Skip to main content
Log in

Estimation of particulate matter concentrations in Türkiye using a random forest model based on satellite AOD retrievals

  • ORIGINAL PAPER
  • Published:
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study estimates intra-daily PM10 concentrations at 213 inland and coastal monitoring sites in Türkiye from 2008 to 2019 using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). An estimation model based on the random forest (RF) approach was developed using the AOD data from the Terra satellite, the meteorological data, and aerosol diagnostics from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and other auxiliary variables. First, the correlation between the matched PM10 concentrations and MODIS AOD was investigated simply with the quadrant regression (QR) approach. Next, the feature selection procedure was applied to obtain the most significant predictive variables for the estimation model. Then, the spatial and temporal performances of the developed RF model were intensely discussed. Finally, a bias analysis based on the most influential input parameters was also performed to examine the potential errors in the estimated PM10 concentrations. As a result, the RF model showed moderately good performance, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.72 and low root mean square error (RMSE) over the entire country, which was better than the results of previous studies in the region. Moreover, the model better estimated PM10 concentrations at individual monitoring sites (with R up to 0.90), particularly in coastal regions. However, overfitting occurred in areas with low populations and few monitoring stations. Additionally, the RF model’s performance varied slightly across different seasons, such as autumn (R ≅ 0.69), spring (R ≅ 0.65), winter (R ≅ 0.64), and summer (R ≅ 0.60), and it did not adequately estimate intra-daily PM10 concentrations at the seasonal scale. Furthermore, the bias analyses indicated that higher PM10 and dust mass concentrations, u and v wind components were significant parameters that caused bias in the estimations. Finally, this study provides valuable information for further applications in PM10 patterns and represents the first step toward constructing a high-resolution satellite-based air quality monitoring network in Türkiye.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study is a Ph. D. thesis financially supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TUBITAK) 2214A International Scholarship Programme for Ph.D. Students. This study was also supported by TUBITAK (Project No: 119Y005). We want to thank TUBITAK for all its financial support. In addition, we gratefully acknowledge NASA for making the MODIS aerosol products, MERRA-2, and AERONET data publicly available. We also thank the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urbanization for making PM10 data publicly available.

Funding

The authors have not disclosed any funding.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

Gizem Tuna Tuygun: formal analysis, methodology, investigation, writing—original draft, writing—review and editing, visualization. Tolga Elbir: conceptualization, methodology, writing—review and editing, supervision.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gizem Tuna Tuygun.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Conflict of interest

The authors have not disclosed any competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 1649 kb)

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Tuna Tuygun, G., Elbir, T. Estimation of particulate matter concentrations in Türkiye using a random forest model based on satellite AOD retrievals. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 3469–3491 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02459-4

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02459-4

Keywords

Navigation