Abstract
The co-occurrence of the East Asia–Pacific (EAP) and the Silk-Road (SR) modes is found to have a more pronounced impact on summer rainfall over southern China compared to any single mode, causing huge economic losses. Based on daily ERA5 reanalysis data, this study identifies 25 typical positive EAP (+ EAP) and negative SR (-SR) combination pattern events during the summer of 1979–2023. The + EAP/-SR combination pattern is accompanied by significantly enhanced rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) compared to the other three combination patterns. The coupling of the + EAP and -SR modes contributes to a strengthened western Pacific subtropical high and a deep cyclonic system over northeastern Asia, favoring the maintenance of the Mei-yu front and enhanced rainfall over the YHRB. The energy budget and dynamical mechanisms of the + EAP/-SR combination pattern are further analyzed. The + EAP/-SR combination pattern can efficiently extract available potential energy through baroclinic energy conversion. In addition, the co-occurrence of suppressed convection over the Philippine Sea (SCPS) and enhanced rainfall over southern Europe (ERSE) is conducive to the + EAP/-SR combination pattern. On the one hand, the SCPS and the associated diabatic cooling effect could generate a poleward Rossby wave train, promoting the formation of the + EAP mode. On the other hand, the ERSE enhances divergence anomalies and negative Rossby wave source in the upper troposphere, contributing to the propagation of the -SR mode along the midlatitude westerly jet. The development of the -SR mode also strengthens the anomaly center of the + EAP mode over the Okhotsk region. A linear baroclinic model is applied to verify the above-mentioned physical mechanisms. Model results support the crucial roles of the SCPS and the ERSE and also confirm the contribution of the -SR mode to the + EAP mode over the Okhotsk region. These findings deepen our understanding of the + EAP/-SR combination pattern and have important implications for subseasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the YHRB.
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Data availability
The ERA5 reanalysis data, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation data and OLR data are available from the following websites: https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-data-store, https://ccrc.iap.ac.cn/resource/detail?id=228 and https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/climate-data-records/outgoing-longwave-radiation-daily, respectively. Other data applied in this study are available upon request from the authors.
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Acknowledgements
This research is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41975085), the Opening Fund of Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & CMA Key Laboratory of Straits Severe Weather (2023KFKT01) and the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX23_1327). We acknowledge the High-Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology for their support of this work.
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41975085), the Opening Fund of Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & CMA Key Laboratory of Straits Severe Weather (2023KFKT01) and Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX23_1327).
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L. J. Wang contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by D. L. Liu and L. J. Wang. The first draft of the manuscript was written by D. L. Liu. L. J. Wang and Z. Y. Guan reviewed the manuscript. D. L. Liu and R. J. Bao revised the manuscript.
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Liu, D., Wang, L., Guan, Z. et al. Maintenance mechanism for the summertime + EAP/-SR combination pattern. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07224-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07224-z