Abstract
Climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes in many parts of the world and they are projected to continue in the future too, thus, posing a major threat to agriculture, biodiversity, ecosystems, and water systems. This study characterized the historical as well as projected future hydro-climatic extremes in the eleven rain-fed watersheds in western Nepal (i.e., south-western watersheds, SWWs). Sixteen climate extreme indices were analyzed using ClimPACT2 tool and nine hydrological extremes using IHA tool. Five CMIP6-based climate models driven by SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios were used to project the future climate. Results showed that the SWWs have experienced progressive warming and increased rainfall during the historical period (1980–2014), and this rising trend is projected to be more prominent in the future (2021–2100), posing risks to the socio-environmental equilibrium. Establishing a positive correlation between the occurrences of climatic and hydrologic extremes, this study also points towards more prevalence of hydrological extremes in the future as well, and therefore, suggests policy and technology recommendations to reduce and adapt to climate change, intending to alert relevant authorities to promptly enact climate-related policies.
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Data Availability
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of Nepal (http://www.dhm.gov.np) provided daily precipitation, temperature, and discharge data for the selected precipitation stations. The data is not available to the public. These data can be purchased (http://dhm.gov.np/pricelist.html) and utilized by the authorized person(s)/institution for the exclusive purpose of their activity. The data provided cannot be used for commercial purposes.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would also like to thank the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Government of Nepal for providing the necessary hydro-meteorological data. The authors are thankful to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive remarks, which have substantially improved the manuscript’s quality.
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Tek Narayan Bhattarai, Swastik Ghimire, Saugat Aryal, Yubin Baaniya, Saurav Bhattarai and Shraddha Sharma contribute equally on this study.
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Bhattarai, T.N., Ghimire, S., Aryal, S. et al. Projected changes in hydro-climatic extremes with CMIP6 climate model outputs: a case of rain-fed river systems in Western Nepal. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 965–987 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02312-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02312-0