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Risk assessment of extreme air pollution based on partial duration series: IDF approach

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Abstract

The occurrences of extreme pollution events have serious effects on human health, environmental ecosystems, and the national economy. To gain a better understanding of this issue, risk assessments on the behavior of these events must be effectively designed to anticipate the likelihood of their occurrence. In this study, we propose using the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) technique to describe the relationship of pollution intensity (i) to its duration (d) and return period (T). As a case study, we used data from the city of Klang, Malaysia. The construction of IDF curves involves a process of determining a partial duration series of an extreme pollution event. Based on PDS data, a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is used to represent its probabilistic behaviors. The estimated return period and IDF curves for pollution intensities corresponding to various return periods are determined based on the fitted GPD model. The results reveal that pollution intensities in Klang tend to increase with increases in the length of time between return periods. Although the IDF curves show different magnitudes for different return periods, all the curves show similar increasing trends. In fact, longer return periods are associated with higher estimates of pollution intensity. Based on the study results, we can conclude that the IDF approach provides a good basis for decision-makers to evaluate the expected risk of future extreme pollution events.

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Acknowledgements

The author is indebted Malaysian Department of Environment for providing air pollution data. This research would not be possible without the sponsorship from the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Grant Number DIP-2018-038).

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  1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia

    Nurulkamal Masseran & Muhammad Aslam Mohd Safari

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  1. Nurulkamal Masseran
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  2. Muhammad Aslam Mohd Safari
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Correspondence to Nurulkamal Masseran.

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Masseran, N., Safari, M.A.M. Risk assessment of extreme air pollution based on partial duration series: IDF approach. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 34, 545–559 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01784-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01784-2

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