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Spatiotemporal modeling of relative risk of dengue disease in Colombia

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Abstract

Spatiotemporal modeling of relative risk of dengue disease provides useful risk maps for surveillance and forecasting. The objective of the study was to generate smoothed estimates of relative risk applying hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal models, including covariates derived from satellite images containing land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index, for the period January 2009–December 2015, in a medium–sized Colombian city. Our models are based on the spatiotemporal interaction modeling framework of relative risk, where the interaction effects are unstructured, temporal, spatial or inseparable, at a small spatial and temporal scales. We fitted the models using Markov chain MonteCarlo Simulations, selecting the best model using leave-one-out cross-validation and widely applicable information criteria. Our best model was the inseparable spatiotemporal interaction-effects plus LST with constant coefficient model. We found a weak, positive association between LST and cases of dengue. We discussed the strengths and weaknesses of our spatiotemporal models given the spatial and temporal resolution selected in the study.

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Acknowledgements

Daniel Martínez-Bello acknowledges the support of the COLCIENCIAS by the Grant 646-2014. Antonio López-Quílez would like to thank the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Finance) for its support in the form of the research Grant MTM2016-77501-P (jointly financed with the European Regional Development Fund).

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  1. Departament d’Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Facultat de Matemàtiques, Universitat de València, C/Dr. Moliner 50, 46100, Burjassot, València, Spain

    Daniel Martínez-Bello & Antonio López-Quílez

  2. Secretaría de Salud del Departamento de Santander, Cl. 45 # 11–52, Bucaramanga, Colombia

    Alexander Torres Prieto

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  1. Daniel Martínez-Bello
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  2. Antonio López-Quílez
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  3. Alexander Torres Prieto
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Correspondence to Daniel Martínez-Bello.

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Martínez-Bello, D., López-Quílez, A. & Prieto, A.T. Spatiotemporal modeling of relative risk of dengue disease in Colombia. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 1587–1601 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1461-5

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