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Study pre- and post-monsoon storms over NIO region using high resolution IMDAA reanalysis dataset

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Abstract

This study analyzed the suitability of using high resolution IMDAA reanalysis for understanding the tropical storms in the North Indian Ocean (NIO). The study evaluates the performance of IMDAA reanalysis by considering 197 storms at different categories (depression to super-cyclone) during the period 1979–2018 over the NIO. It is considered (i) oceanic basins (ii) season of occurrence, (iii) straight movers and recurving/looping storms and (iv) storm intensities. The location and intensity errors of the storms represented in IMDAA are calculated against IMD's best-estimated tracks. The distribution of genesis points of storms has been calculated using the Kernel density estimation approach (KDE). It is noticed that the distribution of storm genesis locations over both the NIO basins, Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB), are displaced in IMDAA reanalysis, both latitudinally and longitudinally, from the observed genesis location. It is also noticed that mean genesis errors are high in the pre-monsoon season as compared to the post-monsoon, in both basins. But the errors are lesser in BoB compared to AS storms in both the cyclone seasons. The IMDAA reanalysis well represented the storm movement with fewer track errors in the case of higher intensity categories of the storm than the low (weaker intensity) category of storms. The right or eastward bias and fast movement of cyclones are observed in the IMDAA reanalysis, which are reduced steadily in the higher categories of TCs mainly in the BoB, and NIO as a whole. The landfall errors (position and time) of the storms are reasonably reduced in recent decades in IMDAA over all the basins than past decades, which may be due availability of more satellite observations. IMDAA reanalysis captured the translation speed of storms from NIO and BoB reasonably well in most of the cases mainly at higher categories of TCs. It is comprehended that the TC intensities are considerably underestimated in IMDAA reanalysis as compared to the observations. Overall, the tracks of the storms are well represented but the intensity and properties associated with the TC environments are not as good in IMDAA reanalysis.

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Data availability

The data and the materials used in the study are collected from publicly (free) and internally available repositories. (1) Best estimated track data available at IMD RMSC site: https://rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/report.php?internal_menu=MzM=. (2) IMDAA reanalysis data sets available at the NCMRWF site: https://rds.ncmrwf.gov.in/.

Code availability

Standard verification methodology applied in this study. The codes are freely available in the public domain.

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Acknowledgements

The authors honestly acknowledge the IMD for providing the best-estimated track dataset, which is used for evaluation purposes in this study. The authors are indebted to the Head, NCMRWF for the incessant support and encouragement. We sincerely thank to the anonymous reviewers and Editor for their valuable suggestions/comments that help to further improvement of the manuscript.

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The authors declared that the particular research work receives no specific grant from any funding agency in public, commercial, or not-for-profit organizations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), A-50, Sector-62, Noida, UP, 201309, India

    A. Routray, Devajyoti Dutta, Srinivas Desamsetti, Shivaji Singh Patel, John P. George & V. S. Prasad

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  2. Devajyoti Dutta
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  3. Srinivas Desamsetti
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Contributions

AR: conceptualization, methodology, writing- original draft preparation. DD: data curation, software, investigation. SD: developed various diagnostic programs, visualization, software. SSP: prepared figures, and processed data in a suitable format. JPG and VSP: supervision, writing—reviewing and editing. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to A. Routray.

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The authors do hereby declare that the work described in this study has not been published previously or not under consideration for publication elsewhere. The submitted research article has been entirely carried by the authors and it has not been submitted earlier either wholly or partly to any other journals in English or any other languages. The research work has not been split up into several parts, the results presented here without any fabrications, manipulation of data, etc. and proper acknowledgments of the data source used in the current study.

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Routray, A., Dutta, D., Desamsetti, S. et al. Study pre- and post-monsoon storms over NIO region using high resolution IMDAA reanalysis dataset. Clim Dyn 62, 555–574 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06933-1

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