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Relevance of spatio-temporal rainfall variability regarding groundwater management challenges under global change: case study in Doñana (SW Spain)

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Abstract

Rainfall is the major contribution for groundwater recharge in arid and semiarid climates, therefore a key factor in water resources estimation. This work presents the results of an in-depth study in Doñana National Park concerning groundwater recharge behavior over a long period (1975–2016). The spatio-temporal kriging algorithm was used as a supportive tool to improve the reconstruction of the spatio-temporal rainfall variability. One of the main findings was that monthly recharge estimations range between 21 and 91% of the maximum rainfall, being overestimated in areas that also demonstrate spatial heterogeneity in rainfall distribution. In the light of these results, for water management purposes in the Mediterranean area, rainfall spatio-temporal scale is a critical aspect and it must be taken into account in groundwater reservoir allocation. Moreover, it is highlighted that local studies of rainfall and recharge, in an area of high ecological fragility, are essential to developing management strategies that prevent climate change effects and guarantee optimal conditions for groundwater resources in the future.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the reviewers and editors for their remarks that helped to improve the manuscript. This research has been funded by CLIGRO Project (MICINN, CGL2016-77473-C3-1-R) of the Spanish National Plan for Scientific and Technical Research and Innovation and it is also part of the activities subsidized within the National System of Youth Guarantee (MINECO activity with reference PEJ-2014-85121 and Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport of the Community of Madrid with ref. PEJ15/AMB/AI-0218)) co-financed under the Youth Employment Operational Program, with financial resources from the Youth Employment Initiative (YEI) and the European Social Fund (ESF).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Facultad de Ciencias Geológicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Calle José Antonio Novais 12, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    N. Naranjo-Fernández & E. Montero-González

  2. Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Calle Ríos Rosas 23, 28003, Madrid, Spain

    C. Guardiola-Albert, H. Aguilera, C. Serrano-Hidalgo & F. Ruiz-Bermudo

  3. Departamento de Sistemas Físicos, Químicos y Naturales, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Carretera de Utrera km 1, 41013, Seville, Spain

    M. Rodríguez-Rodríguez & A. Fernández-Ayuso

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  1. N. Naranjo-Fernández
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Appendices

Appendix 1

See Table 2.

Table 2 Summary statistics of 112 rain gauges used for the spatio-temporal interpolation
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Appendix 2

See Figs. 12 and 13.

Fig. 12
figure 12

Observed versus predicted daily rainfall for the 10 rain gauge stations chosen to test the goodness of the interpolation. Figures a to e correspond to the five rain gauges with a high number of missing values (90%). Figures f to j represent five rain gauges with low degrees of missing information (up to 25%)

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Fig. 13
figure 13

Daily rainfall bias plots for the 10 rain gauge stations chosen to test the goodness of the interpolation. Figures a to e correspond to the five rain gauges with a high number of missing values (90%). Figures f to j represent five rain gauges with low degrees of missing information (up to 25%)

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Appendix 3

See Figs. 14, 15 and 16.

Fig. 14
figure 14

Median and variance of monthly rainfall, when 20 or more days are measured in each moth of the year. Values are computed over the studied period for every rain gauge laying inside each recharge zone defined in Fig. 4

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Fig. 15
figure 15

Mean and variance of daily values for every year of the studied period averaging the values of rain gauges lying inside each recharge zone defined in Fig. 4

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Fig. 16
figure 16

Median percentage rate of rain days in a month and the number of days with data in that month. This ratio was computed for all rain gauges laying inside each recharge zone defined in Fig. 4

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Naranjo-Fernández, N., Guardiola-Albert, C., Aguilera, H. et al. Relevance of spatio-temporal rainfall variability regarding groundwater management challenges under global change: case study in Doñana (SW Spain). Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 34, 1289–1311 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01771-7

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