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The impact of age mimicry bias on the accuracy of methods for age estimation based on Kvaal’s pulp/tooth ratios: a bootstrap study

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Abstract

Introduction

Methods based on pulp/tooth ratios proposed by Kvaal et al. (1995) have been widely used for age estimation in adults. The tendency of age estimates to mimic the age structure of the reference population, i.e. age mimicry bias, is a possible source of controversy in the results of studies. The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of age mimicry bias on the accuracy of the original Kvaal’s method and its recent modification proposed by Roh et al. (2018).

Method and material

The study sample comprised 240 cone-beam computed tomography scans of an Iranian population. The bootstrap procedure was used to study the impact of age mimicry bias on age estimates by constructing reference populations with different age structures. The accuracy of Kvaal’s and Roh’s variables for age estimation was assessed using a twofold cross-validation technique and principal component analysis.

Results

The application of original equations resulted in SEE values highly greater than the acceptable threshold for forensic purposes (10 years). The population-specific equations obtained SEE values of 9.18, 11.03, and 9.22 years using Kvaal’s variables and 9.19, 11.13, and 9.14 years using Roh’s variable for the maxillary, mandibular, and all teeth, respectively. The bootstrap procedure revealed that using uneven reference populations to formulate the equation resulted in significantly greater SEEs (almost all >10 years) that were not acceptable for forensic purposes. Moreover, using an older (a younger) reference population contributed to a sharp rise in the amount of over- (under-) estimation for younger (older) age groups.

Conclusion

Age mimicry bias had an undesirable impact on the accuracy of dental age estimation based on Kvaal’s and Roh’s methods. The accuracy of the original equations was low for age estimation in the Iranian sample. However, the performance of the population-specific equations was reasonably acceptable for the maxillary and all six teeth.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Vice-Chancellory of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences for supporting this research (Grant# IR.Sums.Dental.REC.1398.087). This manuscript is based on the thesis by Dr Alireza Ghafoori.

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Shiraz University of Medical Sciences

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Oral and Dental Disease Research Center, Department of Dental Public Health, School of Dentistry, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran

    Mehrdad Vossoughi

  2. Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Radiology, School of Dentistry, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran

    Najmeh Movahhedian

  3. Undergraduate Student, Student Research Committee, School of Dentistry, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran

    Alireza Ghafoori

Authors
  1. Mehrdad Vossoughi
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  2. Najmeh Movahhedian
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  3. Alireza Ghafoori
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Najmeh Movahhedian, Mehrdad Vossoughi, and Alireza Ghafoori. The first draft of the manuscript, revision and edition was done by Najmeh Movahhedian and Mehrdad Vossoughi. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Najmeh Movahhedian.

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Human Ethics Review Committee of the Faculty of Dentistry, University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran (#IR.Sums.Dental.REC.1398.087). The images were taken for various purposes other than the present study and written informed consent had been obtained from all the patients at the time of exposure for the possible use of their anonymous information in future researches.

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Vossoughi, M., Movahhedian, N. & Ghafoori, A. The impact of age mimicry bias on the accuracy of methods for age estimation based on Kvaal’s pulp/tooth ratios: a bootstrap study. Int J Legal Med 136, 269–278 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-021-02651-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-021-02651-7

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