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Moisture sources for the genesis of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal using the lagrangian FLEXPART model

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Abstract

Sources of moisture-feeding for the incipient tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are least explored. Using a three-dimensional Lagrangian model running with NCEP-FNL data, the present work identified various source locations and major transport routes that contributed moisture to pre- and post-monsoon TCs genesis (TCG) over the BoB. The clustered mean trajectories identified using the k-means method demonstrated that moisture transport towards the TCG region during pre-monsoon is dominated by intense low-level westerly/south-westerly trajectories propagating across the North Indian Ocean covering the Somalia coast and the Arabian Sea. Meanwhile, during post-monsoon, north-easterly/easterly trajectories are more prevalent and bring moisture to the BoB TCG region from the South China Sea and North-West Pacific. Moreover, the study highlights the spatiotemporal variations of moisture uptake (MU) pattern and its contribution and demonstrates that robust MU with a contribution of 20–90% occurs locally before three days of TCG. Meanwhile, remote sources contribute a moisture amount of ≤ 20%. Furthermore, the composite analysis of different diagnostic parameters confirms that identified MU at the local scale is attributed to an evaporation process in association with a dynamic uplifting mechanism caused by an anomalous cyclonic circulation, which provides moisture for TCG, while the horizontal advection is the mechanism, which gradually builds moisture required for the TCG from the remote sources.

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Data availability

All observed and reanalysis dataset used in this study are freely available for public. RMSC IMD TCs best tracks datasets were obtained from https://rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/. The ECMWF-ERA5 data were retrieved from https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/. The NCEP-FNL analysis data used in the study are accessed from RDA, UCAR, NCAR USA (https://rda.ucar.edu/). The FLEXPART model can be obtained from https://www.flexpart.eu/wiki/FpRoadmap. Analysed information of this study can be provided upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge RMSC, IMD for providing the best-track data of tropical cyclones. The authors are also thankful to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) for making available of the datasets. The first author would like to acknowledge the National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, for the financial support to carry out this research work. Authors wish to thank the anonymous reviewers for the critical technical comments and constructive suggestions which helped to improve the content of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Rourkela, 769008, India

    Mohan Murali Krishna Gorja & Naresh Krishna Vissa

  2. Weather and Climate Research Group, National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki, 517112, Tirupati, India

    Yesubabu Viswanadhapalli

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  1. Mohan Murali Krishna Gorja
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Contributions

M.M.K.G - Conceptualization, Methodology, Data curation, Simulations, Investigation, Formal analysis, Writing-Original draft preparation; N.K.V & Y.V - Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing-Reviewing & Editing, Supervision. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Naresh Krishna Vissa.

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Gorja, M.M.K., Vissa, N.K. & Viswanadhapalli, Y. Moisture sources for the genesis of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal using the lagrangian FLEXPART model. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07269-0

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