Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A 323-year long reconstruction of drought for SW Romania based on black pine (Pinus Nigra) tree-ring widths

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation pose a major future challenge for sustainable ecosystem management in Romania. To understand ecosystem response and the wider social consequences of environmental change, we constructed a 396-year long (1615–2010) drought sensitive tree-ring width chronology (TRW) of Pinus nigra var. banatica (Georg. et Ion.) growing on steep slopes and shallow organic soil. We established a statistical relationship between TRW and two meteorological parameters—monthly sum of precipitation (PP) and standardised precipitation index (SPI). PP and SPI correlate significantly with TRW (r = 0.54 and 0.58) and are stable in time. Rigorous statistical tests, which measure the accuracy and prediction ability of the model, were all significant. SPI was eventually reconstructed back to 1688, with extreme dry and wet years identified using the percentile method. By means of reconstruction, we identified two so far unknown extremely dry years in Romania—1725 and 1782. Those 2 years are almost as dry as 1946, which was known as the “year of great famine.” Since no historical documents for these 2 years were available in local archives, we compared the results with those from neighbouring countries and discovered that both years were extremely dry in the wider region (Slovakia, Hungary, Anatolia, Syria, and Turkey). While the 1800–1900 period was relatively mild, with only two moderately extreme years as far as weather is concerned, the 1900–2009 period was highly salient owing to the very high number of wet and dry extremes—five extremely wet and three extremely dry events (one of them in 1946) were identified.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Akkemik Ü, Dağdeviren N, Aras A (2005) A preliminary reconstruction (A.D. 1635–2000) of spring precipitation using oak tree rings in the western Black Sea region of Turkey. Int J Biometeorol 49(5):297–302. doi:10.1007/s00484-004-0249-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baillie MGL, Pilcher JR (1973) A simple cross-dating programme for tree-ring research. Tree-Ring Bull 33:7–14

    Google Scholar 

  • Barbu S (2005) National strategy on climate change of Romania 2005–2007. Romanian Ministry of Environment and Water Management, Bucharest

    Google Scholar 

  • Barbu I, Popa I (2004) Monitoringul secetei în pădurile din România (Drought monitoring in the forests of Romania). Editura Tehnică Silvică, Campulung Moldovenesc

    Google Scholar 

  • Briffa KR, Jones PD (1990) Basic chronology statistics and assessment. In: Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (eds) Methods of dendrochronology: Applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 137–152

    Google Scholar 

  • Büntgen U, Frank DC, Kaczka RJ, Verstege A, Zwijacz-Kozica T, Esper J (2007) Growth responses to climate in a multi-species tree-ring network in the Western Carpathian Tatra Mountains, Poland and Slovakia. Tree Physiol 27(5):689–702. doi:10.1093/treephys/27.5.689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Büntgen U, Brázdil R, Frank D, Esper J (2010) Three centuries of Slovakian drought dynamics. Clim Dyn 35(2):315–329. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0563-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Büntgen U, Brázdil R, Dobrovolný P, Trnka M, Kyncl T (2011) Five centuries of Southern Moravian drought variations revealed from living and historic tree rings. Theor Appl Climatol 105(1):167–180. doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0381-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Busuioc A, Dumitrescu A, Soare E, Orzan A (2007) Summer anomalies in 2007 in the context of extremely hot and dry summers in Romania. Rom J Meteorol 9(1–2):1–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Ceglar A, Kajfež-Bogataj L (2008) Obravnava meteorološke suše z različnimi indikatorji (Analysis of meteorological drought with different indicators). Acta Agric Slov 91(2):407–425

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER (1985) Time series analysis approach to tree ring standardization. Dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Briffa KR (1990) A comparison of some tree-ring standardization methods. In: Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (eds) Methods of dendrochronology: Applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 153–162

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Holmes RL (1999) Program ARSTAN—chronology development with statistical analysis (users manual for program ARSTAN). Report, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (eds) (1990) Methods of dendrochronology: Applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Peters K (1997) Calculating unbiased tree-ring indices for the study of climatic and environmental change. Holocene 7(3):361–370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Briffa K, Shiyatov S, Mazepa V (1990) Tree-ring standardization and growth trend estimation. In: Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (eds) Methods of dendrochronology: applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 104–162

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1994) Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology: a review and comparison of two techniques. Int J Climatol 14:379–402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croitoru A, Toma F, Dragota C (2011) Meteorological drought in central Romanian plain (between Olt and Arges rivers). Case study: year 2000. Riscuri Si Catastrofe 9:113–120

    Google Scholar 

  • Eckstein D, Bauch J (1969) Beitrag zur Rationalisierung eines dendrochronologischen Verfahrens und zur Analyse seiner Aussagesicherheit. Forstwissenschaftliches Centralblatt 88(4):230–250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Esper J, Frank D, Büntgen U, Verstege A, Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E (2007) Long-term drought severity variations in Morocco. Geophys Res Lett 34(17):L17702. doi:10.1029/2007gl030844

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fritts HC (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghioca M (2009) Drought monitoring using self-calibrating Palmer’s indices in the southwest of Romania. Rom Rep Phys 61:151–164

    Google Scholar 

  • Holmes RL (1983) Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree-Ring Bull 43:69–78

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 996

    Google Scholar 

  • Isajev V, Fady B, Semerci H, Andonovski V (2004) EUFORGEN technical guidelines for genetic conservation and use for European black pine (Pinus nigra). Report, international plant genetic resource institute. IPGRI Esco, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Kern Z, Popa I (2007) Climate–growth relationship of tree species from a mixed stand of Apuseni Mts., Romania. Dendrochronologia 24(2–3):109–115. doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2006.10.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kern Z, Popa I, Varga Z, Széles É (2009) Degraded temperature sensitivity of a stone pine chronology explained by dendrochemical evidences. Dendrochronologia 27(2):121–128. doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2009.06.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiss A (2009) Historical climatology in Hungary: role of documentary evidence in the study of past climates and hydrometeorological extremes. Időjárás 113(4):315–339

    Google Scholar 

  • Leal S, Eamus D, Grabner M, Wimmer R, Cherubini P (2008) Tree rings of Pinus nigra from the Vienna basin region (Austria) show evidence of change in climatic sensitivity in the late 20th century. Can J For Res 38(4):744–759. doi:10.1139/x07-189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lebourgeois F, Mérian P, Courdier F, Ladier J, Dreyfus P (2012) Instability of climate signal in tree-ring width in Mediterranean mountains: a multi-species analysis. Trees 26(3):715. doi:10.1007/s00468-011-0638-7

    Google Scholar 

  • Levanič T (2007) ATRICS - A new system for image acquisition in dendrochronology. Tree-Ring Research 63 (2):117–122

    Google Scholar 

  • Linares JC, Tíscar PA (2010) Climate change impacts and vulnerability of the southern populations of Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii. Tree Physiol 30(7):795–806. doi:10.1093/treephys/tpq052

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manea F, Trusca V, Alecu M, Draghici I, Popescu A, Vasile C, Busuioc A, Andrei L (2005) Romania’s third national communication on climate change under the United Nations framework convention on climate change. Ministry of Environment and Water Management, Bucharest

  • Martín-Benito D, Cherubini P, del Río M, Cañellas I (2008) Growth response to climate and drought in Pinus nigra Arn. trees of different crown classes. Trees 22(3):363–373. doi:10.1007/s00468-007-0191-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martín-Benito D, del Río M, Cañellas I (2010) Black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) growth divergence along a latitudinal gradient in Western Mediterranean mountains. Ann For Sci 67(4):401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McDowell NG, Pockman WT, Craig A, Breshears DD, Cobb N, Kolb T, Plaut J, Sperry J, West A, Williams D, Yepez EA (2008) Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought? New Phytol 178(4):719–739

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kliest J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, USA, 17–22. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, USA, pp 179–184

  • Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25(6):693–712. doi:10.1002/joc.1181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (2006) Surface temperature reconstructions for the last 2,000 years. National Academies Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • New M, Lister D, Hulme M, Makin I (2002) A high-resolution data set of surface climate over the global land areas. Clim Res 21:1–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicault A, Alleaume S, Brewer S, Carrer M, Nola P, Guiot J (2008) Mediterranean drought fluctuation during the last 500 years based on tree-ring data. Clim Dyn 31(2):227–245. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0349-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer W (1965) Meteorological drought. Report no. 45, U.S. Weather Bureau. Washington D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Panayotov M, Yurukov S (2007) Tree ring chronology of Pinus peuce from the Pirin Mts and possibilities to use it for climate analysis. Phytologia Balc 13(3):313–320

    Google Scholar 

  • Panayotov M, Bebi P, Trouet V, Yurukov S (2010) Climate signal in tree-ring chronologies of Pinus peuce and Pinus heldreichii; from the Pirin Mountains in Bulgaria. Trees 24(3):479–490. doi:10.1007/s00468-010-0416-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Panayotov M, Dimitrov D, Yurukov S (2011) Extreme climate conditions in Bulgaria—evidence from Picea abies tree-rings. Silva Balc 12(1):37–46

    Google Scholar 

  • Patroescu M, Chincea I, Rozylowicz L, Sorescu C (eds) (2008) Padurile cu pin negru de Banat - Sit Natura 2000 (Banat black pine forests - Natura 2000 site). Editura Brumar, Timisoara

    Google Scholar 

  • Pauling A, Luterbacher J, Casty C, Wanner H (2006) Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation. Clim Dyn 26(4):387–405. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0090-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poljanšek S, Ballian D, Nagel TA, Levanič T (2012) A 435-year-long European black pine (Pinus nigra) chronology for the central-western Balkan region. Tree-Ring Res 68(1):31–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Popa I, Kern Z (2009) Long-term summer temperature reconstruction inferred from tree-ring records from the Eastern Carpathians. Clim Dyn 32(7):1107–1117. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0439-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • R Development Core Team (2009) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria

  • Stefan S, Ghioca M, Rimbu N, Boroneant C (2004) Study of meteorological and hydrological drought in Southern Romania from observational data. Int J Climatol 24:871–881

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stokes MA, Smiley TL (1968) An introduction to tree-ring dating. 2nd edn. The University of Arizona Press, Tucson

  • Strumia G, Wimmer R, Grabner M (1997) Dendroclimatic sensitivity of Pinus nigra Arnold in Austria. Dendrochronologia 15:129–137

    Google Scholar 

  • Touchan R, Funkhouser G, Hughes M, Erkan N (2005a) Standardized precipitation index reconstructed from Turkish tree-ring widths. Clim Chang 72(3):339–353. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5358-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Touchan R, Xoplaki E, Funkhouser G, Luterbacher J, Hughes M, Erkan N, Akkemik Ü, Stephan J (2005b) Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation. Clim Dyn 25(1):75–98. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0016-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Touchan R, Akkemik Ü, Hughes MK, Erkan N (2007) May-June precipitation reconstruction of southwestern Anatolia, Turkey during the last 900 years from tree rings. Quat Res 68(2):196–202. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2007.07.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Touchan R, Meko DM, Aloui A (2008) Precipitation reconstruction for Northwestern Tunisia from tree rings. J Arid Environ 72(10):1887–1896

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Touchan R, Anchukaitis K, Meko D, Sabir M, Attalah S, Aloui A (2011) Spatiotemporal drought variability in northwestern Africa over the last nine centuries. Clim Dyn 37:237–252. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0804-4

    Google Scholar 

  • van Oldenborgh GJ (1999) KNMI climate explorer. Koninklijk Netherlands Meteorologisch Institut (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands

  • Wigley TML, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1984) On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23:201–213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zang C (2009) BootRes: The bootRes package for bootstrapped response and correlation functions. R package, 1st edn. www.R-project.org. Accessed 02 October 2012

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the research project PN-II-RU-TE-2011-3-0040 in Romania, the program and research group “Forest Biology, Ecology and Technology” P4-0107 of the Slovenian Forestry Institute, a research grant by the Slovenian Research Agency (S. Poljanšek) and bilateral cooperation between Slovenia and Romania funded by the Slovenian Research Agency and National Authority for Scientific Research of Romania (ANCS). Fieldwork was carried out in Domogled-Valea Cernei National Park, and we are most grateful to its authorities for allowing us to implement tree sampling in it, as well as providing us with guides in the Park. We are grateful to Martin Cregeen for improving the English language.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Slovenian Forestry Institute, Večna pot 2, 1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia

    Tom Levanič & Simon Poljanšek

  2. Forest Research and Management Institute, Calea Bucovinei 73bis, Campulung Moldovenesc, 725100, Romania

    Ionel Popa & Constantin Nechita

  3. Faculty of Forestry, “Ştefan cel Mare” University of Suceava, Suceava, 72000, Romania

    Constantin Nechita

Authors
  1. Tom Levanič
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ionel Popa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Simon Poljanšek
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Constantin Nechita
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tom Levanič.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Levanič, T., Popa, I., Poljanšek, S. et al. A 323-year long reconstruction of drought for SW Romania based on black pine (Pinus Nigra) tree-ring widths. Int J Biometeorol 57, 703–714 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0596-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0596-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation