Abstract
Objective
This study aimed to identify and project the epidemiological trends and the burden of lung cancer in China.
Methods
We extracted incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates of lung cancer in China, between 1990 and 2019, from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2019). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was applied to quantify the trends of lung cancer burden. Furthermore, we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project the incidence and mortality in the next decade.
Results
From 1990 to 2019, the estimated national number of lung cancer incident cases increased by 224.0% to 832,920, deaths increased by 195.4% to 757,170 and DALYs increased by 146.1% to 17,128,580, respectively. Meanwhile, the ASIR, ASMR and ASDR showed an upward trend (EAPC of 1.33, 0.94 and 0.42, respectively). The ASIR and ASMR among males were about 2 times more than females, but the increase in ASIR in females (EAPC = 2.24) was more obvious than those in males (EAPC = 0.10) from 2020 to 2030. In China, smoking remained responsible for the highest burden of lung cancer, but the contribution of ambient particulate matter pollution to DALYs increased from 10.6% in 1990 to 22.5% in 2019 in total population. Moreover, we predicted that the number of deaths from lung cancer will increase by 42.7% in China by 2030.
Conclusion
In China, the burden of lung cancer has been increasing over the past three decades, which highlights more targeted intervention measures are needed to reduce the burden of lung cancer.
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Data availability
All data could be extracted from online data (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool).
Abbreviations
- DALYs:
-
Disability-adjusted life-years
- EAPC:
-
Estimated annual percentage change
- ASIR:
-
Age-standardized incidence rate
- ASMR:
-
Age-standardized mortality rate
- ASDR:
-
Age-standardized DALY rate
- UI:
-
Uncertainty interval
- CI:
-
Confidence interval
- GBD:
-
Global burden of disease;
- BAPC:
-
Bayesian age-period-cohort
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Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the countless individuals who have contributed to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in various capacities. We would like to thank all authors who have contributed to the manuscript.
Funding
This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFF1201101), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82103912, 82173591 and 81973116), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2021M700080), and the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation (ZR2020QH302). The funders were not involved in the collection, analysis or interpretation of the data, or the writing or submitting of this report.
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Guarantor of integrity of the entire study: XRY, ML; study concepts and design: XRY, ML; literature research: all authors; data analysis: YF, ZL, HC, TCZ, XLY, JYM; statistical analysis: XRY, YF; manuscript preparation: XRY, YF; manuscript editing: XRY, ML.
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The GBD 2019 study is a publicly available database and all data were anonymous. Our study protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Boards of Qilu Hospital of Shandong University with approval number KYLL-202011(KS)-239.
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432_2022_4217_MOESM1_ESM.jpg
Supplementary file1 Figure S1. Mortality rate (A) and DALYs rate (C) of lung cancer by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 in China; EAPC of mortality rate (B) and EAPC of DALYs rate (D) of lung cancer by age and sex in 2019 in China. DALYs, disability-adjusted life-years; EAPC, estimated annual percentage change. (JPG 2018 KB)
432_2022_4217_MOESM2_ESM.jpg
Supplementary file2 Figure S2. Numbers and age-standardized incidence (A), mortality (B) and DALYs (C) of lung cancer per 100,000 population by sex in China from 1990 to 2019. Shading represents the upper and lower limits of the 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs). DALYs, disability-adjusted life-years. (JPG 2918 KB)
432_2022_4217_MOESM3_ESM.jpg
Supplementary file3 Figure S3. Rates of DALYs of lung cancer attributable to risk factors by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 in China. (A) Both; (B) Men; (C) Women. (JPG 2182 KB)
432_2022_4217_MOESM4_ESM.docx
Supplementary file4 Table S1. The number of incident cases and the incidence rates of lung cancer in China in 1990 and 2019 and the estimated annual percentage changes from 1990 to 2019. Table S2. The number of deaths and the mortality rates of lung cancer in China in 1990 and 2019 and the estimated annual percentage changes from 1990 to 2019. Table S3. The number of DALYs and the DALYs rates of lung cancer in China in 1990 and 2019 and the estimated annual percentage changes from 1990 to 2019. (DOCX 37 KB)
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Fang, Y., Li, Z., Chen, H. et al. Burden of lung cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol 149, 3209–3218 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-022-04217-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-022-04217-5