reduced maize yield by 15–30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981–2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12–24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3–9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9–3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46–67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Angstrom A (1924) Solar and terrestrial radiation. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 50:121–126
Asseng S, van Keulen H, Stol W (2000) Performance and application of the APSIM N-wheat model in the Netherlands. Eur J Agron 12:37–54
Brown I (2013) Influence of seasonal weather and climate variability on crop yields in Scotland. Int J Biometeorol 57:605–614
Che H, Shi G, Zhang X, Arimoto R, Zhao J, Xu L, Wang B, Chen Z (2005) Analysis of 40 years of solar radiation data from China, 1961-2000. Geophys Res Lett 32:L06803
Chen C, Wang E, Yu Q, Zhang Y (2010) Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961–2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain. Clim Chang 100:559–578
Chen G, Liu H, Zhang J, Liu P, Dong S (2012) Factors affecting summer maize yield under climate change in Shangdong Province in the Huanghuaihai Region of China. Int J Biometeorol 56:621–629
Ci X, Li M, Liang X, Xie Z, Zhang D, Li X, Lu Z, Ru G, Bai L, Xie C, Hao Z, Zhang S (2011) Genetic contribution to advanced yield for maize hybrids released from 1970 to 2000 in China. Crop Sci 51:1–8
Jin L, Cui H, Li B, Zhang J, Dong S, Liu P (2012) Effects of integrated agronomic management practices on yield and nitrogen efficiency of summer maize in North China. Field Crops Res 134:30–35
Keating BA, Carberry PS, Hammer GL, Porter ME, Robertson MJ, Holzworth D, Huth NI, Hargreaves JNG, Meinke H, Hochman Z, Mclean G, Verburg K, Snow V, Dimes JP, Silburn M, Wang E, Brown S, Bristow KL, Asseng S, Chapman S, McCown RL, Freebairn DM, Smith CJ (2003) An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation. Eur J Agron 18:267–288
Liu X, Ju X, Zhang F, Pan J, Christie P (2003) Nitrogen dynamics and budgets in a winter wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain. Field Crops Res 83:111–124
Liu Y, Wang E, Yang X, Wang J (2010) Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980s. Glob Chang Biol 16:2287–2299
Liu Z, Yang X, Hubbard K, Lin X (2012) Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China. Glob Chang Biol 18:3441–3454
Lobell DB, Bänziger M, Magorokosho C, Vivek B (2011) Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nat Clim Chang 1:42–45
Lv P, Zhang J, Liu W, Yang J, Su K, Liu P, Dong S, Li D (2011) Effects of nitrogen application on yield and nitrogen use efficiency of summer maize under super-high yield conditions. Plant Nutr Fertil Sci 17:852–860(in Chinese with English abstract)
Mo X, Liu S, Lin Z, Guo R (2009) Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain. Agric Ecosyst Environ 134:67–78
Prescott JA (1940) Evaporation from a water surface in relation to solar radiation. T Roy Soc South Aust 64:114–118
Shuai J, Zhang Z, Liu X, Chen Y, Wang P, Shi P (2013) Increasing concentrations of aerosols offset the benefits of climate warming on rice yields during 1980–2008 in Jiangsu Province, China. Reg Environ Chang 13:287–297
Stansel JW (1975) Effective utilization of sunlight. In: Texas Agricultural Experiment station, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Six Decades of Rice Research in Texas Res Monogr 4:43–50
Tao F, Zhang Z (2010) Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. Eur J Agron 33:103–116
Tao F, Zhang Z (2011) Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature increase: maize productivity and water use in China. Clim Chang 105:409–432
Tao F, Yokozawa M, Xu Y, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z (2006) Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agric For Meteorol 13:82–92
Tao F, Zhang Z, Xiao D, Zhang S, Rotter RP, Shi W, Liu Y, Wang M, Liu F, Zhang H (2014) Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981–2009. Agric For Meteorol 189-190:91–104
Tao F, Zhang S, Zhang Z, Rotter RP (2015) Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China. Agric Ecosyst Environ 208:12–20
Wang Y, Yang Y (2014) China’s dimming and brightening: evidence, causes and hydrological implications. Ann Geophys 32:41–55
Wang J, Wang E, Yang X, Zhang F, Yin H (2012) Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation. Clim Chang 113:825–840
Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ, Ellis RH, Porter JR, Vara Prasad PV (2000) Temperature variability and the annual yield of crops. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82:159–167
Wilcox J, Makowski D (2014) A meta-analysis of the predicted effects of climate change on wheat yields using simulation studies. Field Crops Res 156:180–190
Willmott CJ (1982) Some comments on the evaluation of model performance. B Am Meteorol Soc 63:1309–1313
Xiao D, Tao F (2014) Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades. Eur J Agron 52:112–122
Xiao D, Tao F, Liu Y, Shi W, Wang M, Liu F, Zhang S, Zhu Z (2013) Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981–2009. Int J Biometeorol 57:275–285
Xiao D, Qi Y, Shen Y, Tao F, Moiwo JP, Liu J, Wang R, Zhang H, Liu F (2015) Impact of warming climate and cultivar change on maize phenology in the last three decades in North China Plain. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1450-x
Xiong W, Matthews R, Holman I, Lin E, Xu Y (2007) Modeling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change. Clim Chang 85:433–451
Zhang F (2008) Nitrogen use efficiencies of major cereal crops in China and measures for improvement. Acta Pedol Sinica 45:915–924(in Chinese with English abstract)
Zhang F, Cui Z, Chen X, Ju X, Shen J, Chen Q, Liu X, Zhang W, Mi G, Fan M, Jiang R (2012) Integrated nutrient management for food security and environ-mental quality in China. Adv Agron 116:1–40
Zhang Z, Chen Y, Wang P, Zhang S, Tao F, Liu X (2014) Spatial and temporal changes of agro-meteorological disasters affecting maize production in China since 1990. Nat Hazards 71:2087–2100
Zhang H, Zhao X, Yin X, Liu S, Xue J, Wang M, Pu C, Lal R, Chen F (2015) Challenges and adaptations of farming to climate change in the North China Plain. Climatic Change doi:. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1337-y
Zheng T, Zhang X, Yin G, Wang L, Han Y, Chen L, Huang F, Tang J, Xia X, He Z (2011) Genetic gains in grain yield, net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance achieved in Henan Province of China between 1981 and 2008. Field Crops Res 122:225–233
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41571088 and 41401104), Science and Technology Strategic Pilot Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDA05090308), Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (D2015302017), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2015M570167), and Science and Technology Planning Project of Hebei Academy of Sciences (15101). Funding support by FACCE MACSUR project through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is also gratefully acknowledged. We are thankful to the capable anonymous reviewers and editors who contributed invaluably by raising critical suggestions and remarks during the review phase of this publication.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Xiao, D., Tao, F. Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981–2009. Int J Biometeorol 60, 1111–1122 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1104-9
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1104-9