Abstract
We model multivariate hydrological risks in the case that at least one of the variables is extreme. Recently, Heffernan JE, Tawn JA (2004) A conditional approach for multivariate extremes. J R Stat Soc B 66(3):497–546 (thereafter called HT04) proposed a conditional multivariate extreme value model which applies to regions where not all variables are extreme and simultaneously identifies the type of extremal dependence, including negative dependence. In this paper we apply this modeling strategy and provide an application to multivariate observations of five rivers in two clearly distinct regions of Puerto Rico Island and for two different seasons each. This effective dimensionality of ten-dimensions cannot be handled by the traditional models of multivariate extremes. The resulting fitted model, following HT04 model and strategies of estimation, is able to make long term estimation of extremes, conditional than other rivers are extreme or not. The model shows considerable flexibility to address the natural questions that arise in multivariate extreme value assessments. In the Puerto Rico 5 rivers application, the model clearly puts together two regions one of two rivers and another of three rivers, which show strong relationships in the rainy season. This corresponds with the geographical distribution of the rivers.
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Notes
Further descriptions of the data can be found at: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/.
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Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank the Editor and the two referees for their valuable comments and suggestions that have greatly improved the paper, and Dr. Jorge Ortiz from the ITES, School of Natural Sciences of the University of Puerto Rico for detailed assistance with data. B. V. M. Mendes gratefully acknowledge Brazilian financial support from CNPq and COPPEAD research grants. L. R. Pericchi thanks National Science Foundation Grant DMS 0604896.
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Mendes, B.V.M., Pericchi, L.R. Assessing conditional extremal risk of flooding in Puerto Rico. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 23, 399–410 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-008-0220-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-008-0220-z