Abstract
State-of-the-art coupled models have several limitations in representing the phase and amplitude characteristics of monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO). Specifically, the models’ deficiencies in predicting stronger active spells have been widely reported in earlier studies. In the present study, we endeavour to overcome this limitation by improving the representation of the diurnal cycle of the sea surface temperature and the associated feedback processes. In the present study, we demonstrate that resolving the diurnal cycle rectification along with implementing a modern bulk surface-flux algorithm in a global coupled model improves the simulation of MISO characteristics. The present analysis showcases how rectification in the presence of a revised turbulent flux algorithm and diurnal skin temperature parameterisation can modulate the oceanic, atmospheric, and interfacial properties so that the coupled model can better simulate stronger active monsoon spells. The essential requirements for the coherent northward propagation mechanisms of MISOs are pronounced in the presence of intra-seasonal rectification by diurnal SSTs and air–sea interactive flux feedbacks.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The coupled model hindcast datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are not publicly available due to its large size but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
References
Ajayamohan RS, Rao SA, Yamagata T (2008) Influence of Indian ocean dipole on poleward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations. J Clim 21(21):5437. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1758.1
Alexander G, Keshavamurty RN, De US, Chellappa R, Das SK (1978) Fluctuations of monsoon activity. Mausam 29(1):76–87. https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v29i1.2862
Beljaars ACM, Holtslag AAM (1991) Flux parameterization over land surfaces for atmospheric models. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 30(3):327–341. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1991)030
Bellenger H, Duvel J-P (2009) An analysis of tropical ocean diurnal warm layers. J Clim 22(13):3629–3646. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2598.1
Bellenger H, Takayabu YN, Ushiyama T, Yoneyama K (2010) Role of diurnal warm layers in the diurnal cycle of Convection over the tropical Indian ocean during MISMO. Mon Weather Rev Am Meteorol Soc 138(6):2426–2433. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3249.1
Bentamy A, Piolle JF, Grouazel A, Danielson R, Gulev S, Paul F, Azelmat H, Mathieu PP, von Schuckmann K, Sathyendranath S, Evers-King H (2017) Review and assessment of latent and sensible heat flux accuracy over the global oceans. Remote Sens Environ 201:196–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.08.016
Bernie DJ, Woolnough SJ, Slingo JM, Guilyardi E (2005) Modeling diurnal and intraseasonal variability of the ocean mixed layer. J Clim Am Meteorol 18(8):1190–1202. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3319.1
Bernie DJ, Guilyardi E, Madec G, Slingo JM, Woolnough SJ (2007) Impact of resolving the diurnal cycle in an ocean–atmosphere GCM. Part 1: a diurnally forced OGCM. Clim Dyn 29(6):575–590. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-007-0249-6
Brunke MA, Zeng X, Misra V, Beljaars A (2008) Integration of a prognostic sea surface skin temperature scheme into weather and climate models. J Geophys Res Atmos 113(21):D21117. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010607
Chen SS, Houze RA (1997) Diurnal variation and life-cycle of deep convective systems over the tropical pacific warm pool. Quart J Roy Meteorol Soc 123(538):357–388. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712353806
Clayson CA, Bogdanoff AS (2013) The effect of diurnal sea surface temperature warming on climatological air–sea fluxes. J Clim 26(8):2546–2556. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00062.1
Curry JA, Bentamy A, Bourassa MA, Bourras D, Bradley EF, Brunke M, Castro S, Chou SH, Clayson CA, Emery WJ, Eymard L, Fairall CW, Kubota M, Lin B, Perrie W, Reeder RA, Renfrew IA, Rossow WB, Schulz J, Smith SR, Webster PJ, Wick GA, Zeng X (2004) SEAFLUX. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85(3):409–424. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-3-409
Dai A, Trenberth KE (2004) The diurnal cycle and its depiction in the community climate system model. J Clim 17(5):930–951. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0930:TDCAID>2.0.CO;2
Dunning CM, Turner AG, Brayshaw DJ (2015) The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India. Environ Res Lett 10(6):064002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064002
Dutta U, Hazra A, Chaudhari HS, Saha SK, Pokhrel S, Shiu CJ, Chen JP (2021) Role of microphysics and convective autoconversion for the better simulation of tropical intraseasonal oscillations (MISO and MJO). J Adv Model Earth Syst. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002540
Dyer AJ (1974) A review of flux-profile relationships. Bound.-Layer Meteorol 7(3):363–372.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00240838
Fairall CW, Bradley EF, Godfrey JS, Wick GA, Edson JB, Young GS (1996a) Cool-skin and warm-layer effects on sea surface temperature. J Geophys Res Oceans 101(C1):1295–1308. https://doi.org/10.1029/95JC03190
Fairall CW, Bradley EF, Rogers DP, Edson JB, Young GS (1996b) Bulk parameterization of air–sea fluxes for tropical ocean-global atmosphere coupled-ocean atmosphere response experiment. J Phys Res 101(C2):3747. https://doi.org/10.1029/95JC03205
Fairall CW, Bradley EF, Hare JE, Grachev AA, Edson JB (2003) Bulk parameterization of air–sea fluxes: updates and verification for the COARE algorithm. J Clim 16(4):571–591. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0571:BPOASF>2.0.CO;2
Fu X, Wang B, Li T, McCreary JP (2003) Coupling between northward-propagating, intraseasonal oscillations and sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. J Atmos Sci 60(15):1733–1753. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<1733:CBNIOA>2.0.CO;2
Ganai M, Mukhopadhyay P, Krishna RPM, Abhik S, Halder M (2019) Revised cloud and convective parameterization in CFSv2 improve the underlying processes for northward propagation of intraseasonal oscillations as proposed by the observation-based study. Clim Dyn 53(5–6):2793. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04657-9
Goswami BN, Ajaya Mohan RS (2001) Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1180:IOAIVO>2.0.CO;2
Goswami BN, Shukla J (1984) Quasi-periodic oscillations in a symmetric general circulation model. J Atmos Sci. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1984)041<0020:qpoias>2.0.co;2
Goswami BB, Deshpande M, Mukhopadhyay P, Saha SK, Rao SA, Murthugudde R, Goswami BN (2014) Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal variability in NCEP CFSv2 and its role on systematic bias. Clim Dyn 43(9–10):2725–2745
Guemas V, Salas-Mélia D, Kageyama M, Giordani H, Voldoire A (2011) Impact of the ocean mixed layer diurnal variations on the intraseasonal variability of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. J Clim 24(12):2889–2914. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3660.1
Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Bolvin DT, Nelkin EJ (2010) The TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA). Satellite rainfall applications for surface hydrology. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2915-7_1
Jiang X, Li T, Wang B (2004) Structures and mechanisms of the northward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1022:SAMOTN>2.0.CO;2
Kawai Y, Wada A (2007) Diurnal sea surface temperature variation and its impact on the atmosphere and ocean: a review. J Oceanogr 63(5):721–744. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10872-007-0063-0
Kemball-Cook S, Wang B (2001) Equatorial waves and air–sea interaction in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2923:EWAASI>2.0.CO;2
Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y, Ebita A, Moriya M, Onoda H, Onogi K, Kamahori H, Kobayashi C, Endo H, Miyaoka K, Kiyotoshi T (2015) The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics. J Meteorologic Soc Jpn. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001
Krishnamurti TN, Subrahmanyam D (1982) The 30–50 day mode at 850 mb during MONEX. J Atmos Sci. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<2088:TDMAMD>2.0.CO;2
Krishnamurti TN, Oosterhof DK, Mehta AV (1988) Air–sea interaction on the time scale of 30 to 50 days. J Atmos Sci. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<1304:AIOTTS>2.0.CO;2
Kumar BP, Vialard J, Lengaigne M, Murty VSN, McPhaden MJ (2011) TropFlux: air–sea fluxes for the global tropical oceans—description and evaluation. Clim Dyn 38(7):1521–1543. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-011-1115-0
Large WG, Yeager SG (2009) The global climatology of an interannually varying air–sea flux data set. Clim Dyn 33:2–3. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0441-3
Li Y, Han W, Wang W, Zhang L, Ravichandran M (2018) The Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in CFSv2 forecasts: biases and importance of improving air–sea interaction processes. J Clim 31(14):5351. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0623.1
Madden RA, Julian PR (1971) Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J Atmos Sci 28(5):702–708. 10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0702:doadoi>2.0.co;2
Masson S, Terray P, Madec G, Luo JJ, Yamagata T, Takahashi K (2012) Impact of intra-daily SST variability on ENSO characteristics in a coupled model. Clim Dyn 39(3):681–707. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1247-2
Mujumdar M, Salunke K, Rao SA, Ravichandran M, Goswami BN (2011) Diurnal cycle induced amplification of sea surface temperature intraseasonal oscillations over the bay of Bengal in summer monsoon season. IEEE Geosci Remote Sens Lett 8(2):206–210. https://doi.org/10.1109/LGRS.2010.2060183
Pradhan M, Rao SA, Bhattacharya A, Balasubramanian S (2022) Improvements in diurnal cycle and its impact on seasonal mean by incorporating COARE Flux Algorithm in CFS. Front Clim 3:198. https://doi.org/10.3389/FCLIM.2021.792980/BIBTEX
Prasanna V (2014) Impact of monsoon rainfall on the total foodgrain yield over India. J Earth Syst Sci 123(5):1129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-014-0444-x
Rao SA, Goswami BN, Sahai AK, Rajagopal EN, Mukhopadhyay P, Rajeevan M, Nayak S, Rathore LS, Shenoi SSC, Ramesh KJ et al (2019) Monsoon mission: a targeted activity to improve monsoon prediction across scales. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 100(12):2509–2532
Reeves Eyre JEJ, Zeng X, Zhang K (2021) Ocean surface flux algorithm effects on earth system model energy and water cycles. Front Mar Sci Front. https://doi.org/10.3389/FMARS.2021.642804
Roxy M, Tanimoto Y, Preethi B, Terray P, Krishnan R (2013) Intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region. Clim Dyn 41(1):45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1547-1
Roy A, Murtugudde R, Sahai AK, Narvekar P, Shinde V, Ghosh S (2022) Water savings with irrigation water management at multi-week lead time using extended range predictions. Clim Serv. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CLISER.2022.100320
Sabeerali CT, Ramu Dandi A, Dhakate A, Salunke K, Mahapatra S, Rao SA (2013) Simulation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in the latest CMIP5 coupled GCMs. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(10):4401–4420. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50403
Sabeerali CT, Rao SA, George G, Nagarjuna Rao D, Mahapatra S, Kulkarni A, Murtugudde R (2014) Modulation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in the recent warming period. J Geophys Res 119(9). https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021261
Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp P, Behringer D, Hou YT, Chuang HY, Iredell M, Ek M, Meng J, Yang R, Mendez MP, van den Dool H, Zhang Q, Wang W, Chen M, Becker E (2014) The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 27(6):2185–2208. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1
Sengupta D, Goswami BN, Senan R (2001) Coherent intraseasonal oscillations of ocean and atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 28(21):4127–4130. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013587
Seo KH, Schemm JKE, Wang W, Kumar A (2007) The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation simulated in the NCEP climate forecast system: the effect of sea surface temperature. Mon Weather Rev 135(5):1807. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3369.1
Seo H, Subramanian AC, Miller AJ, Cavanaugh NR (2014) Coupled impacts of the diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature on the Madden-Julian oscillation. J Clim 27(22):8422. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00141.1
Sharmila S, Pillai PA, Joseph S, Roxy M, Krishna RPM, Chattopadhyay R, Abhilash S, Sahai AK, Goswami BN (2013) Role of ocean-atmosphere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO). Clim Dyn 41(5–6):1651. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1854-1
Shinoda T (2005) Impact of the diurnal cycle of solar radiation on intraseasonal SST variability in the western Equatorial Pacific. J Clim Am Meteorol Soc 18(14):2628–2636. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3432.1
Shinoda T, Hendon HH, Glick J (1998) Intraseasonal variability of surface fluxes and sea surface temperature in the tropical Western Pacific and Indian oceans. J Clim Am Meteorol Soc 11(7):1685–1702. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011
Sikka DR, Gadgil S (1980) On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian, longitudes during the Southwest monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 108:1840–1853
Slingo J, Inness P, Neale R, Woolnough S, Yang G (2003) Scale interactions on diurnal toseasonal timescales and their relevanceto model systematic errors. Ann Geophys. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3383
Srivastava A, Rao SA, Rao DN, George G, Pradhan M (2017) Structure, characteristics, and simulation of monsoon low-pressure systems in CFS v2 coupled model. J Geophys Res Oceans 122(8):6394–6415. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012322
Srivastava A, Rao SA, Ghosh S (2022) Impact of riverine fresh water on Indian summer monsoon: coupling a runoff routing model to a global seasonal forecast model. Front Clim 4:902586. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.902586
Thushara V, Vinayachandran PN (2014) Impact of diurnal forcing on intraseasonal sea surface temperature oscillations in the Bay of Bengal. J Geophys Res Oceans 119(12):8221–8241. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009746
Vecchi GA, Harrison DE (2002) Monsoon breaks and subseasonal sea surface temperature variability in the Bay of Bengal. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1485:MBASSS>2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Xie X (1997) A model for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J Atmos Sci. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0072:AMFTBS>2.0.CO;2
Wang W, Chen M, Kumar A (2009) Impacts of ocean surface on the northward propagation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J Clim 22(24). https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3007.1
Wang B, Gadgil S, Rupa Kumar K (2006) The Asian monsoon-agriculture and economy. The Asian Monsoon, pp 651–683
Webster PJ (1983) Mechanisms of monsoon low-frequency variability: surface hydrological effects. J Atmos Sci 40:2110–2124
Webster PJ, Magaña VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103(C7):14451–14510. https://doi.org/10.1029/97jc02719
Wu MLC, Schubert S, Kang IS, Waliser D (2002) Forced and free intraseasonal variability over the south Asian monsoon region simulated by 10 AGCMs. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2862:FAFIVO>2.0.CO;2
Yan Y, Zhang L, Yu Y, Chen C, Xi J, Chai F (2021) Rectification of the intraseasonal SST variability by the diurnal cycle of SST revealed by the global tropical moored buoy array. Geophys Res Lett 48:e2020GL090913. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090913
Yasunari T (1979) Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.57.3_227
Yasunari T (1980) A quasi-stationary appearance of 30 to 40 day period in the cloudiness fluctuations during the summer monsoon over India. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II Meteorol Soc Jpn 58(3):225–229. https://doi.org/10.2151/JMSJ1965.58.3_225
Yu L, Jin X, Weller R (2008) Multidecade global flux datasets from the Objectively Analyzed air–sea Fluxes (OAFlux) Project: latent and sensible heat fluxes, ocean evaporation, and related surface meteorological variables. OAFlux Project Technical Report, OA-2008-01(그림, 74)
Funding
The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Coupled model experiments and analysis were carried out by Maheswar Pradhan. The first draft of the manuscript was written by MP and Dr. SAR and Prof. AB commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Pradhan, M., Rao, S.A. & Bhattacharya, A. Towards a realistic MISO simulation: impact of rectification. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07053-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07053-6