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An assessment of using subsampling method in selection of a flood frequency distribution

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Abstract

In flood frequency analysis, a suitable probability distribution function is required in order to establish the flood magnitude-return period relationship. Goodness of fit (GOF) techniques are often employed to select a suitable distribution function in this context. But they have been often criticized for their inability to discriminate between statistical distributions for the same application. This paper investigates the potential utility of subsampling, a resampling technique with the aid of a GOF test to select the best distribution for frequency analysis. The performance of the methodology is assessed by applying the methodology to observed and simulated annual maximum (AM) discharge data series. Several AM series of different record lengths are used as case studies to determine the performance. Numerical analyses are carried out to assess the performance in terms of sample size, subsample size and statistical properties inherent in the AM data series. The proposed methodology is also compared with the standard Anderson–Darling (AD) test. It is found that the methodology is suitable for a longer data series. A better performance is obtained when the subsample size is taken around half of the underlying data sample. The methodology has also outperformed the standard AD test in terms of effectively discriminating between distributions. Overall, all results point that the subsampling technique can be a promising tool in discriminating between distributions.

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Acknowledgments

The author would like to acknowledge the financial support in the form of a faculty start-up fund made available by the School of Hydrometeorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, China. The observed annual maximum flood data series of selected stations were obtained freely from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH), UK website: http://www.ceh.ac.uk/data/nrfa/data.

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  1. School of Hydrometeorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Samiran Das

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Das, S. An assessment of using subsampling method in selection of a flood frequency distribution. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 2033–2045 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1318-3

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