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Transition probability behaviors of drought events in the Pearl River basin, China

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Abstract

Deep understanding of transition probability behaviors of droughts is the key to real-time monitoring of droughts and also to enhancement of human mitigation to droughts. In this case, the transition probability matrix of the Markov chain is derived by the copula functions. Six drought status have been classified in the study, and a drought event with the severity not less than a certain drought status has been considered as a certain severe drought. Then the mean duration of a certain severe drought, the mean first passage time from any drought status to no drought status, and also the mean first passage time from no drought status to a certain severe drought were analyzed in this study. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the exceptional drought lasts about 1.5 months and the abnormally dry lasts about 3 months; (2) it takes about 3.5 months for the exceptional drought status to be recovered to no drought while about 1.7 months for the abnormally dry status to be recovered to no drought; and (3) generally, there is a moderate drought in 0.5 year, a severe drought in 1 years, an extreme drought in 1.5 years, and an exceptional drought in 3.5 years. Further, the results of this study indicate higher risk of drought in the southeast part of the Pearl River basin and these regions are densely populated and economically developed, especially in the Pearl River delta. In addition, the west part of the Pearl River basin has also been identified as a region with a higher risk of drought.

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Acknowledgments

This work was financially supported by the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (Grant No.: 51425903), the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province (Grant No.: 1508085MD65), the Leading Expert Project by Anhui Province and is fully supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK441313). Our cordial thanks should be extended to the editor-in-chief, Prof. Dr. George Christakos, and the associate editor, Prof. Dr. Yiping Wu, and also to two anonymous reviewers for their professional suggestions and pertinent comments which are greatly helpful for further improvement of the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography and Resource Management, and Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China

    Yongqin David Chen

  2. School of Environment and Civil Engineering, Suzhou University, Anhui, 234000, China

    Qiang Zhang

  3. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Qiang Zhang & Mingzhong Xiao

  4. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Qiang Zhang & Mingzhong Xiao

  5. Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA

    Vijay P. Singh

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  1. Yongqin David Chen
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  2. Qiang Zhang
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Correspondence to Qiang Zhang.

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Chen, Y.D., Zhang, Q., Xiao, M. et al. Transition probability behaviors of drought events in the Pearl River basin, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 159–170 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1178-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1178-2

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