Abstract
Volcanic eruptions have long been studied for their wide range of climatic effects. Although global-scale climatic impacts following the formation of stratospheric sulfate aerosol are well understood, many aspects of the evolution of the early volcanic aerosol cloud and regional impacts are uncertain. In the last twenty years, several advances have been made, mainly due to improved satellite measurements and observations enabling the effects of small-magnitude eruptions to be quantified, new proxy reconstructions used to investigate the impact of past eruptions, and state-of-the-art aerosol-climate modelling that has led to new insights on how volcanic eruptions affect the climate. Looking to the future, knowledge gaps include the role of co-emissions in volcanic plumes, the impact of eruptions on tropical hydroclimate and Northern Hemisphere winter climate, and the role of eruptions in long-term climate change. Future model development, dedicated model intercomparison projects, interdisciplinary collaborations, and the application of advanced statistical techniques will facilitate more complex and detailed studies. Ensuring that the next large-magnitude explosive eruption is well observed will be critical in providing invaluable observations that will bridge remaining gaps in our understanding.
Introduction
Volcanic eruptions have been the most important natural cause of climate change for millennia (e.g. Hegerl et al. 2003; Schurer et al. 2013; 2014), and understanding their impact on climate is vital for investigating how the climate responds to an external forcing and for predicting future volcanic impacts that may influence society (e.g. Gao et al. 2021a; Huhtamaa et al. 2021; Raible et al. 2016; Toohey et al. 2016). The fundamentals of how eruptions impact the climate are well-established: sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted during an eruption forms sulfate aerosol that scatters incoming solar radiation, causing a negative radiative forcing. If SO2 is injected into the stratosphere, where the aerosol can reside for several years, the eruption can lead to a significant decrease in surface insolation and produce surface cooling (e.g. Dutton and Christy 1992; McCormick et al. 1995; Robock and Mao 1995). Sulfate aerosol also absorbs infrared radiation that can lead to a heating of the stratosphere (e.g. Labitzke and McCormick 1992; Stenchikov et al. 1998; Young et al. 1994). Both the cooling and heating effects lead to a cascade of further impacts. The cooling can reduce precipitation and ocean heat content, the heating can change circulation in the atmosphere, and the volcanic aerosol itself can impact atmospheric chemistry leading to ozone depletion (see Robock 2000 for a review). A summary of climate impacts arising from large-magnitude eruptions (defined here as explosive eruptions with injections of more than 5 Tg of SO2 into the stratosphere) is shown in Fig. 1. However, the intricacies of these wider impacts are less well understood than the overall impact on radiation and surface temperature, owing to a lack of observations following large-magnitude eruptions. Most of our knowledge stems from observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, the most recent large-magnitude eruption to have occurred. In addition, differences in the results from different climate models and discrepancies between simulated and observed or reconstructed responses indicate that our understanding is far from complete (e.g. Chylek et al. 2020; Clyne et al. 2021; Pauling et al. 2021; Tejedor et al. 2021a, b; Wilson et al. 2016; see Zanchettin et al. 2016 for a review).
Summary of major climate impacts following a large-magnitude eruption and the processes that produce them, updated from Timmreck (2012). Processes are in bold, climate impacts in blue. Italic text outlines the methods used to understand volcanic-climate impacts (observations, proxy reconstructions and modelling). Key outstanding research questions are shown in boxes. SST is sea surface temperature, ITCZ is Intertropical Convergence Zone and ENSO is El Niño Southern Oscillation. Review papers since that of Robock (2000) include those by Cole-Dai (2010) (ice core focus), Timmreck (2012) (climate modelling focus), Kremser et al. (2016) (non-volcanic and volcanic stratospheric aerosol) and Swingedouw et al. (2017) (explosive eruptions and modes of variability). A collection of highlights on the topic of volcanoes and climate can be found in the 2015 Past Global Changes (PAGES) magazine (LeGrande et al. 2015)
Observations, proxy reconstructions and modelling of volcanic eruption climate effects: advances over the last twenty years
Numerous advances in the field of volcanic effects on climate have been made in the last twenty years despite the absence of a large-magnitude eruption. We now have comprehensive datasets of volcanic SO2, sulfate aerosol and aerosol extinction from ground-based, balloon and satellite measurements (e.g. Carn et al. 2016; Kremser et al. 2016; von Savigny et al. 2020). These data provide much better constraint on volcanic emissions and include daily and near-global observations that show where SO2 and aerosol are dispersed. Improvements in the algorithms used in satellite retrievals have also enabled revised estimates of the emissions of past eruptions, for example those of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption (Carn 2021; Fisher et al. 2019). A notable advance has been the development of the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) (Kovilakam et al. 2020; Thomason et al. 2018), which is a continuous record of stratospheric aerosol optical properties from 1979 to 2018. We have observed a minimum in stratospheric aerosol from 1998 to 2000, and in the years following, observations have demonstrated that stratospheric aerosol variability has been dominated by small-magnitude (< 5 Tg SO2) eruptions (Solomon et al. 2011; Vernier et al. 2011), which have also been important in offsetting some anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (e.g. Monerie et al. 2017; Ridley et al. 2014; Santer et al. 2014; 2015; Schmidt et al. 2018). The recognition that, together, small-magnitude eruptions are important for climatic perturbations is a shift from the traditional idea that it is only the large stratospheric-injecting events that matter for climate (although these do have much larger impacts per eruption). Observations, as well as aerosol modelling, in particular following the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption in Iceland, have also shown that eruptions that emit gases mainly into the troposphere can increase the reflectivity of clouds through an aerosol interaction known as the aerosol-indirect effect. This causes an additional radiative forcing of climate (e.g. Gettelman et al. 2015; Malavelle et al. 2017; McCoy and Hartmann 2015; Schmidt et al. 2010; 2012).
Reconstructions of past temperature variability and of past volcanic radiative forcing have also improved, revealing more details about large historic eruptions and their potential impacts (Sigl et al. 2015). Peaks in sulfate concentrations in ice cores have been used for many years to identify the occurrence of eruptions, as some of the volcanic sulfate aerosol is eventually deposited on the ice sheets and preserved in the ice (Fig. 1). The ice core sulfate concentrations are used to estimate the amount of sulfur that was injected into the atmosphere and the potential impact on climate (Arfeuille et al. 2014; Crowley and Unterman 2013; Gao et al. 2008). Several new, long and seasonally to annually resolved ice core records of volcanic sulfate (Cole-Dai 2010; Sigl et al. 2015) have thus helped to clarify the history and climate forcing of past volcanic eruptions. New reconstructions provide estimates of stratospheric SO2 emissions, eruption latitudes and the stratospheric aerosol optical depth for eruptions over the last 2500 years (Toohey and Sigl 2017) to 10,000 years (Sigl et al. 2022). These reconstructions provide considerable updates to previous reconstructions which had large uncertainties and discrepancies in terms of dates and magnitudes for some eruptions (Jungclaus et al. 2017). Volcanic emissions and forcing reconstructions are important because they are needed as input to climate model simulations and for comparison with reconstructions of past temperature (e.g. Jungclaus et al. 2017; Sigl et al. 2015; Timmreck et al. 2021; Wilson et al. 2016). New large-scale tree-ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature that better capture rapid temperature changes, and which are less prone to long-term memory effects, have shown the dominant role that volcanic eruptions exerted over preindustrial climate variability (e.g. Anchukaitis et al. 2017; Büntgen et al. 2021; King et al. 2021; Schneider et al. 2017; Wilson et al. 2016).
Climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions have evolved considerably in the last twenty years (Timmreck 2012; Timmreck et al. 2018). Climate models have higher spatial resolutions, allowing regional impacts to be better captured. They are also more complex, including more processes such as interactive chemistry and aerosol microphysics. As a result, simulating the effects of volcanic eruptions has evolved from simply turning down the magnitude of the incoming solar radiation to mimic the effects of volcanic aerosol (e.g. Bauer et al. 2003; Peng et al. 2010; Yoshimori et al. 2005), to prescribing aerosol properties (e.g. Ammann et al. 2003; Eyring et al. 2013; Gao et al. 2008), to simulating eruptions from an initial emission of SO2 (e.g. 2006 Mills et al. 2016; SPARC 2006; Timmreck et al. 2018). Improved datasets of volcanic aerosol properties allow eruptions to be better represented in models that: 1) do not have complex aerosol schemes or choose not to use them because of computational cost or 2) prescribe the aerosol properties to be fully consistent with observations and to ensure that the radiative forcing from eruptions is consistent with other models (Zanchettin et al. 2016; 2022). Improved volcanic aerosol forcing datasets that include revised estimates of the post-Pinatubo period and the effects of small-magnitude eruptions have led to better matches between observations and model output of recent surface and tropospheric temperatures trends (e.g. Haywood et al. 2014; Fyfe et al. 2013; 2021; Santer et al. 2014) and of stratospheric warming after the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption (e.g. Arfeuille et al. 2013; Revell et al. 2017; Rieger et al. 2020).
Global climate models with stratospheric aerosol microphysical schemes simulate the aerosol lifecycle. This includes the conversion of SO2 to sulphuric acid vapour, the formation (nucleation) and growth (through condensation and coagulation) of sulfate aerosol, its atmospheric transport, chemical and radiative interactions and deposition (Kremser et al. 2016). These models allow volcanic eruptions to be simulated with greater realism and for the effects of changing the eruption source parameters to be easily explored. Studies have demonstrated that the specific climatic impact is dependent on the emission magnitude, eruption season, altitude of emission and latitude of the volcano (e.g. Arfeuille et al. 2014; Marshall et al. 2019; Metzner et al. 2014; Stoffel et al. 2015; Toohey et al. 2011; 2019). Aerosol-climate modelling studies have also demonstrated the importance of aerosol growth in limiting the climate response as larger particles are less efficient at scattering radiation and fall out of the atmosphere more quickly than smaller particles (e.g. Arfeuille et al. 2014; English et al. 2013; Pinto et al. 1989; Timmreck et al. 2010). Accounting for aerosol growth subsequently reduces the surface temperature response following large-magnitude eruptions and has resulted in better agreement between simulated cooling and that reconstructed from tree rings for some large eruptions in the last millennium (Stoffel et al. 2015). Aerosol-climate modelling studies have also shown the importance of stratospheric heating due to absorption of infrared radiation by sulfate aerosol, as well as by ash and SO2, for lofting aerosol and its subsequent dispersion (e.g. Aquila et al. 2012; Muser et al. 2020; Niemeier et al. 2021; Pitari et al. 2016; Sekiya et al. 2016; Stenchikov et al. 2021).
Novel techniques, such as statistical emulation, have also been applied to aerosol-climate model simulations (Marshall et al. 2019). Statistical emulators can be used to understand how uncertainties in model inputs, in this case different eruption source parameters, can change the model output, such as the radiative forcing caused by an eruption. These emulators replace the model and can be used to make predictions of what the climate impact may be for any given eruption, even if it has not been simulated directly with the model. An example of an emulator surface that predicts the radiative forcing from explosive eruptions occurring at different latitudes and with different SO2 emissions is shown in Fig. 2.
Time-integrated volcanic radiative forcing over three years (in MJ m−2) as a function of eruption latitude and SO2 emission (in Tg of SO2) as predicted by a Gaussian process emulator trained from aerosol-climate simulations of a wide range of explosive eruptions ( modified from Marshall et al. 2019). The emulator allows radiative forcing to be predicted for a wide range of eruptions that were not explicitly simulated and which can be evaluated in a fraction of the time taken to run a climate model simulation
Summary of climate impacts
Over the past two decades, observations, proxies and modelling have, together, led to a better understanding of the wide range of volcano-climate impacts as outlined in Fig. 1. Impacts include:
-
Changes to atmospheric dynamics (e.g. DallaSanta et al. 2019; Diallo et al. 2017; Toohey et al. 2014; Bittner et al. 2016b) including NH winter warming (e.g. Bittner et al. 2016a; Coupe and Robock 2021; Zambri and Robock 2016; Zambri et al. 2017)
-
Ozone depletion (e.g. Brenna et al. 2019; Dhomse et al. 2015; Klobas et al. 2017; Ming et al. 2020; Solomon et al. 2016)
-
A reduction in precipitation (e.g. Iles et al. 2013; Man et al. 2021; Stevenson et al. 2016; Trenberth and Dai 2007)
-
Weaker monsoons (e.g. Fadnavis et al. 2021; Liu et al. 2016; Man et al. 2014; Paik et al. 2020; Zhuo et al. 2021)
-
Reduced ocean heat content (e.g. Church et al. 2005; Dogar et al. 2020; Gleckler et al. 2006; 2016; Gupta and Marshall 2018)
-
Shifts in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (e.g. Colose et al. 2016; Erez and Adam 2021; Haywood et al. 2013; Iles and Hegerl 2014; Ridley et al. 2015)
-
Increased sea ice (e.g. Miller et al. 2012; Gagné et al. 2017; Pauling et al. 2021; Zanchettin et al. 2014)
-
Shifts in phases of modes of climate variability (see Swingedouw et al. 2017 for a review) including the North Atlantic Oscillation (e.g. Hermanson et al. 2020; Sjolte et al. 2021; Zanchettin et al. 2013) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g. Khodri et al. 2017; McGregor et al. 2020; Pausata et al. 2020; Predybaylo et al. 2020; Stevenson et al. 2016)
-
Changes to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (e.g. Fang et al. 2021; Mann et al. 2021; Ménégoz et al. 2018; Pausata et al. 2015; Waite et al. 2020)
-
Disruption to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (Brenna et al. 2021; DallaSanta et al. 2021)
-
Changes to the carbon cycle (e.g. Delmelle et al. 2015; Eddebbar et al. 2019; Foley et al. 2014; Frölicher et al. 2011)
Studies have demonstrated that, following eruptions, adjustments in atmospheric temperature and constituents, such as clouds and stratospheric water vapour, lead to additional radiative effects that alter the overall volcanic forcing (e.g. Gregory et al. 2016; Marshall et al. 2020; Schmidt et al. 2018). Co-emissions of halogens are important for catalysing ozone depletion, which leads to stratospheric cooling that alters both the radiative balance and aerosol size, further impacting the radiative forcing (Staunton-Sykes et al. 2021). Kroll et al. (2021) demonstrated that indirect increases in stratospheric water vapour following eruptions, which affects the radiative budget, depends on the eruption magnitude, the shape of the aerosol layer and its height with respect to the tropopause.
In addition to the recognition that small-magnitude eruptions matter for climate, high-latitude eruptions have also been shown to be more important than previously thought. Analysis of volcanic SO2 emission reconstructions, tree-ring temperature reconstructions and aerosol-climate model simulations suggest that large high-latitude eruptions can significantly impact NH climate, producing stronger hemispheric cooling than tropical eruptions of the same magnitude (Toohey et al. 2019).
Knowledge gaps, uncertainties and future opportunities
For many of the climate impacts listed above, the exact response such as the timing, magnitude or spatial heterogeneity often differs not only between climate model studies, but also between model-simulated and observed or reconstructed responses (e.g. Driscoll et al. 2012; Pauling et al. 2021; Wilson et al. 2016; Zanchettin et al. 2016; Zhuo et al. 2020; Zuo et al. 2021). Aerosol-climate modelling studies have also demonstrated large discrepancies in the simulated aerosol size and dispersion following past large eruptions such as the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora, which leads to differences in the radiative impact, and is a result of differences in the models’ chemistry and aerosol schemes (Clyne et al. 2021). Here we outline some of the main knowledge gaps and research questions and suggest how they may be addressed in the future.
Processes in the volcanic cloud
Although observations of volcanic emissions have improved, uncertainties in satellite retrievals mean that it is still difficult to differentiate the components of even the best-observed volcanic clouds. This includes measurements of the magnitude and vertical distribution of SO2, halogens, water, ash and ice, and the amount and size of sulfate aerosol particles. Accurate estimates of these properties are needed to predict the potential climate impact and are required as input to aerosol-climate models. The 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo remains a benchmark simulation for climate models. However, some aerosol-climate models must inject 10 Tg of SO2, lower than that inferred from satellite observations (~ 14–23 Tg; Guo et al. 2004), in order to best match with extinction measurements (Dhomse et al. 2014; 2020; Mills et al. 2016; 2017). This suggests that either a sink of SO2 in the models is missing, such as scavenging by ash and ice, that the injection altitude and/or simulated lofting of the aerosol was incorrect (Stenchikov et al. 2021), or that the satellite retrievals overestimated the emission. Most of the ash produced during an eruption is short-lived in the atmosphere (Rose et al. 2001), but satellite, aircraft and balloon measurements indicate that some ash particles can remain airborne for many days to months (e.g. Mossop 1964; Pueschel et al. 1994; Vernier et al. 2016). Laboratory studies have shown that ash surfaces react with various gases and liquids such as SO2, sulphuric acid, hydrochloric acid, hydrofluoric acid, ozone and water (e.g. Delmelle et al. 2018; Durant et al. 2008; Gutiérrez et al. 2016; Maters et al. 2017). However, the impacts of ash–SO2 interaction, for example, on the stratospheric SO2 lifetime and sulfur burden have only recently been demonstrated in climate modelling (Zhu et al. 2020). Outstanding questions therefore include:
-
What is the ratio of SO2 to ash and to what extent do they separate as they disperse?
-
How much of the SO2 is scavenged by ash and ice and how does this impact the amount and size of sulfate aerosol and therefore the climate impact?
-
How large do the aerosol particles grow?
Going forward, more complex aerosol-climate models will enable the evolution of sulfate aerosol to be investigated in more detail. Examples include the addition of co-emissions, interactive photolysis where SO2 and aerosol can affect the photolysis rates which impacts the conversion rate of SO2 to sulfate (Osipov et al. 2020), and meteoric smoke particles, on which sulphuric acid can condense (e.g. Brooke et al. 2017; Mills et al. 2005; Saunders et al. 2012). Co-emissions of water and halogens can impact the chemical formation of the sulfate aerosol (LeGrande et al. 2016), but large uncertainties remain in the magnitudes of these emissions for past eruptions (Mather 2015) and not all models include them. Increasing experimental and observational data describing these processes, such as rates and magnitudes of SO2 uptake by ash under various atmospherically relevant conditions (Lasne et al. 2022), present opportunities to integrate interactions involving co-emissions in modelling studies of the climate impacts of explosive eruptions. The Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP; Timmreck et al. 2018) will provide the first intercomparison of stratospheric aerosol properties amongst aerosol-climate models and proposes several standardised model experiments where results will be compared to in situ and satellite observations. Results should lead to an understanding of some of the structural and parametric uncertainties in models and how these differ between simulations of large-magnitude eruptions, such as the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, and small-magnitude eruptions.
Ultimately, the next large-magnitude eruption that occurs will offer the opportunity for new observations, in particular of interactions between SO2, ash, water and halogens, as well as the aerosol size distribution. Such an event will provide a new test case for climate models. Both national (Carn et al. 2021; Fischer et al. 2021) and international response initiatives (VolRes; https://wiki.earthdata.nasa.gov/display/volres) have been developed to coordinate efforts to ensure a rapid response that will enable scientists to gain invaluable observations and to assess the potential impact on climate in the immediate aftermath of the eruption.
Regional impacts
The response of the NH winter climate and the response of ENSO to a volcanic forcing is particularly uncertain. Winter warming following large tropical eruptions is mechanistically often linked to a strengthening of the NH polar vortex, but models have not always been able to capture the response (e.g. Bittner et al. 2016a; Driscoll et al. 2012; Toohey et al. 2014; see Zambri et al. 2017 for an overview), and the mechanism has been questioned (Polvani et al. 2019; Polvani and Camargo 2020), although re-supported by, for example, Azoulay et al. (2021). Coupe and Robock (2021) demonstrated that models could accurately simulate the winter warming after the eruptions of Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, if they also accurately simulated the El Niño states that accompanied these eruptions. Observations and modelling suggest that El Niño events are more likely in the year following an eruption (e.g. Adams et al. 2003; Khodri et al. 2017; Stevenson et al. 2017), although models are still imperfect at capturing the response, and not all observations support the link (Dee et al. 2020, but see Robock 2020; Zhu et al. 2022).
Changes to regional precipitation and the strength of monsoons are also uncertain due to complex spatial patterns, intermodal spread, discrepancies between proxies and disagreement between model simulations and observations or proxy reconstructions (e.g. Gao and Gao 2018; Iles et al. 2013; Rao et al. 2017; Tejedor et al. 2021a). Hemispheric asymmetry in the sulfate aerosol distribution is important for the response of regional hydroclimate (e.g. Colose et al. 2016; Haywood et al. 2013; Jacobson et al. 2020; Yang et al. 2019), but the exact spatial distribution of aerosol is unknown for eruptions prior to the satellite era and therefore there are uncertainties in the volcanic forcing that some models rely upon. The response of precipitation and monsoons is also modulated by ENSO (e.g. Gao et al. 2021b; Paik et al. 2020; Singh et al. 2020). Outstanding questions include:
-
How does the combination of ENSO and the forcing from eruptions (stratospheric heating and tropospheric cooling) impact NH winter circulation?
-
Is there a robust response of regional hydroclimate?
Multi-decadal impacts
Closely spaced volcanic eruptions have been hypothesised to lead to sustained cooling via ocean and sea-ice feedbacks (e.g. Miller et al. 2012; Toohey et al. 2016; van Dijk et al. 2021). However, uncertainties remain regarding the role of internal variability and the dependence on the current climate state (e.g. Moreno-Chamarro et al. 2017; Schneider et al. 2009; Slawinska and Robock 2018; Zanchettin et al. 2012). An outstanding question is, thus: Would a cluster of eruptions cause long-term cooling in today’s climate, or in the future? For a review of how climate change itself affects the climate impact of eruptions (climate-volcanic impacts), see Aubry et al. (2022, this issue).
Dedicated model intercomparison projects such as the Volcanic Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP; Zanchettin et al. 2016), which is motivated by discrepancies between models, will be vital in improving our understanding of both regional and long-term impacts. The project defines a common volcanic forcing input and sets of initial conditions, which will account for previous uncertainties in modelling studies. Advanced statistical techniques, such as emulation, will also enable further detailed studies to explore the sensitivity of climate impacts to parameterisations in models and to the properties of the eruption, as proposed, for example, by Timmreck et al. (2018).
Reconstructing past volcanic forcing
Although reconstructions of past volcanic forcing have improved (Toohey and Sigl 2017), there is uncertainty in the conversion between volcanic sulfate deposition and the stratospheric sulfur burden, with modelling studies demonstrating that this depends on the properties of an eruption (Marshall et al. 2021; Toohey et al. 2013) and the model itself (Marshall et al. 2018). Uncertainties in past volcanic forcing underpin many model-data discrepancies (e.g. Stoffel et al. 2015; Wilson et al. 2016; Zanchettin et al. 2019). Thus, an outstanding question is: How much can ice core sulfate records tell us about the radiative forcing, such as the magnitude, duration, and spatial structure?
Closer connections have now been formed between modelling centres, volcanologists and observation specialists. This has been fostered by international groups such as the Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society (VICS) PAGES working group. Multi-disciplinary studies that combine petrological, historical and climate modelling evidence have led to the attribution of previously unidentified eruptions (from sulfate spikes in ice cores) to specific volcanoes, including the 1257 eruption of Samalas (Lavigne et al. 2013) and the 43 BCE eruption of Okmok (McConnell et al. 2020). Attributing more of the unidentified eruptions to specific volcanoes will aid in improving past reconstructions. Improvements in the techniques used to measure sulfur isotopes in ice cores have also been made, which can indicate whether the sulfur emissions were injected into the troposphere or the stratosphere (e.g. Baroni et al. 2008; Burke et al. 2019; Savarino et al. 2003b). Further aerosol-climate modelling studies to investigate the relationship between sulfate deposition and the radiative forcing, additional ice core records, analyses of sulfur as well as oxygen isotopes (e.g. Gautier et al. 2019; Martin 2018; Savarino et al. 2003a), and more proxy reconstructions especially from the Southern Hemisphere where few records are currently available, will tell us more about these past eruptions and their climate impact.
Conclusions
Research into volcanic effects on the climate has evolved considerably over the last twenty years even in the absence of a large-magnitude eruption. We have better observations of eruptions, better proxy records of temperature changes, better reconstructions of past volcanic forcing from ice core records and state-of-the-art aerosol-climate models that allow eruptions to be simulated in greater detail and uncertainties to be explored. Ultimately, advances will be made following observations and modelling of the next large (≥ 5 Tg SO2) eruption, from dedicated model intercomparison projects (VolMIP and ISA-MIP), as well as from interdisciplinary studies and collaborations between atmospheric scientists, climate modellers, volcanologists and historians. At the time of writing, we are just beginning to see the impact from the January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, the first explosive eruption since Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 to be observed by satellites where material has been injected to extremely high levels in the stratosphere (> 30 km). Although initial estimates of the SO2 emission are too low (~ 0.4 Tg, https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/omps_2012_now.html#hunga, last accessed 28/1/22) to cause global cooling, we anticipate that this eruption will be the focus of many studies to come, especially in understanding interactions between ash, water, ice, halogens and sulfur in the volcanic plume, and impacts on regional weather.
References
Adams JB, Mann M, Ammann C (2003) Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature 426(6964):274–278. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02101
Ammann CM, Meehl GA, Washington WM, Zender CS (2003) A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulations of 20th century climate. Geophys Res Lett 30(12):1657. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL016875
Anchukaitis KJ, Wilson R, Briffa KR, Büntgen U, Cook ER, D’Arrigo R, Davi N, Esper J, Frank D, Gunnarson BE, Hegerl G, Helama S, Klesse S, Krusic PJ, Linderholm HW, Myglan V, Osborn TJ, Zhang P, Rydval M, Schneider L, Schurer A, Wiles G, Zorita E (2017) Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions. Quat Sci Rev 163:1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.020
Aquila V, Oman LD, Stolarski RS, Colarco PR, Newman PA (2012) Dispersion of the volcanic sulfate cloud from a Mount Pinatubo-like eruption. J Geophys Res Atmos 117:D06216. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd016968
Arfeuille F, Luo BP, Heckendorn P, Weisenstein D, Sheng JX, Rozanov E, Schraner M, Bronnimann S, Thomason LW, Peter T (2013) Modeling the stratospheric warming following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption: uncertainties in aerosol extinctions. Atmos Chem Phys 13(22):11221–11234. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013
Arfeuille F, Weisenstein D, Mack H, Rozanov E, Peter T, Bronnimann S (2014) Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600-present. Clim Past 10(1):359–375. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014
Azoulay A, Schmidt H, Timmreck C (2021) The Arctic polar vortex response to volcanic forcing of different strengths. J Geophys Res Atmos 126(11):e2020JD034450. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034450
Baroni M, Savarino J, Cole-Dai J, Rai VK, Thiemens MH (2008) Anomalous sulfur isotope compositions of volcanic sulfate over the last millennium in Antarctic ice cores. J Geophys Res 113:D20112. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010185
Bauer E, Claussen M, Brovkin V, Huenerbein A (2003) Assessing climate forcings of the Earth system for the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett 30(6):1276. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016639
Brenna H, Kutterolf S, Krüger K (2019) Global ozone depletion and increase of UV radiation caused by pre-industrial tropical volcanic eruptions. Sci Rep 9(1):9435. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45630-0
Brenna H, Kutterolf S, Mills MJ, Niemeier U, Timmreck C, Krüger K (2021) Decadal disruption of the QBO by tropical volcanic supereruptions. Geophys Res Lett 48(5):e2020GL089687. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089687
Bittner M, Schmidt H, Timmreck C, Sienz F (2016a) Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty. Geophys Res Lett 43:9324–9332. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070587
Bittner M, Timmreck C, Schmidt H, Toohey M, Krüger K (2016b) The impact of wave-mean flow interaction on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex after tropical volcanic eruptions. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:5281–5297. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024603
Brooke JSA, Feng WH, Carrillo-Sanchez JD, Mann GW, James AD, Bardeen CG, Plane JMC (2017) Meteoric smoke deposition in the polar regions: A comparison of measurements with global atmospheric models. J Geophys Res Atmos 122(20):11112–11130. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd027143
Büntgen U, Allen K, Anchukaitis KJ, Arseneault D, Boucher É, Bräuning A, Chatterjee S, Cherubini P, Churakova OV, Corona C, Gennaretti F, Grießinger J, Guillet S, Guiot J, Gunnarson B, Helama S, Hochreuther P, Hughes MK, Huybers P, Kirdyanov AV, Krusic PJ, Ludescher J, Meier WJH, Myglan VS, Nicolussi K, Oppenheimer C, Reinig F, Salzer MW, Seftigen K, Stine AR, Stoffel M, St. George S, Tejedor E, Trevino A, Trouet V, Wang J, Wilson R, Yang B, Xu G, Esper J, (2021) The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions. Nat Commun 12(1):3411. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6
Burke A, Moore KA, Sigl M, Nita DC, McConnell JR, Adkins JF (2019) Stratospheric eruptions from tropical and extra-tropical volcanoes constrained using high-resolution sulfur isotopes in ice cores. Earth Planet Sci Lett 521:113–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2019.06.006
Carn SA (2021) Multi-Satellite Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide L4 Long-Term Global Database V4, Greenbelt, MD, USA, Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). https://doi.org/10.5067/MEASURES/SO2/DATA405
Carn SA, Clarisse L, Prata AJ (2016) Multi-decadal satellite measurements of global volcanic degassing. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 311:99–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.01.002
Carn SA, Newman PA, Aquila V, Gonnermann H, Dufek J (2021) Anticipating climate impacts of major volcanic eruptions. Eos 102. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO162730
Church J, White N, Arblaster J (2005) Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content. Nature 438(7064):74–77. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04237
Chylek P, Folland C, Klett JD, Dubey MK (2020) CMIP5 climate models overestimate cooling by volcanic aerosols. Geophys Res Lett 47(3):e2020GL087047. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087047
Clyne M, Lamarque JF, Mills MJ, Khodri M, Ball W, Bekki S, Dhomse SS, Lebas N, Mann G, Marshall L, Niemeier U, Poulain V, Robock A, Rozanov E, Schmidt A, Stenke A, Sukhodolov T, Timmreck C, Toohey M, Tummon F, Zanchettin D, Zhu Y, Toon OB (2021) Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble. Atmos Chem Phys 21(5):3317–3343. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021
Cole-Dai J (2010) Volcanoes and climate. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 1(6):824–839. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.76
Colose CM, LeGrande AN, Vuille M (2016) Hemispherically asymmetric volcanic forcing of tropical hydroclimate during the last millennium. Earth Syst Dynam 7(3):681–696. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016
Coupe J, Robock A (2021) The influence of stratospheric soot and sulfate aerosols on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime atmospheric circulation. J Geophys Res Atmos 126(11):e2020JD034513. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034513
Crowley T, Unterman MB (2013) Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism. Earth Syst Sci Data 5(1):187–197. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-187-2013
DallaSanta K, Gerber EP, Toohey M (2019) The circulation response to volcanic eruptions: The key roles of stratospheric warming and eddy interactions. J Clim 32(4):1101–1120. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0099.1
DallaSanta K, Orbe C, Rind D, Nazarenko L, Jonas J (2021) Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to historical volcanic eruptions. Geophys Res Lett 48(20):e2021GL095412. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095412
Dee SG, Cobb KM, Emile-Geay J, Ault TR, Edwards RL, Cheng H, Charles CD (2020) No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium. Science 367(6485):1477–1481. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax2000
Delmelle P, Maters EC, Oppenheimer C (2015) Volcanic influences on the carbon, sulfur, and halogen biogeochemical cycles. In The Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, Academic Press, pp 881–893. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385938-9.00050-X
Delmelle P, Wadsworth FB, Maters EC, Ayris PM (2018) High temperature reactions between gases and ash particles in volcanic eruption plumes. Rev Mineral Geochem 84(1):285–308. https://doi.org/10.2138/rmg.2018.84.8
Dhomse SS, Emmerson KM, Mann GW, Bellouin N, Carslaw KS, Chipperfield MP, Hommel R, Abraham NL, Telford P, Braesicke P, Dalvi M, Johnson CE, O’Connor F, Morgenstern O, Pyle JA, Deshler T, Zawodny JM, Thomason LW (2014) Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model. Atmos Chem Phys 14(20):11221–11246. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014
Dhomse SS, Chipperfield MP, Feng W, Hossaini R, Mann GW, Santee ML (2015) Revisiting the hemispheric asymmetry in midlatitude ozone changes following the Mount Pinatubo eruption: A 3-D model study. Geophys Res Lett 42(8):3038–3047. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063052
Dhomse SS, Mann GW, Antuña Marrero JC, Shallcross SE, Chipperfield MP, Carslaw KS, Marshall L, Abraham NL, Johnson CE (2020) Evaluating the simulated radiative forcings, aerosol properties, and stratospheric warmings from the 1963 Mt Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Mt Pinatubo volcanic aerosol clouds. Atmos Chem Phys 20(21):13627–13654. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13627-2020
Diallo M, Ploeger F, Konopka P, Birner T, Müller R, Riese M, Garny H, Legras B, Ray E, Berthet G, Jegou F (2017) Significant contributions of volcanic aerosols to decadal changes in the stratospheric circulation. Geophys Res Lett 44(20):10,780-10,791. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074662
Dogar MM, Sato T, Liu F (2020) Ocean sensitivity to periodic and constant volcanism. Sci Rep 10:293. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-57027-0
Driscoll S, Bozzo A, Gray LJ, Robock A, Stenchikov G (2012) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions. J Geophys Res 117:D17105. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017607
Durant AJ, Shaw RA, Rose WI, Mi Y, Ernst GGJ (2008) Ice nucleation and overseeding of ice in volcanic clouds. J Geophys Res Atmos 113:D09206. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009064
Dutton EG, Christy JR (1992) Solar radiative forcing at selected locations and evidence for global lower tropospheric cooling following the eruptions of El Chichón and Pinatubo. Geophys Res Lett 19(23):2313–2316. https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL02495
Eddebbar YA, Rodgers KB, Long MC, Subramanian AC, Xie S, Keeling RF (2019) El Niño-like physical and biogeochemical ocean response to tropical eruptions. J Clim 32(9):2627–2649. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0458.1
English JM, Toon OB, Mills MJ (2013) Microphysical simulations of large volcanic eruptions: Pinatubo and Toba. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(4):1880–1895. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50196
Erez M, Adam O (2021) Energetic constraints on the time-dependent response of the ITCZ to volcanic eruptions. J Clim 34(24):9989–10006. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0146.1
Eyring V, Lamarque JF, Hess P, Arfeuille F, Bowman K, Chipperfiel MP et al (2013) Overview of IGAC/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) community simulations in support of upcoming ozone and climate assessments. SPARC Newsletter 40:48–66
Fadnavis S, Müller R, Chakraborty T, Sabin TP, Laakso A, Rap A, Griessbach S, Vernier J-P, Tilmes S (2021) The role of tropical volcanic eruptions in exacerbating Indian droughts. Sci Rep 11(1):2714. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81566-0
Fang SW, Khodri M, Timmreck C, Zanchettin D, Jungclaus J (2021) Disentangling internal and external contributions to Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett 48(23):e2021GL095990. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095990
Fischer TP, Moran SC, Cooper KM, Roman DC, LaFemina PC (2021) Making the most of volcanic eruption responses. Eos 102. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO162790
Fisher BL, Krotkov NA, Bhartia PK, Li C, Carn SA, Hughes E, Leonard PJT (2019) A new discrete wavelength backscattered ultraviolet algorithm for consistent volcanic SO2 retrievals from multiple satellite missions. Atmos Meas Tech 12(9):5137–5153. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5137-2019
Frölicher TL, Joos F, Raible CC (2011) Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and climate to explosive volcanic eruptions. Biogeosciences 8(8):2317–2339. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-2317-2011
Foley AM, Willeit M, Brovkin V, Feulner G, Friend AD (2014) Quantifying the global carbon cycle response to volcanic stratospheric aerosol radiative forcing using Earth System Models. J Geophys Res Atmos 119(1):101–111. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD019724
Fyfe JC, von Salzen K, Cole JNS, Gillett NP, Vernier JP (2013) Surface response to stratospheric aerosol changes in a coupled atmosphere–ocean model. Geophys Res Lett 40:584–588. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50156
Fyfe JC, Kharin VV, Santer BD, Cole JN, Gillett NP (2021) Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Proc Natl Acad Sci 118(23):e2016549118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016549118
Gagné M-È, Kirchmeier-Young MC, Gillett NP, Fyfe JC (2017) Arctic sea ice response to the eruptions of Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo. J Geophys Res Atmos 122(15):8071–8078. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027038
Gao CC, Gao YJ (2018) Revisited Asian monsoon hydroclimate response to volcanic eruptions. J Geophys Res Atmos 123(15):7883–7896. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD027907
Gao C, Robock A, Ammann C (2008) Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models. J Geophys Res Atmos 113:D23111. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010239
Gao C, Ludlow F, Matthews JA, Stine AR, Robock A, Pan Y, Breen R, Nolan B, Sigl M (2021a) Volcanic climate impacts can act as ultimate and proximate causes of Chinese dynastic collapse. Commun Earth Environ 2:234. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00284-7
Gao C-C, Yang L-S, Liu F (2021b) Hydroclimatic anomalies in China during the post-Laki years and the role of concurring El Niño. Adv Clim Change Res 12(2):187–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.006
Gautier E, Savarino J, Hoek J, Erbland J, Caillon N, Hattori S, Yoshida N, Albalat E, Albarede F, Farquhar J (2019) 2600-years of stratospheric volcanism through sulfate isotopes. Nat Commun 10(1):466. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08357-0
Gettelman A, Schmidt A, Kristjansson JE (2015) Icelandic volcanic emissions and climate. Nat Geosci 8(4):243–243. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2376
Gleckler PJ, AchutaRao K, Gregory JM, Santer BD, Taylor KE, Wigley TML (2006) Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion. Geophys Res Lett 33:L17702. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026771
Gleckler PJ, Durack PJ, Stouffer RJ, Johnson GC, Forest CE (2016) Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades. Nat Clim Change 6(4):394–398. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2915
Gregory JM, Andrews T, Good P, Mauritsen T, Forster PM (2016) Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing. Clim Dyn 47(12):3979–3991. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3055-1
Guo S, Bluth GJS, Rose WI, Watson IM, Prata AJ (2004) Re-evaluation of SO2 release of the 15 June 1991 Pinatubo eruption using ultraviolet and infrared satellite sensors. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 5(4):Q04001. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gc000654
Gupta M, Marshall J (2018) The climate response to multiple volcanic eruptions mediated by ocean heat uptake: Damping processes and accumulation potential. J Clim 31(21):8669–8687. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0703.1
Gutiérrez X, Schiavi F, Keppler H (2016) The adsorption of HCl on volcanic ash. Earth Planet Sci Lett 438:66–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.01.019
Haywood JM, Jones A, Bellouin N, Stephenson D (2013) Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall. Nat Clim Change 3(7):660–665. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1857
Haywood JM, Jones A, Jones GS (2014) The impact of volcanic eruptions in the period 2000–2013 on global mean temperature trends evaluated in the HadGEM2-ES climate model. Atmos Sci Lett 15:92–96. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.471
Hegerl GC, Crowley TJ, Baum SK, Kim K-Y, Hyde WT (2003) Detection of volcanic, solar, and greenhouse gas signals in paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric temperature. Geophys Res Lett 30(5):1242. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016635
Hermanson L, Bilbao R, Dunstone N, Ménégoz M, Ortega P, Pohlmann H, Robson JI, Smith DM, Strand G, Timmreck C, Yeager S, Danabasoglu G (2020) Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems. J Geophys Res Atmos 125(9):e2019JD031739. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031739
Huhtamaa H, Stoffel M, Corona C (2021) Recession or resilience? Long-range socioeconomic consequences of the 17th century volcanic eruptions in the far north. Clim Past Discuss 1–24.https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-147
Iles CE, Hegerl GC (2014) The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models. Environ Res Lett 9:104012. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012
Iles CE, Hegerl GC, Schurer AP, Zhang X (2013) The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(16):8770–8786. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50678
Jacobson TWP, Yang W, Vecchi GA, Horowitz LW (2020) Impact of volcanic aerosol hemispheric symmetry on Sahel rainfall. Clim Dyn 55(7):1733–1758. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05347-7
Jungclaus JH, Bard E, Baroni M, Braconnot P, Cao J, Chini LP, Egorova T, Evans M, González-Rouco JF, Goosse H, Hurtt GC, Joos F, Kaplan JO, Khodri M, Goldewijk KK, Krivova N, LeGrande AN, Lorenz SJ, Luterbacher J, Man W, Maycock AC, Meinshausen M, Moberg A, Muscheler R, Nehrbass-Ahles C, Otto-Bliesner BI, Phipps SJ, Pongratz J, Rozanov E, Schmidt GA, Schmidt H, Schmutz W, Schurer A, Shapiro AI, Sigl M, Smerdon JE, Solanki SK, Timmreck C, Toohey M, Usoskin IG, Wagner S, Wu C-J, Yeo KL, Zanchettin D, Zhang Q, Zorita E (2017) The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations. Geosci Model Dev 10(11):4005–4033. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017
Khodri M, Izumo T, Vialard J, Janicot S, Cassou C, Lengaigne M, Mignot J, Gastineau G, Guilyardi E, Lebas N, Robock A, McPhaden MJ (2017) Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa. Nat Commun 8(1):778. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00755-6
King JM, Anchukaitis KJ, Tierney JE, Hakim GJ, Emile-Geay J, Zhu F, Wilson R (2021) A data assimilation approach to last millennium temperature field reconstruction using a limited high-sensitivity proxy network. J Clim 34(17):7091–7111. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0661.1
Klobas JE, Wilmouth DM, Weisenstein DK, Anderson JG, Salawitch RJ (2017) Ozone depletion following future volcanic eruptions. Geophys Res Lett 44(14):7490–7499. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073972
Kovilakam M, Thomason LW, Ernest N, Rieger L, Bourassa A, Millán L (2020) The Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (version 2.0): 1979–2018. Earth Syst Sci Data 12(4):2607–2634. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2607-2020
Kremser S, Thomason LW, von Hobe M, Hermann M, Deshler T, Timmreck C, Toohey M, Stenke A, Schwarz JP, Weigel R, Fueglistaler S, Prata FJ, Vernier JP, Schlager H, Barnes JE, Antuna-Marrero JC, Fairlie D, Palm M, Mahieu E, Notholt J, Rex M, Bingen C, Vanhellemont F, Bourassa A, Plane JMC, Klocke D, Carn SA, Clarisse L, Trickl T, Neely R, James AD, Rieger L, Wilson JC, Meland B (2016) Stratospheric aerosol-Observations, processes, and impact on climate. Rev Geophys 54(2):278–335. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015rg000511
Kroll CA, Dacie S, Azoulay A, Schmidt H, Timmreck C (2021) The impact of volcanic eruptions of different magnitude on stratospheric water vapor in the tropics. Atmos Chem Phys 21(8):6565–6591. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6565-2021
Labitzke K, McCormick MP (1992) Stratospheric temperature increases due to Pinatubo aerosols. Geophys Res Lett 19(2):207–210. https://doi.org/10.1029/91GL02940
Lasne J, Urupina D, Maters EC, Delmelle P, Romanias MN, Thévenet F (2022) Photo-enhanced uptake of SO2 on Icelandic volcanic dusts. Environ Sci Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1039/D1EA00094B
Lavigne F, Degeai JP, Komorowski JC, Guillet S, Robert V, Lahitte P, Oppenheimer C, Stoffel M, Vidal CM, Surono Pratomo I, Wassmer P, Hajdas I, Hadmoko DS, De Belizal E (2013) Source of the great A.D. 1257 mystery eruption unveiled, Samalas volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex. Indonesia. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110(42):16742–16747. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1307520110
LeGrande A, Anchukaitis K, von Gunten L, Goodwin L (2015) Volcanoes and Climate. In: Past Global Changes Magazine. 41–84
LeGrande AN, Tsigaridis K, Bauer SE (2016) Role of atmospheric chemistry in the climate impacts of stratospheric volcanic injections. Nat Geosci 9(9):652–655. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2771
Liu F, Chai J, Wang B, Liu J, Zhang X, Wang Z (2016) Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions. Sci Rep 6:24331. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep24331
Malavelle FF, Haywood JM, Jones A, Gettelman A, Clarisse L, Bauduin S, Allan RP, Karset IHH, Kristjánsson JE, Oreopoulos L, Cho N, Lee D, Bellouin N, Boucher O, Grosvenor DP, Carslaw KS, Dhomse S, Mann GW, Schmidt A, Coe H, Hartley ME, Dalvi M, Hill AA, Johnson BT, Johnson CE, Knight JR, O’Connor FM, Partridge DG, Stier P, Myhre G, Platnick S, Stephens GL, Takahashi H, Thordarson T (2017) Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions. Nature 546(7659):485–491. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22974
Man WM, Zhou TJ, Jungclaus JH (2014) Effects of large volcanic eruptions on global summer climate and East Asian monsoon changes during the last millennium: Analysis of MPI-ESM simulations. J Clim 27(19):7394–7409. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00739.1
Man W, Zuo M, Zhou T, Fasullo JT, Bethke I, Chen X, Zou L, Wu B (2021) Potential influences of volcanic eruptions on future global land monsoon precipitation changes. Earth’s Future 9:e2020EF001803. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001803
Mann ME, Steinman BA, Brouillette DJ, Miller SK (2021) Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing. Science 371(6533):1014–1019. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5810
Marshall L, Schmidt A, Toohey M, Carslaw KS, Mann GW, Sigl M, Khodri M, Timmreck C, Zanchettin D, Ball WT, Bekki S, Brooke JSA, Dhomse S, Johnson C, Lamarque JF, LeGrande AN, Mills MJ, Niemeier U, Pope JO, Poulain V, Robock A, Rozanov E, Stenke A, Sukhodolov T, Tilmes S, Tsigaridis K, Tummon F (2018) Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora Atmos Chem Phys 18(3):2307–2328. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018
Marshall L, Johnson JS, Mann GW, Lee L, Dhomse SS, Regayre L, Yoshioka M, Carslaw KS, Schmidt A (2019) Exploring how eruption source parameters affect volcanic radiative forcing using statistical emulation. J Geophys Res Atmos 124:964–985. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028675
Marshall LR, Smith CJ, Forster PM, Aubry TJ, Andrews T, Schmidt A (2020) Large variations in volcanic aerosol forcing efficiency due to eruption source parameters and rapid adjustments. Geophys Res Lett 47(19):e2020GL090241. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090241
Marshall LR, Schmidt A, Johnson JS, Mann GW, Lee LA, Rigby R, Carslaw KS (2021) Unknown eruption source parameters cause large uncertainty in historical volcanic radiative forcing reconstructions. J Geophys Res Atmos 126(13):e2020JD033578. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033578
Martin E (2018) Volcanic plume impact on the atmosphere and climate: O- and S-isotope insight into sulfate aerosol formation. Geosciences 8(6):198. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8060198
Maters EC, Delmelle P, Rossi MJ, Ayris PM (2017) Reactive uptake of sulfur dioxide and ozone on volcanic glass and ash at ambient temperature. J Geophys Res Atmos 122(18):10,077–10,088. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026993
Mather TA (2015) Volcanoes and the environment: Lessons for understanding Earth’s past and future from studies of present-day volcanic emissions. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 304:160–179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.08.016
McConnell JR, Sigl M, Plunkett G, Burke A, Kim WM, Raible CC, Wilson AI, Manning JG, Ludlow F, Chellman NJ, Innes HM, Yang Z, Larsen JF, Schaefer JR, Kipfstuhl S, Mojtabavi S, Wilhelms F, Opel T, Meyer H, Steffensen JP (2020) Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska’s Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom. Proc Natl Acad Sci 117(27):15443. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002722117
McCormick MP, Thomason LW, Trepte CR (1995) Atmospheric effects of the Mt Pinatubo eruption. Nature 373(6513):399–404. https://doi.org/10.1038/373399a0
McCoy DT, Hartmann DL (2015) Observations of a substantial cloud-aerosol indirect effect during the 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn fissure eruption in Iceland. Geophys Res Lett 42(23):10,409–10,414. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067070
McGregor S, Khodri M, Maher N, Ohba M, Pausata FSR, Stevenson S (2020) The effect of strong volcanic eruptions on ENSO. In: McPhaden MJ, Santoso A, Cai W (eds) El Niño Southern Oscillation in a changing climate, pp 267–287. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch12
Ménégoz M, Cassou C, Swingedouw D, Ruprich-Robert Y, Bretonnière PA, Doblas-Reyes F (2018) Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in modulating the climate response to a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption. Clim Dyn 51(5):1863–1883. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3986-1
Metzner D, Kutterolf S, Toohey M, Timmreck C, Niemeier U, Freundt A, Kruger K (2014) Radiative forcing and climate impact resulting from SO2 injections based on a 200,000-year record of Plinian eruptions along the Central American Volcanic Arc. Int J Earth Sci 103(7):2063–2079. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-012-0814-z
Miller GH, Geirsdottir A, Zhong YF, Larsen DJ, Otto-Bliesner BL, Holland MM, Bailey DA, Refsnider KA, Lehman SJ, Southon JR, Anderson C, Bjornsson H, Thordarson T (2012) Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks. Geophys Res Lett 39:L02708. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl050168
Mills MJ, Toon OB, Thomas GE (2005) Mesospheric sulfate aerosol layer. J Geophys Res 110:D24208. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006242
Mills MJ, Schmidt A, Easter R, Solomon S, Kinnison DE, Ghan SJ, Neely RR, Marsh DR, Conley A, Bardeen CG, Gettelman A (2016) Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990–2014, using CESM1(WACCM). J Geophys Res Atmos 121(5):2332–2348. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024290
Mills MJ, Richter JH, Tilmes S, Kravitz B, MacMartin DG, Glanville AA, Tribbia JJ, Lamarque JF, Vitt F, Schmidt A, Gettelman A, Hannay C, Bacmeister JT, Kinnison DE (2017) Radiative and chemical response to interactive stratospheric sulfate aerosols in fully coupled CESM1(WACCM). J Geophys Res Atmos 122(23):13,061–13,078. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd027006
Ming A, Winton VHL, Keeble J, Abraham NL, Dalvi MC, Griffiths P, Caillon N, Jones AE, Mulvaney R, Savarino J, Frey MM, Yang X (2020) Stratospheric ozone changes from explosive tropical volcanoes: modeling and ice core constraints. J Geophys Res Atmos 125(11):e2019JD032290. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032290
Monerie P-A, Moine M-P, Terray L, Valcke S (2017) Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature. Environ Res Lett 12(5):054010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5
Moreno-Chamarro E, Zanchettin D, Lohmann K, Luterbacher J, Jungclaus JH (2017) Winter amplification of the European Little Ice Age cooling by the subpolar gyre. Sci Rep 7(1):9981. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07969-0
Mossop S (1964) Volcanic dust collected at an altitude of 20 km. Nature 203(4947):824–827. https://doi.org/10.1038/203824a0
Muser LO, Hoshyaripour GA, Bruckert J, Horváth Á, Malinina E, Wallis S, Prata FJ, Rozanov A, von Savigny C, Vogel H, Vogel B (2020) Particle aging and aerosol–radiation interaction affect volcanic plume dispersion: evidence from the Raikoke 2019 eruption. Atmos Chem Phys 20(23):15,015–15,036. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15015-2020
Niemeier U, Riede F, Timmreck C (2021) Simulation of ash clouds after a Laacher See-type eruption. Clim Past 17(2):633–652. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-633-2021
Osipov S, Stenchikov G, Tsigaridis K, LeGrande AN, Bauer SE (2020) The role of the SO2 radiative effect in sustaining the volcanic winter and soothing the Toba impact on climate. J Geophys Res Atmos 125(2):e2019JD031726. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031726
Paik S, Min S-K, Iles CE, Fischer EM, Schurer AP (2020) Volcanic-induced global monsoon drying modulated by diverse El Niño responses. Sci Adv 6(21):eaba1212. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1212
Pauling AG, Bushuk M, Bitz CM (2021) Robust Inter-Hemispheric Asymmetry in the Response to Symmetric Volcanic Forcing in Model Large Ensembles. Geophys Res Lett 48(9):e2021GL092558. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092558
Pausata FSR, Chafik L, Caballero R, Battisti DS (2015) Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC. Proc Natl Acad Sci 112(45):13,784–13,788. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1509153112
Pausata FS, Zanchettin D, Karamperidou C, Caballero R, Battisti DS (2020) ITCZ shift and extratropical teleconnections drive ENSO response to volcanic eruptions. Sci Adv 6(23):eaaz5006. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz5006
Peng Y, Shen C, Wang W, Xu Y (2010) Response of Summer Precipitation over Eastern China to Large Volcanic Eruptions. J Clim 23(3):818–824. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2950.1
Pinto JP, Turco RP, Toon OB (1989) Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in volcanic eruption clouds. J Geophys Res Atmos 94(D8):11165–11174. https://doi.org/10.1029/JD094iD08p11165
Pitari G, Di Genova G, Mancini E, Visioni D, Gandolfi I, Cionni I (2016) Stratospheric aerosols from major volcanic eruptions: A composition-climate model study of the aerosol cloud dispersal and e-folding time. Atmosphere 7(6):75. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7060075
Polvani LM, Banerjee A, Schmidt A (2019) Northern Hemisphere continental winter warming following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption: reconciling models and observations. Atmos Chem Phys 19(9):6351–6366. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6351-2019
Polvani LM, Camargo SJ (2020) Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883. Atmos Chem Phys 20(22):13,687–13,700. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020
Predybaylo E, Stenchikov G, Wittenberg AT, Osipov S (2020) El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to low-latitude volcanic eruptions depends on ocean pre-conditions and eruption timing. Commun Earth Environ 1(1):12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0013-y
Pueschel RF, Russell PB, Allen DA, Ferry GV, Snetsinger KG, Livingston JM, Verma S (1994) Physical and optical properties of the Pinatubo volcanic aerosol: Aircraft observations with impactors and a Sun-tracking photometer. J Geophys Res Atmos 99(D6):12,915–12,922. https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD00621
Raible CC, Brönnimann S, Auchmann R, Brohan P, Frölicher TL, Graf H-F, Jones P et al (2016) Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 7(4):569–589. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.407
Rao MP, Cook BI, Cook ER, D’Arrigo RD, Krusic PJ, Anchukaitis KJ, LeGrande AN, Buckley BM, Davi NK, Leland C, Griffin KL (2017) European and Mediterranean hydroclimate responses to tropical volcanic forcing over the last millennium. Geophys Res Lett 44(10):5104–5112. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073057
Revell LE, Stenke A, Luo B, Kremser S, Rozanov E, Sukhodolov T, Peter T (2017) Impacts of Mt Pinatubo volcanic aerosol on the tropical stratosphere in chemistry–climate model simulations using CCMI and CMIP6 stratospheric aerosol data. Atmos Chem Phys 17(21):13,139–13,150. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13139-2017
Ridley DA, Solomon S, Barnes JE, Burlakov VD, Deshler T, Dolgii SI, Herber AB, Nagai T, Neely RR III, Nevzorov AV, Ritter C, Sakai T, Santer BD, Sato M, Schmidt A, Uchino O, Vernier JP (2014) Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change. Geophys Res Lett 41(22):7763–7769. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061541
Ridley HE, Asmerom Y, Baldini JUL, Breitenbach SFM, Aquino VV, Prufer KM, Culleton BJ, Polyak V, Lechleitner FA, Kennett DJ, Zhang MH, Marwan N, Macpherson CG, Baldini LM, Xiao TY, Peterkin JL, Awe J, Haug GH (2015) Aerosol forcing of the position of the intertropical convergence zone since AD 1550. Nat Geosci 8(3):195–200. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2353
Rieger LA, Cole JNS, Fyfe JC, Po-Chedley S, Cameron-Smith PJ, Durack PJ, Gillett NP, Tang Q (2020) Quantifying CanESM5 and EAMv1 sensitivities to Mt Pinatubo volcanic forcing for the CMIP6 historical experiment. Geosci Model Dev 13(10):4831–4843. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4831-2020
Robock A (2000) Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev Geophys 38(2):191–219. https://doi.org/10.1029/1998rg000054
Robock A (2020) Comment on "No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium". Science 369(6509) https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc0502
Robock A, Mao J (1995) The volcanic signal in surface temperature observations. J Clim 8(5):1086–1103. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008%3c1086:TVSIST%3e2.0.CO;2
Rose WI, Bluth GJS, Schneider DJ, Ernst GGJ, Riley CM, Henderson LJ, McGimsey RG (2001) Observations of volcanic clouds in their first few days of atmospheric residence: the 1992 eruptions of Crater Peak, Mount Spurr Volcano, Alaska. J Geol 109(6):677–694. https://doi.org/10.1086/323189
Santer BD, Bonfils C, Painter JF, Zelinka MD, Mears C, Solomon S, Schmidt GA, Fyfe JC, Cole JNS, Nazarenko L, Taylor KE, Wentz FJ (2014) Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nat Geosci 7(3):185–189. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2098
Santer BD, Solomon S, Bonfils C, Zelinka MD, Painter JF, Beltran F, Fyfe JC, Johannesson G, Mears C, Ridley DA, Vernier J-P, Wentz FJ (2015) Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity. Geophys Res Lett 42(2):500–509. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062366
Saunders RW, Dhomse S, Tian WS, Chipperfield MP, Plane JMC (2012) Interactions of meteoric smoke particles with sulphuric acid in the Earth’s stratosphere. Atmos Chem Phys 12(10):4387–4398. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-4387-2012
Savarino J, Bekki S, Cole-Dai J, Thiemens MH (2003a) Evidence from sulfate mass independent oxygen isotopic compositions of dramatic changes in atmospheric oxidation following massive volcanic eruptions. J Geophys Res 108(D21):4671. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003737
Savarino J, Romero A, Cole-Dai J, Bekki S, Thiemens MH (2003b) UV induced mass-independent sulfur isotope fractionation in stratospheric volcanic sulfate. Geophys Res Lett 30(21):2131. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018134
Schmidt A, Carslaw KS, Mann GW, Wilson M, Breider TJ, Pickering SJ, Thordarson T (2010) The impact of the 1783–1784 AD Laki eruption on global aerosol formation processes and cloud condensation nuclei. Atmos Chem Phys 10(13):6025–6041. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-6025-2010
Schmidt A, Carslaw KS, Mann GW, Rap A, Pringle KJ, Spracklen DV, Wilson M, Forster PM (2012) Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate. Atmos Chem Phys 12(16):7321–7339. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-7321-2012
Schmidt A, Mills MJ, Ghan S, Gregory JM, Allan RP, Andrews T, Bardeen CG, Conley A, Forster PM, Gettelman A, Portmann RW, Solomon S, Toon OB (2018) Volcanic radiative forcing from 1979 to 2015. J Geophys Res Atmos 123(22):12,491–12,508. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd028776
Schneider DP, Ammann CM, Otto-Bliesner BL, Kaufman DS (2009) Climate response to large, high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Community Climate System Model. J Geophys Res Atmos 114:D15101. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd011222
Schneider L, Smerdon JE, Pretis F, Hartl-Meier C, Esper J (2017) A new archive of large volcanic events over the past millennium derived from reconstructed summer temperatures. Environ Res Lett 12(9):094005
Schurer AP, Hegerl GC, Mann ME, Tett SFB, Phipps SJ (2013) Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past millennium. J Clim 26(18):6954–6973. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00826.1
Schurer A, Tett S, Hegerl G (2014) Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium. Nature Geosci 7:104–108. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2040
Sekiya T, Sudo K, Nagai T (2016) Evolution of stratospheric sulfate aerosol from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption: Roles of aerosol microphysical processes. J Geophys Res Atmos 121(6):2911–2938. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024313
Sigl M, Winstrup M, McConnell JR, Welten KC, Plunkett G, Ludlow F, Buntgen U, Caffee M, Chellman N, Dahl-Jensen D, Fischer H, Kipfstuhl S, Kostick C, Maselli OJ, Mekhaldi F, Mulvaney R, Muscheler R, Pasteris DR, Pilcher JR, Salzer M, Schupbach S, Steffensen JP, Vinther BM, Woodruff TE (2015) Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years. Nature 523(7562):543–549. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565
Sigl M, Toohey M, McConnell JR, Cole-Dai J, Severi M (2022) Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth during the Holocene (past 11,500 years) from a bipolar ice core array. Earth Syst Sci Data Discuss 2022:1–45. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-422
Singh M, Krishnan R, Goswami B, Choudhury AD, Swapna P, Vellore R, Prajeesh AG, Sandeep N, Venkataraman C, Donner RV, Marwan N, Kurths J (2020) Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO-Indian monsoon coupling. Sci Adv 6(38):eaba8164. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba8164
Sjolte J, Adolphi F, Guðlaugsdòttir H, Muscheler R (2021) Major differences in regional climate impact between high- and low-latitude volcanic eruptions. Geophys Res Lett 48(8):e2020GL092017. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092017
Slawinska J, Robock A (2018) Impact of volcanic eruptions on decadal to centennial fluctuations of Arctic sea ice extent during the last millennium and on initiation of the Little Ice Age. J Clim 31(6):2145–2167. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0498.1
Solomon S, Daniel JS, Neely RR, Vernier J-P, Dutton EG, Thomason LW (2011) The persistently variable background stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change. Science 333(6044):866–870. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1206027
Solomon S, Ivy Diane J, Kinnison D, Mills Michael J, Neely Ryan R, Schmidt A (2016) Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer. Science 353(6296):269–274. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aae0061
SPARC, (2006) SPARC Assessment of Stratospheric Aerosol Properties (ASAP). Thomason L, Peter, T (Eds.), SPARC Report No. 4, WCRP-124, WMO/TD – No. 1295, available at www.sparc-climate.org/publications/sparc-reports/
Staunton-Sykes J, Aubry TJ, Shin YM, Weber J, Marshall LR, Luke Abraham N, Archibald A, Schmidt A (2021) Co-emission of volcanic sulfur and halogens amplifies volcanic effective radiative forcing. Atmos Chem Phys 21(11):9009–9029. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9009-2021
Stenchikov GL, Kirchner I, Robock A, Graf H-F, Antuña JC, Grainger RG, Lambert A, Thomason L (1998) Radiative forcing from the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. J Geophys Res 103(D12):13,837–13,857. https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD00693
Stenchikov G, Ukhov A, Osipov S, Ahmadov R, Grell G, Cady-Pereira K, Mlawer E, Iacono M (2021) How does a Pinatubo-size volcanic cloud reach the middle stratosphere? J Geophys Res Atmos 126(10):e2020JD033829. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033829
Stevenson S, Otto-Bliesner B, Fasullo J, Brady E (2016) “El Niño like” hydroclimate responses to last millennium volcanic eruptions. J Clim 29(8):2907–2921. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0239.1
Stevenson S, Fasullo JT, Otto-Bliesner BL, Tomas RA, Gao C (2017) Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical volcanism. Proc Natl Acad Sci 114(8):1822–1826. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1612505114
Stoffel M, Khodri M, Corona C, Guillet S, Poulain V, Bekki S, Guiot J, Luckman BH, Oppenheimer C, Lebas N, Beniston M, Masson-Delmotte V (2015) Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,500 years. Nat Geosci 8(10):784–788. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2526
Swingedouw D, Mignot J, Ortega P, Khodri M, Menegoz M, Cassou C, Hanquiez V (2017) Impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the main climate variability modes. Global Planet Change 150:24–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.01.006
Tejedor E, Steiger NJ, Smerdon JE, Serrano-Notivoli R, Vuille M (2021a) Global hydroclimatic response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last millennium. Proc Natl Acad Sci 118(12):e2019145118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2019145118
Tejedor E, Steiger N, Smerdon JE, Serrano-Notivoli R, Vuille M (2021b) Global temperature responses to large tropical volcanic eruptions in paleo data assimilation products and climate model simulations over the last millennium. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 36(4):e2020PA004128. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004128
Thomason LW, Ernest N, Millan L, Rieger L, Bourassa A, Vernier JP, Manney G, Luo BP, Arfeuille F, Peter T (2018) A global space-based stratospheric aerosol climatology: 1979–2016. Earth Syst Sci Data 10(1):469–492. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-469-2018
Timmreck C (2012) Modeling the climatic effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 3(6):545–564. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.192
Timmreck C, Graf HF, Lorenz SJ, Niemeier U, Zanchettin D, Matei D, Jungclaus JH, Crowley TJ (2010) Aerosol size confines climate response to volcanic super-eruptions. Geophys Res Lett 37:L24705. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl045464
Timmreck C, Mann GW, Aquila V, Hommel R, Lee LA, Schmidt A, Brühl C, Carn S, Chin M, Dhomse SS, Diehl T, English JM, Mills MJ, Neely R, Sheng J, Toohey M, Weisenstein D (2018) The Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP): motivation and experimental design. Geosci Model Dev 11(7):2581–2608. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2581-2018
Toohey M, Krüger K, Niemeier U, Timmreck C (2011) The influence of eruption season on the global aerosol evolution and radiative impact of tropical volcanic eruptions. Atmos Chem Phys 11(23):12,351–12,367. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12351-2011
Toohey M, Krüger K, Timmreck C (2013) Volcanic sulfate deposition to Greenland and Antarctica: A modeling sensitivity study. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(10):4788–4800. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50428
Toohey M, Krüger K, Bittner M, Timmreck C, Schmidt H (2014) The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure. Atmos Chem Phys 14(23):13,063–13,079. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13063-2014
Toohey M, Krüger K, Sigl M, Stordal F, Svensen H (2016) Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages. Clim Change 136(3–4):401–412. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7
Toohey M, Krüger K, Schmidt H, Timmreck C, Sigl M, Stoffel M, Wilson R (2019) Disproportionately strong climate forcing from extratropical explosive volcanic eruptions. Nat Geosci 12(2):100–107. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0286-2
Toohey M, Sigl M (2017) Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE. Earth Syst Sci Data 9(2):809–831. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-809-2017
Trenberth KE, Dai A (2007) Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering. Geophys Res Lett 34(15) https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl030524
van Dijk E, Jungclaus J, Lorenz S, Timmreck C, Krüger K (2021) Was there a volcanic induced long lasting cooling over the Northern Hemisphere in the mid 6th–7th century? Clim past Discuss 1–33. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-49
Vernier J-P, Thomason LW, Pommereau J-P, Bourassa A, Pelon J, Garnier A, Hauchecorne A, Blanot L, Trepte C, Degenstein D, Vargas F (2011) Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade. Geophys Res Lett 38(12):L12807. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047563
Vernier J-P, Fairlie TD, Deshler T, Natarajan M, Knepp T, Foster K, Wienhold FG, Bedka KM, Thomason L, Trepte C (2016) In situ and space-based observations of the Kelud volcanic plume: The persistence of ash in the lower stratosphere. J Geophys Res Atmos 121(18):11,104–11,118. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025344
von Savigny C, Timmreck C, Buehler SA, Burrows JP, Giorgetta M, Hegerl G, Horvath A, Hoshyaripour G, Hoose C, Quaas J, Malinina E, Rozanov A, Schmidt H, Thomason L, Toohey M, Vogel B (2020) The Research Unit VolImpact: Revisiting the volcanic impact on atmosphere and climate - preparations for the next big volcanic eruption. Meteorol Z 29(1):3–18. https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2019/0999
Waite AJ, Klavans JM, Clement AC, Murphy LN, Liebetrau V, Eisenhauer A, Weger RJ, Swart PK (2020) Observational and model evidence for an important role for volcanic forcing driving Atlantic multidecadal variability over the last 600 years. Geophys Res Lett 47(23):e2020GL089428. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089428
Wilson R, Anchukaitis K, Briffa KR, Buntgen U, Cook E, D’Arrigo R, Davi N, Esper J, Frank D, Gunnarson B, Hegerl G, Helama S, Klesse S, Krusic PJ, Linderholm HW, Myglan V, Osborn TJ, Rydval M, Schneider L, Schurer A, Wiles G, Zhang P, Zorita E (2016) Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context. Quat Sci Rev 134:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005
Yang W, Vecchi GA, Fueglistaler S, Horowitz LW, Luet DJ, Muñoz ÁG, Paynter D, Underwood S (2019) Climate impacts from large volcanic eruptions in a high-resolution climate model: the importance of forcing structure. Geophys Res Lett 46(13):7690–7699. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082367
Yoshimori M, Stocker TF, Raible CC, Renold M (2005) Externally forced and internal variability in ensemble climate simulations of the Maunder Minimum. J Clim 18(20):4253–4270. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3537.1
Young RE, Houben H, Toon OB (1994) Radiatively forced dispersion of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cloud and induced temperature perturbations in the stratosphere during the first few months following the eruption. Geophys Res Lett 21(5):369–372. https://doi.org/10.1029/93GL03302
Zambri B, Robock A (2016) Winter warming and summer monsoon reduction after volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations. Geophys Res Lett 43(20):10,920–10,928. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070460
Zambri B, LeGrande AN, Robock A, Slawinska J (2017) Northern Hemisphere winter warming and summer monsoon reduction after volcanic eruptions over the last millennium. J Geophys Res Atmos 122(15):7971–7989. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026728
Zanchettin D, Timmreck C, Graf HF, Rubino A, Lorenz S, Lohmann K, Krüger K, Jungclaus JH (2012) Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Clim Dyn 39(1):419–444. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1167-1
Zanchettin D, Timmreck C, Bothe O, Lorenz SJ, Hegerl G, Graf HF, Luterbacher J, Jungclaus JH (2013) Delayed winter warming: A robust decadal response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions? Geophys Res Lett 40(1):204–209. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl054403
Zanchettin D, Bothe O, Timmreck C, Bader J, Beitsch A, Graf HF, Notz D, Jungclaus JH (2014) Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill). Earth Syst Dynam 5(1):223–242. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-223-2014
Zanchettin D, Khodri M, Timmreck C, Toohey M, Schmidt A, Gerber EP, Hegerl G, Robock A, Pausata FSR, Ball WT, Bauer SE, Bekki S, Dhomse SS, LeGrande AN, Mann GW, Marshall L, Mills M, Marchand M, Niemeier U, Poulain V, Rozanov E, Rubino A, Stenke A, Tsigaridis K, Tummon F (2016) The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6. Geosci Model Dev 9(8):2701–2719. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016
Zanchettin D, Timmreck C, Toohey M, Jungclaus JH, Bittner M, Lorenz SJ, Rubino A (2019) Clarifying the relative role of forcing uncertainties and initial-condition unknowns in spreading the climate response to volcanic eruptions. Geophys Res Lett 46(3):1602–1611. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081018
Zanchettin D, Timmreck C, Khodri M, Schmidt A, Toohey M, Abe M, Bekki S, Cole J, Fang SW, Feng W, Hegerl G, Johnson B, Lebas N, LeGrande AN, Mann GW, Marshall L, Rieger L, Robock A, Rubinetti S, Tsigaridis K, Weierbach H (2022) Effects of forcing differences and initial conditions on inter-model agreement in the VolMIP volc-pinatubo-full experiment. Geosci Model Dev 15(5):2265–2292. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022
Zhu F, Emile-Geay J, Anchukaitis KJ, Hakim GJ, Wittenberg A, Morales M, Toohey M, King J (2022) A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation. Nat Commun 13(1):747. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28210-1
Zhu Y, Toon OB, Jensen EJ, Bardeen CG, Mills MJ, Tolbert MA, Yu P, Woods S (2020) Persisting volcanic ash particles impact stratospheric SO2 lifetime and aerosol optical properties. Nat Commun 11(1):4526. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18352-5
Zhuo Z, Gao C, Kirchner I, Cubasch U (2020) Impact of volcanic aerosols on the hydrology of the Asian monsoon and westerlies-dominated subregions: comparison of proxy and multimodel ensemble means. J Geophys Res Atmos 125(18):e2020JD032831. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd032831
Zhuo Z, Kirchner I, Pfahl S, Cubasch U (2021) Climate impact of volcanic eruptions: the sensitivity to eruption season and latitude in MPI-ESM ensemble experiments. Atmos Chem Phys 21(17):13,425–13,442. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021
Zuo M, Man W, Zhou T (2021) Dependence of global monsoon response to volcanic eruptions on the background oceanic states. J Clim 34(20):8273–8289. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0891.1
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Thomas Aubry for insightful discussions and comments, and an anonymous reviewer, Mark Jellinek and Andrew Harris for their reviews, which have greatly improved this manuscript. LM and AS were funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant VOL-CLIM (NE/S000887/1). AS was also funded by NERC grant NE/S00436X/1 (V-PLUS). CT was funded from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Research Unit VolImpact (FOR2820, Grant No. 398006378). AR was funded by U.S. National Science Foundation grant AGS-2017113. EM benefits from an Early Career Fellowship funded jointly by the Leverhulme Trust and Isaac Newton Trust. The authors acknowledge the important role that various activities have played in fostering interdisciplinary research on volcanoes and climate, including: the Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society (VICS) working group of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climate response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) and the Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate (SSiRC) activity.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
LM and AS formulated the initial proposal, with revisions from all authors. LM wrote the initial draft. EM and CT wrote parts of the manuscript, and AS, AR and MT substantially reviewed and edited the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing Interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Editorial responsibility: J.H. Fink
This paper constitutes part of a topical collection: Looking Backwards and Forwards in Volcanology: A Collection of Perspectives on the Trajectory of a Science
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
About this article
Cite this article
Marshall, L.R., Maters, E.C., Schmidt, A. et al. Volcanic effects on climate: recent advances and future avenues. Bull Volcanol 84, 54 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01559-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01559-3