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Extreme wind speed prediction in mountainous area with mixed wind climates

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Abstract

In addition to common synoptic wind system, the mountainous terrain forms a local thermally driven wind system, which makes the mountain wind system have strong terrain dependence. Therefore, in order to estimate the reliable design wind speeds for structural safety, the samples for extreme wind speeds for certain return periods at mountainous areas can only come from field measurements at construction site. However, wind speeds measuring duration is usually short in real practice. This work proposes a novel method for calculating extreme wind speeds in mountainous areas by using short-term field measurement data and long-term nearby meteorological observatory data. Extreme wind speeds in mountainous area are affected by mixed climates composed by local-scale wind and large-scale synoptic wind. The local winds can be recorded at construction site with short observatory time, while the extreme wind speeds samples from synoptic wind climate from nearby meteorological station with long observatory time is extracted for data augmentation. The bridge construction site at Hengduan Mountains in southwestern China is taken as an example in this study. A 10-month dataset of field measurement wind speeds is recorded at this location. This study firstly provides a new method to extract wind speed time series of windstorms. Based on the different windstorm features, the local and synoptic winds are separated. Next, the synoptic wind speeds from nearby meteorological stations are converted and combined with local winds to derive the extreme wind speeds probability distribution function. The calculation results shows that the extreme wind speed in the short return period is controlled by the local wind system, and the long-period extreme wind speed is determined by the synoptic wind system in the mountain area. The descending slope of the synoptic wind speed exceeding probability exceeds the local wind by about 20%. If the influence of mixed climate is not considered, and the wind speed samples are not divided by category, the decline slope will be 7% lower.

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Funding

The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of National Natural Science Foundation of China (52078383, 52008314) and Independent subject of State Key Lab of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering (SLDRCE19-B-11).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Lab of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai, 200092, China

    Teng Ma, Wei Cui, Lin Zhao, Ding Yejun, Fang Genshen & Yaojun Ge

  2. Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Wind Resistant Technology for Bridge Structures, Tongji University, Shanghai, China

    Wei Cui, Lin Zhao, Fang Genshen & Yaojun Ge

Authors
  1. Teng Ma
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  2. Wei Cui
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  3. Lin Zhao
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  4. Ding Yejun
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  5. Fang Genshen
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  6. Yaojun Ge
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Contributions

Conceptualization: CW, MT; Methodology: MT; Formal analysis and investigation: MT, CW; Data curation: WC, YD; Writing - origin draft preparation: MT; Writing - review and editing: CW, ZL; Funding acquisition: CW, ZL; Supervision: GF, ZL, GY.

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Correspondence to Wei Cui.

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Ma, T., Cui, W., Zhao, L. et al. Extreme wind speed prediction in mountainous area with mixed wind climates. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 1163–1181 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02335-7

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