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Intraspecific niche models for the invasive ambrosia beetle Xylosandrus crassiusculus suggest contrasted responses to climate change

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Abstract

Xylosandrus crassiusculus is an invasive ambrosia beetle comprising two differentiated genetic lineages, named cluster 1 and cluster 2. These lineages invaded different parts of the world at different periods of time. We tested whether they exhibited different climatic niches using Schoener’s D and Hellinger’s I indices and modeled their current potential geographical ranges using the Maxent algorithm. The resulting models were projected according to future and recent past climate datasets for Europe and the Mediterranean region. The future projections were performed for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 using 3 SSPs and 5 GCMs. The genetic lineages exhibited different climate niches. Parts of Europe, the Americas, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Oceania were evaluated as suitable for cluster 1. Parts of Europe, South America, Central and South Africa, Asia, and Oceania were considered as suitable for cluster 2. Models projection under future climate scenarios indicated a decrease in climate suitability in Southern Europe and an increase in North Eastern Europe in 2071–2100. Most of Southern and Western Europe was evaluated as already suitable for both clusters in the early twentieth century. Our results show that large climatically suitable regions still remain uncolonized and that climate change will affect the geographical distribution of climatically suitable areas. Climate conditions in Europe were favorable in the twentieth century, suggesting that the recent colonization of Europe is rather due to an increase in propagule pressure via international trade than to recent environmental changes.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their careful reading of our manuscript and their many insightful comments and suggestions.

Funding

Funding was provided by European project LIFE17 NAT/IT/000609.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. INRAE, URZF, 45075, Orléans, France

    T. Urvois, M.-A. Auger‑Rozenberg & A. Roques

  2. UMR CBGP, INRAE, CIRAD, IRD, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France

    T. Urvois, C. Kerdelhué & J.-P. Rossi

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  1. T. Urvois
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  2. M.-A. Auger‑Rozenberg
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  3. A. Roques
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  4. C. Kerdelhué
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Contributions

CK, MAAR, JPR, and AR conceived and designed the study. TU collected the data. TU and JPR analyzed the data and made the figures. TU, JPR, and CK wrote the manuscript; other authors provided editorial advice.

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Correspondence to J.-P. Rossi.

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The authors have not disclosed any conflict of interest.

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Communicated by Sebastian Seibold.

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Urvois, T., Auger‑Rozenberg, MA., Roques, A. et al. Intraspecific niche models for the invasive ambrosia beetle Xylosandrus crassiusculus suggest contrasted responses to climate change. Oecologia (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-024-05528-9

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